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Rangers v Motherwell — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Rangers win
52.8%
Draw
22.1%
Motherwell win
25.1%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.95–1.29 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.75–1.22 1-1 11% 57% 58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to win 52.7% 51.9% 45.9% 1.13× 1.93
Motherwell to win 25.1% 27.5% 30.9% 0.89× 3.63
Draw 22.1% 22.1% 23.4% 0.94× 4.52
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers & both teams score 29.2% 26.4% 18.7% 1.41× 3.79
Rangers & not both score 23.6% 22.6% 27.4% 0.83× 4.42
Draw & both teams score 18.1% 17.8% 17.8% 1.00× 5.63
Motherwell & both teams score 14.9% 12.2% 16.4% 0.74× 8.21
Motherwell & not both score 10.3% 12.1% 14.7% 0.82× 8.24
Draw & not both score 4.0% 3.7% 5.8% 0.63× 27.19
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers & over 1.5 45.1% 46.6% 36.7% 1.27× 2.15
Rangers & over 2.5 37.7% 37.5% 28.2% 1.33× 2.67
Rangers & under 3.5 29.5% 25.5% 30.1% 0.85× 3.92
Rangers & over 3.5 23.2% 21.5% 16.0% 1.35× 4.65
Motherwell & over 1.5 20.1% 21.5% 24.5% 0.88× 4.65
Draw & over 1.5 18.1% 17.6% 17.8% 0.98× 5.69
Motherwell & over 2.5 16.9% 17.6% 20.5% 0.86× 5.69
Motherwell & under 3.5 16.0% 17.6% 22.4% 0.78× 5.70
Rangers & under 2.5 15.1% 17.6% 17.8% 0.98× 5.70
Draw & under 2.5 13.9% 12.7% 14.9% 0.85× 7.86
Draw & under 3.5 13.9% 12.7% 14.9% 0.85× 7.86
Motherwell & over 3.5 9.1% 7.5% 8.7% 0.86× 13.40
Motherwell & under 2.5 8.3% 7.5% 10.6% 0.71× 13.40
Draw & over 2.5 8.2% 7.5% 8.7% 0.86× 13.40
Draw & over 3.5 8.2% 7.5% 8.7% 0.86× 13.40
Rangers & under 1.5 7.6% 7.5% 9.3% 0.80× 13.41
Motherwell & under 1.5 5.0% 7.5% 6.6% 1.12× 13.42
Draw & under 1.5 4.0% 4.6% 5.8% 0.78× 21.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (1UP) 68.6% 72.3% 1.38
Motherwell (1UP) 45.4% 44.4% 2.25
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (2UP) 52.7% 53.9% 1.85
Motherwell (2UP) 25.1% 30.5% 3.28
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to win 2nd half 43.3% 39.5% 2.53
2nd half drawn 31.4% 33.7% 2.97
Motherwell to win 2nd half 25.3% 27.4% 3.65
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell (+2.5) 85.5% 88.9% 87.8% 1.01× 1.13
Rangers (+0.5) 74.9% 73.2% 69.1% 1.06× 1.37
Motherwell (+1.5) 69.4% 69.0% 73.4% 0.94× 1.45
Rangers (-0.5) 52.7% 51.6% 45.9% 1.13× 1.94
Motherwell (+0.5) 47.3% 48.4% 54.1% 0.89× 2.07
Rangers (-1.5) 30.6% 31.0% 26.6% 1.17× 3.23
Motherwell (-0.5) 25.1% 26.8% 30.9% 0.87× 3.73
Rangers (-2.5) 14.5% 11.1% 12.2% 0.91× 9.03
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell to concede 85.8% 89.6% 79.7% 1.13× 1.12
Motherwell clean sheet 14.2% 10.4% 20.3% 0.51× 9.66
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell to concede in 1st half 56.7% 60.2% 1.66
Motherwell clean sheet in 1st half 43.3% 39.8% 2.52
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell under 3.5 goals 95.8% 97.3% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
Motherwell under 2.5 goals 86.0% 88.9% 85.5% 1.04× 1.13
Motherwell over 0.5 goals 72.4% 71.9% 67.0% 1.07× 1.39
Motherwell under 1.5 goals 63.1% 64.2% 63.1% 1.02× 1.56
Motherwell over 1.5 goals 36.9% 35.8% 36.9% 0.97× 2.79
Motherwell under 0.5 goals 27.6% 28.1% 33.0% 0.85× 3.56
Motherwell over 2.5 goals 14.0% 11.1% 14.5% 0.77× 9.00
Motherwell over 3.5 goals 4.2% 2.7% 3.7% 0.72× 37.03
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell under 1.5 in 1st half 90.5% 93.2% 1.07
Motherwell under 0.5 in 1st half 59.7% 59.4% 1.68
Motherwell over 0.5 in 1st half 40.3% 40.6% 2.46
Motherwell over 1.5 in 1st half 9.5% 6.8% 14.65
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (away no bet) 70.5% 74.1% 66.2% 1.12× 1.35
