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Rangers v St Mirren — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Rangers win
69.0%
model 65.8%
Draw
20.1%
model 19.5%
St Mirren win
10.9%
model 14.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (147 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 10.8%
  2. 1-0 9.9%
  3. 2-1 9.9%
  4. 1-1 9.2%
  5. 3-0 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.559.4% Under 2.540.6%
BTTS yes53.1% BTTS no46.9%
Rangers 1+88.5% Rangers 2+63.6%
St Mirren 1+59.9% St Mirren 2+23.3%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.92. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Rangers (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 46%
69.0% fair odds 1.45
strong signal · 931 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
St Mirren not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Rangers carry the stronger rating, 1679 Elo against 1443.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Rangers have an estimated 69.0% win probability, against 20.1% for the draw and 10.9% for St Mirren. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.16 for Rangers and 0.92 for St Mirren.

Why Rangers

Rangers carry the stronger rating, 1679 Elo against 1443. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.1%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why St Mirren can win

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Rangers, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for St Mirren, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rangers: 60% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. St Mirren: 48% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Rangers are the model's most likely outcome at 69.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.8%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.16–0.92 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.03–0.89 2-0 11% 56% 51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to win 63.7% 58.2% 45.9% 1.27× 1.72
Draw 20.7% 24.4% 23.4% 1.04× 4.09
St Mirren to win 15.6% 19.3% 30.9% 0.62× 5.18
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers & not both score 35.6% 33.1% 27.4% 1.21× 3.02
Rangers & both teams score 28.1% 25.2% 18.7% 1.35× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 15.2% 17.9% 17.8% 1.00× 5.58
St Mirren & both teams score 7.9% 8.4% 16.4% 0.51× 11.94
St Mirren & not both score 7.7% 8.4% 14.7% 0.57× 11.94
Draw & not both score 5.5% 8.4% 5.8% 1.44× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers & over 1.5 52.8% 48.7% 36.7% 1.33× 2.05
Rangers & over 2.5 41.7% 40.3% 28.2% 1.43× 2.48
Rangers & under 3.5 39.4% 34.9% 30.1% 1.16× 2.86
Rangers & over 3.5 24.3% 21.6% 16.0% 1.35× 4.62
Rangers & under 2.5 22.0% 21.6% 17.8% 1.21× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 15.2% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 15.3% 18.0% 14.9% 1.20× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.3% 18.0% 14.9% 1.20× 5.56
St Mirren & under 3.5 11.9% 12.9% 22.4% 0.57× 7.78
Rangers & under 1.5 10.9% 12.9% 9.3% 1.38× 7.78
St Mirren & over 1.5 10.9% 12.9% 24.5% 0.53× 7.78
St Mirren & over 2.5 8.7% 7.9% 20.5% 0.38× 12.69
St Mirren & under 2.5 6.9% 7.9% 10.6% 0.74× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 5.5% 7.9% 5.8% 1.36× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 5.4% 7.9% 8.7% 0.90× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 5.4% 7.9% 8.7% 0.90× 12.69
St Mirren & under 1.5 4.8% 4.8% 6.6% 0.72× 20.93
St Mirren & over 3.5 3.7% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (1UP) 75.1% 79.0% 1.27
St Mirren (1UP) 33.0% 32.8% 3.05
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (2UP) 63.7% 68.1% 1.47
St Mirren (2UP) 15.6% 17.1% 5.86
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to win 2nd half 51.1% 51.6% 1.94
2nd half drawn 31.8% 34.4% 2.90
St Mirren to win 2nd half 17.1% 19.2% 5.21