Draw (away no bet) 29.5% 25.9% 33.8% 0.76× 3.87
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell even goals 53.8% 52.4% 57.7% 0.91× 1.91
Motherwell odd goals 46.2% 47.6% 42.3% 1.12× 2.10
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 78.0% 79.7% 1.25
Both halves over 1.5 goals 22.0% 20.3% 4.93
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 73.4% 71.4% 1.40
Both halves under 1.5 goals 26.6% 28.6% 3.50
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 65.2% 64.6% 1.55
Rangers to score 2+ in a row 48.3% 47.8% 2.09
Either team to score 3+ in a row 27.1% 25.2% 3.98
Motherwell to score 2+ in a row 26.1% 25.1% 3.98
Rangers to score 3+ in a row 20.6% 21.7% 4.60
Motherwell to score 3+ in a row 7.0% 7.3% 13.65
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 9.9% 7.3% 9.3% 0.78× 13.73
2-1 9.6% 7.3% 7.1% 1.03× 13.74
1-0 7.6% 7.3% 9.3% 0.78× 13.74
2-0 7.5% 7.3% 8.7% 0.83× 13.75
1-2 6.4% 7.3% 8.9% 0.82× 13.75
3-1 6.2% 7.3% 5.6% 1.30× 13.75
Any other score 5.8% 7.3% 4.1% 1.75× 13.75
2-2 6.2% 7.3% 6.6% 1.10× 13.75
0-1 5.0% 7.3% 6.6% 1.10× 13.76
0-0 4.0% 1.8% 5.8% 0.31× 55.41
3-0 4.8% 1.8% 5.6% 0.32× 55.39
3-2 4.0% 1.8% 2.9% 0.62× 55.41
4-1 3.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.24× 55.43
0-2 3.3% 1.8% 4.1% 0.43× 55.43
1-3 2.7% 1.8% 3.1% 0.58× 55.44
2-3 2.7% 1.8% 2.3% 0.79× 55.44
4-2 2.0% 1.8% 0.6% 2.90× 55.46
0-3 1.4% 1.8% 3.3% 0.54× 55.47
3-3 1.7% 1.8% 2.3% 0.79× 55.47
4-0 2.4% 1.8% 3.5% 0.51× 55.45
4-3 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 2.17× 55.49
4-4 0.3% 1.8% 0.2% 8.68× 55.50
0-4 0.5% 1.8% 0.4% 4.34× 55.50
1-4 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 2.17× 55.49
2-4 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 2.17× 55.49
3-4 0.6% 1.8% 0.4% 4.34× 55.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers leading at HT (DNB) 65.8% 66.8% 1.50
Motherwell leading at HT (DNB) 34.2% 33.2% 3.01
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or Motherwell (12) 77.9% 77.9% 76.6% 1.02× 1.28
Rangers or draw (1X) 74.9% 72.5% 69.1% 1.05× 1.38
Motherwell or draw (X2) 47.3% 48.1% 54.1% 0.89× 2.08
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or draw at HT 78.9% 78.8% 1.27
Rangers or Motherwell at HT 61.7% 63.2% 1.58
Motherwell or draw at HT 59.4% 58.2% 1.72
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or draw (1UP) 74.9% 77.6% 1.29
Motherwell or draw (1UP) 47.3% 55.0% 1.82
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or draw in 2nd half 74.7% 72.6% 1.38
Rangers or Motherwell in 2nd half 68.6% 66.3% 1.51
Motherwell or draw in 2nd half 56.7% 60.5% 1.65
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 57.6% 58.0% 1.73
Neither half drawn 42.4% 42.0% 2.38
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (DNB) 67.7% 68.4% 59.7% 1.14× 1.46
Motherwell (DNB) 32.3% 31.6% 40.3% 0.79× 3.16
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to score first 57.8% 62.1% 1.61
Motherwell to score first 38.2% 37.3% 2.68
No goal scored 4.0% 4.0% 24.83
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 62.2% 57.4% 52.5% 1.09× 1.74
Not both teams to score 37.8% 42.6% 47.5% 0.90× 2.35
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 52.2% 47.0% 43.4% 1.08× 2.13
Not both score & under 2.5 27.3% 31.5% 33.8% 0.93× 3.18
Not both score & over 2.5 10.5% 11.7% 13.9% 0.84× 8.55
Both score & under 2.5 9.9% 8.8% 9.3% 0.94× 11.42
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 78.6% 83.8% 83.8% 1.00× 1.19
Both teams to score 2+ 21.4% 16.2% 16.2% 1.00× 6.16
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 63.9% 65.0% 1.54
Both teams to score in 2nd half 36.1% 35.1% 2.85
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 49.3% 54.7% 1.83
Both score 2nd half only 27.9% 24.8% 4.04
Both score 1st half only 14.6% 11.6% 8.62
Both score in both halves 8.3% 6.5% 15.33
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 77.1% 79.8% 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 22.9% 20.2% 4.95
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 62.9% 63.1% 1.59
A half without a goal 37.1% 36.9% 2.71
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.8% 43.2% 45.9% 0.94× 2.32
4-6 goals 35.9% 35.3% 31.3% 1.13× 2.83
0-1 goals 16.6% 20.7% 21.4% 0.97× 4.84
7+ goals 4.7% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 50.42
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell to score exactly 1 35.5% 34.5% 30.3% 1.14× 2.90
Motherwell to score exactly 0 27.6% 27.1% 33.0% 0.82× 3.69
Motherwell to score exactly 2 22.9% 24.0% 22.6% 1.06× 4.17
Motherwell to score 3+ 14.0% 13.5% 14.5% 0.93× 7.43
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to score 3+ 30.9% 30.5% 23.9% 1.28× 3.28
Rangers to score exactly 1 27.8% 27.1% 31.1% 0.87× 3.69
Rangers to score exactly 2 27.1% 27.1% 25.1% 1.08× 3.70
Rangers to score exactly 0 14.2% 13.5% 20.3% 0.67× 7.39
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers leading at HT 40.6% 41.8% 2.40
Draw at HT 38.3% 36.8% 2.72
Motherwell leading at HT 21.1% 21.2% 4.72
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers -1: 2 47.3% 47.5% 2.10
Rangers -1: 1 30.6% 32.0% 3.13
Rangers -1: X 22.2% 23.9% 4.18
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell (0:1) 47.3% 48.2% 54.1% 0.89× 2.08
Rangers (0:1) 30.6% 34.4% 26.6% 1.30× 2.91
Draw (0:1) 22.2% 24.4% 19.5% 1.25× 4.10
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell (0:2) 69.4% 66.2% 73.4% 0.90× 1.51
Draw (0:2) 16.0% 16.3% 14.5% 1.12× 6.15
Rangers (0:2) 14.5% 11.8% 12.2% 0.96× 8.48
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell (0:3) 85.5% 88.2% 87.8% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (0:3) 8.8% 7.0% 6.8% 1.02× 14.38
Rangers (0:3) 5.8% 6.9% 5.6% 1.23× 14.55
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell (0:4) 94.2% 94.2% 94.4% 1.00× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 3.8% 1.3% 4.8% 0.26× 79.40
Rangers (0:4) 1.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.20× 80.35
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (1:0) 74.9% 74.1% 69.1% 1.07× 1.35
Draw (1:0) 14.7% 11.8% 17.6% 0.67× 8.44
Motherwell (1:0) 10.5% 11.7% 13.5% 0.87× 8.54
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (2:0) 89.5% 89.4% 86.5% 1.03× 1.12
Draw (2:0) 7.0% 6.6% 7.7% 0.86× 15.16
Motherwell (2:0) 3.5% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 36.96
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.9% 48.8% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.6% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 22.5% 23.1% 4.32
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to concede 72.4% 71.2% 67.0% 1.06× 1.41
Rangers clean sheet 27.6% 28.8% 33.0% 0.87× 3.47
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers clean sheet in 1st half 59.7% 59.2% 1.69
Rangers to concede in 1st half 40.3% 40.8% 2.45
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers under 3.5 goals 86.6% 87.8% 92.1% 0.95× 1.14
Rangers over 0.5 goals 85.8% 87.7% 79.7% 1.10× 1.14
Rangers under 2.5 goals 69.1% 68.8% 76.1% 0.90× 1.45
Rangers over 1.5 goals 58.0% 55.7% 48.8% 1.14× 1.79
Rangers under 1.5 goals 42.0% 44.3% 51.2% 0.86× 2.26
Rangers over 2.5 goals 30.9% 31.2% 23.9% 1.31× 3.21
Rangers under 0.5 goals 14.2% 12.3% 20.3% 0.60× 8.16
Rangers over 3.5 goals 13.4% 12.2% 7.9% 1.55× 8.18
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers under 1.5 in 1st half 79.5% 79.4% 1.26
Rangers over 0.5 in 1st half 56.7% 60.0% 1.67