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (+0.5) 84.4% 82.4% 69.1% 1.19× 1.21
St Mirren (+2.5) 80.1% 82.4% 87.8% 0.94× 1.21
Rangers (-0.5) 63.7% 62.9% 45.9% 1.37× 1.59
St Mirren (+1.5) 60.6% 62.9% 73.4% 0.86× 1.59
Rangers (-1.5) 39.4% 37.1% 26.6% 1.40× 2.69
St Mirren (+0.5) 36.3% 37.1% 54.1% 0.69× 2.69
Rangers (-2.5) 19.9% 17.6% 12.2% 1.44× 5.68
St Mirren (-0.5) 15.6% 17.6% 30.9% 0.57× 5.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren to concede 86.8% 86.5% 79.7% 1.09× 1.16
St Mirren clean sheet 13.2% 13.5% 20.3% 0.67× 7.39
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren to concede in 1st half 58.2% 57.7% 1.73
St Mirren clean sheet in 1st half 41.8% 42.3% 2.37
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren under 6.5 corners 83.8% 81.0% 1.24
St Mirren over 2.5 corners 75.9% 75.8% 1.32
St Mirren under 5.5 corners 73.1% 72.3% 1.38
St Mirren under 4.5 corners 58.7% 56.9% 1.76
St Mirren over 3.5 corners 58.6% 56.9% 1.76
St Mirren under 3.5 corners 41.4% 43.1% 2.32
St Mirren over 4.5 corners 41.3% 43.1% 2.32
St Mirren over 5.5 corners 26.9% 27.7% 3.62
St Mirren under 2.5 corners 24.1% 24.2% 4.13
St Mirren over 6.5 corners 16.2% 19.0% 5.25
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren under 3.5 goals 98.7% 97.6% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
St Mirren under 2.5 goals 93.9% 92.4% 85.5% 1.08× 1.08
St Mirren under 1.5 goals 77.6% 76.2% 63.1% 1.21× 1.31
St Mirren over 0.5 goals 59.0% 59.6% 67.0% 0.89× 1.68
St Mirren under 0.5 goals 41.0% 40.4% 33.0% 1.22× 2.48
St Mirren over 1.5 goals 22.4% 23.8% 36.9% 0.64× 4.21
St Mirren over 2.5 goals 6.1% 7.6% 14.5% 0.53× 13.08
St Mirren over 3.5 goals 1.3% 2.4% 3.7% 0.65× 41.13
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren under 1.5 in 1st half 95.0% 94.2% 1.06
St Mirren under 0.5 in 1st half 70.0% 69.0% 1.45
St Mirren over 0.5 in 1st half 30.0% 31.0% 3.23
St Mirren over 1.5 in 1st half 5.0% 5.8% 17.35
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (away no bet) 75.5% 73.6% 66.2% 1.11× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 24.5% 26.4% 33.8% 0.78× 3.79
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren even goals 58.4% 56.9% 57.7% 0.99× 1.76
St Mirren odd goals 41.6% 43.1% 42.3% 1.02× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 82.5% 83.2% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.5% 16.8% 5.95
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 67.6% 68.4% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 32.4% 31.6% 3.17
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 62.3% 59.5% 1.68
Rangers to score 2+ in a row 53.0% 51.2% 1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row 27.5% 25.2% 3.97
Rangers to score 3+ in a row 24.9% 19.4% 5.16
St Mirren to score 2+ in a row 14.8% 12.1% 8.29
St Mirren to score 3+ in a row 2.8% 2.6% 38.37
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers corners (+3.5) 95.6% 94.0% 1.06
Rangers corners (+2.5) 92.6% 88.7% 1.13
Rangers corners (+1.5) 88.1% 84.2% 1.19
Rangers corners (-1.5) 65.2% 66.8% 1.50
Rangers corners (-2.5) 55.2% 56.8% 1.76
St Mirren corners (+3.5) 54.9% 52.3% 1.91
Rangers corners (-3.5) 45.1% 47.7% 2.10
St Mirren corners (+2.5) 44.8% 43.2% 2.31
St Mirren corners (+1.5) 34.8% 33.2% 3.01
St Mirren corners (-1.5) 11.9% 15.8% 6.32
St Mirren corners (-2.5) 7.4% 11.3% 8.82
St Mirren corners (-3.5) 4.4% 6.0% 16.54
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 48.4% 40.7% 2.46
9-11 corners 28.9% 31.8% 3.15
0-8 corners 22.7% 26.3% 3.80
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 85.0% 79.9% 1.25
Over 8.5 corners 77.3% 76.6% 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 68.2% 67.9% 1.47
Under 12.5 corners 61.1% 62.7% 1.60
Over 10.5 corners 58.4% 57.8% 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 51.6% 52.2% 1.91
Over 11.5 corners 48.4% 47.8% 2.09
Under 10.5 corners 41.6% 42.2% 2.37
Over 12.5 corners 38.9% 37.3% 2.68
Under 9.5 corners 31.8% 32.1% 3.12