Rangers under 0.5 in 1st half 43.3% 40.0% 2.50
Rangers over 1.5 in 1st half 20.5% 20.6% 4.87
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 46.8% 51.3% 43.1% 1.19× 1.95
Motherwell (home no bet) 53.2% 48.7% 56.9% 0.86× 2.05
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers even goals 51.0% 50.2% 51.7% 0.97× 1.99
Rangers odd goals 49.0% 49.8% 48.3% 1.03× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 25.8% 28.0% 3.57
HT 1-0 21.6% 22.6% 4.42
HT 0-1 13.3% 11.2% 8.92
HT 1-1 11.2% 11.2% 8.95
HT 2-0 9.1% 7.7% 12.98
Any other HT score 6.8% 7.7% 13.01
HT 2-1 4.7% 2.5% 39.73
HT 0-2 3.4% 2.5% 39.80
HT 1-2 2.9% 2.5% 39.84
HT 2-2 1.2% 2.5% 39.93
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers at HT / Rangers at FT 33.0% 34.3% 2.91
Draw at HT / Rangers at FT 16.6% 16.8% 5.97
Motherwell at HT / Motherwell at FT 13.2% 12.0% 8.35
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.1% 12.0% 8.36
Draw at HT / Motherwell at FT 9.7% 6.6% 15.16
Rangers at HT / Draw at FT 5.4% 6.6% 15.26
Motherwell at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.4% 29.32
Motherwell at HT / Rangers at FT 3.2% 3.4% 29.38
Rangers at HT / Motherwell at FT 2.3% 3.4% 29.42
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to score last 57.8% 56.6% 1.77
Motherwell to score last 38.2% 38.1% 2.63
No goal scored 4.0% 4.0% 24.83
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.0% 96.0% 1.04
Rangers to lead by 1 at any time 68.6% 71.0% 1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 55.0% 51.0% 1.96
Motherwell to lead by 1 at any time 45.4% 46.1% 2.17
Rangers to lead by 2 at any time 38.5% 37.3% 2.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 23.0% 19.8% 5.05
Rangers to lead by 3 at any time 17.8% 17.7% 5.66
Motherwell to lead by 2 at any time 16.8% 17.7% 5.67
Motherwell to lead by 3 at any time 5.2% 7.0% 14.28
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.1% 87.8% 86.9% 1.01× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.7% 78.9% 77.0% 1.02× 1.27
1-4 goals 73.4% 73.6% 79.7% 0.92× 1.36
2-5 goals 72.5% 73.6% 71.4% 1.03× 1.36
2-4 goals 60.8% 62.3% 64.1% 0.97× 1.61
3-6 goals 58.1% 58.8% 55.4% 1.06× 1.70
1-3 goals 55.5% 58.7% 61.4% 0.96× 1.70
3-5 goals 51.8% 52.3% 49.8% 1.05× 1.91
2-3 goals 42.8% 43.6% 45.9% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.2% 43.6% 42.5% 1.02× 2.29
4-6 goals 35.9% 38.8% 31.3% 1.24× 2.58
1-2 goals 33.2% 34.1% 37.3% 0.91× 2.93
4-5 goals 29.6% 30.5% 25.7% 1.19× 3.28
5-6 goals 17.9% 18.1% 13.1% 1.39× 5.52
7+ goals 4.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.10× 48.51
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers never behind 50.6% 61.1% 1.64
Motherwell never behind 27.4% 31.0% 3.23
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.8% 50.1% 48.5% 1.03× 1.99
Even number of goals 50.2% 49.9% 51.5% 0.97× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.4% 51.9% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.6% 48.1% 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.2% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.8% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.0% 95.6% 94.2% 1.02× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 89.0% 88.8% 92.5% 0.96× 1.13
Over 1.5 goals 83.4% 81.0% 78.6% 1.03× 1.24
Under 4.5 goals 77.4% 78.2% 85.3% 0.92× 1.28
Over 2.5 goals 62.8% 61.5% 57.1% 1.08× 1.63
Under 3.5 goals 59.4% 57.8% 67.0% 0.86× 1.73
Over 3.5 goals 40.6% 42.2% 33.0% 1.28× 2.37
Under 2.5 goals 37.2% 38.5% 42.9% 0.90× 2.60
Over 4.5 goals 22.6% 21.8% 14.7% 1.48× 4.60
Under 1.5 goals 16.6% 19.0% 21.4% 0.89× 5.26
Over 5.5 goals 11.0% 11.2% 7.5% 1.50× 8.92
Under 0.5 goals 4.0% 4.4% 5.8% 0.75× 22.85
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.0% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 87.6% 88.1% 91.9% 0.96× 1.14
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 79.1% 76.6% 72.8% 1.05× 1.31
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 72.5% 72.1% 82.0% 0.88× 1.39
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.1% 53.1% 43.4% 1.22× 1.89
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.9% 46.9% 56.6% 0.83× 2.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 27.5% 27.9% 18.0% 1.55× 3.58
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 20.9% 23.4% 27.2% 0.86× 4.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 12.4% 11.9% 8.1% 1.48× 8.41
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.0% 2.8% 2.0% 1.42× 35.68
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 84.5% 83.8% 1.19
Over 0.5 in 1st half 74.2% 72.5% 1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half 60.8% 63.0% 1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half 39.2% 37.0% 2.70
Under 0.5 in 1st half 25.8% 27.5% 3.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.5% 16.2% 6.18
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 84.8% 82.1% 1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 70.8% 76.2% 1.31
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 56.2% 54.1% 1.85
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 43.8% 45.9% 2.18
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 29.2% 23.8% 4.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 15.2% 17.9% 5.59
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell not to score in both halves 78.3% 78.1% 1.28
Rangers not to score in both halves 61.9% 62.4% 1.60
Rangers to score in both halves 38.1% 37.6% 2.66
Motherwell to score in both halves 21.7% 21.9% 4.57
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 62.2% 58.1% 52.5% 1.11× 1.72
Only Rangers scores 23.6% 22.9% 27.4% 0.84× 4.37
Only Motherwell scores 10.3% 10.7% 14.7% 0.73× 9.30
Neither team scores 4.0% 3.9% 5.8% 0.67× 25.63
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 21.5% 24.3% 0.89× 4.64
Exactly 2 goals 20.6% 21.5% 21.8% 0.99× 4.64
Exactly 4 goals 18.0% 18.6% 18.5% 1.01× 5.39
Exactly 1 goals 12.6% 12.4% 15.8% 0.78× 8.09
Exactly 5 goals 11.6% 12.4% 7.5% 1.65× 8.09
6 or more goals 11.0% 12.3% 7.5% 1.65× 8.10
Exactly 0 goals 4.0% 4.4% 5.8% 0.75× 22.89
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 56.2% 54.8% 1.82
1 goal in 2nd half 28.6% 28.5% 3.51
No goals in 2nd half 15.2% 18.2% 5.48
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell not to win both halves 94.7% 93.4% 1.07
Rangers not to win both halves 82.4% 82.9% 1.21
Rangers to win both halves 17.6% 17.2% 5.83
Motherwell to win both halves 5.3% 6.6% 15.22
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to win either half 66.3% 67.1% 1.49
Motherwell to win neither half 58.9% 59.5% 1.68
Motherwell to win either half 41.1% 40.5% 2.47
Rangers to win neither half 33.7% 32.9% 3.04
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Motherwell not to win to nil 89.7% 88.4% 85.3% 1.04× 1.13
Rangers not to win to nil 76.4% 77.1% 72.6% 1.06× 1.30
Rangers to win to nil 23.6% 22.9% 27.4% 0.84× 4.37
Motherwell to win to nil 10.3% 11.6% 14.7% 0.79× 8.59
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers by 1 22.2% 23.7% 19.5% 1.22× 4.21
Draw 22.1% 23.7% 23.4% 1.01× 4.21
Rangers by 2 16.0% 17.0% 14.5% 1.17× 5.90
Motherwell by 1 14.7% 11.9% 17.6% 0.67× 8.42
Rangers by 3+ 14.5% 11.9% 12.2% 0.97× 8.42
Motherwell by 2 7.0% 7.1% 7.7% 0.92× 14.11
Motherwell by 3+ 3.5% 2.8% 6.0% 0.47× 35.28
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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