Under 8.5 corners 22.7% 23.4% 4.28
Under 7.5 corners 15.0% 20.1% 4.97
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 10.9% 11.5% 9.3% 1.23× 8.73
2-0 11.1% 11.5% 8.7% 1.31× 8.73
1-1 9.8% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.46
2-1 9.9% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.46
3-0 7.5% 7.4% 5.6% 1.33× 13.46
3-1 6.7% 7.4% 5.6% 1.33× 13.46
0-0 5.5% 7.4% 5.8% 1.28× 13.46
Any other score 5.7% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.46
0-1 4.8% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.56
0-2 2.1% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.58
0-3 0.6% 1.7% 3.3% 0.51× 58.59
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.11× 58.59
1-2 4.3% 1.7% 8.9% 0.19× 58.57
1-3 1.3% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.59
1-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.06× 58.59
2-2 4.4% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.57
2-3 1.3% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.59
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.06× 58.59
3-2 3.0% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.58
3-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.59
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.11× 58.59
4-0 3.8% 1.7% 3.5% 0.48× 58.57
4-1 3.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.18× 58.57
4-2 1.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.74× 58.58
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.06× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.23× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers leading at HT (DNB) 76.2% 77.6% 1.29
St Mirren leading at HT (DNB) 23.8% 22.4% 4.47
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or draw (1X) 84.4% 80.7% 69.1% 1.17× 1.24
Rangers or St Mirren (12) 79.3% 75.6% 76.6% 0.99× 1.32
St Mirren or draw (X2) 36.3% 41.8% 54.1% 0.77× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or draw at HT 85.5% 88.0% 1.14
Rangers or St Mirren at HT 60.9% 62.2% 1.61
St Mirren or draw at HT 53.6% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or draw (1UP) 84.4% 88.7% 1.13
St Mirren or draw (1UP) 36.3% 42.2% 2.37
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers or draw in 2nd half 82.9% 80.8% 1.24
Rangers or St Mirren in 2nd half 68.2% 65.6% 1.53
St Mirren or draw in 2nd half 48.9% 48.4% 2.07
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 58.4% 58.3% 1.71
Neither half drawn 41.6% 41.7% 2.40
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (DNB) 80.3% 80.3% 59.7% 1.34× 1.25
St Mirren (DNB) 19.7% 19.7% 40.3% 0.49× 5.07
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to score first 65.7% 69.3% 1.44
St Mirren to score first 28.9% 28.4% 3.52
No goal scored 5.5% 7.3% 13.66
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 51.3% 51.5% 52.5% 0.98× 1.94
Not both teams to score 48.7% 48.6% 47.5% 1.02× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 41.4% 41.5% 43.4% 0.96× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 34.4% 34.4% 33.8% 1.02× 2.91
Not both score & over 2.5 14.4% 12.3% 13.9% 0.89× 8.11
Both score & under 2.5 9.8% 8.4% 9.3% 0.90× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.5% 85.7% 83.8% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 13.5% 14.3% 16.2% 0.89× 6.98
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 71.6% 74.5% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 28.4% 25.5% 3.92
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.1% 59.9% 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 23.4% 21.2% 4.73
Both score 1st half only 12.5% 10.5% 9.53
Both score in both halves 4.9% 5.0% 19.90
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.6% 82.9% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.4% 17.1% 5.83
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 57.7% 57.3% 1.75
A half without a goal 42.3% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.4% 47.4% 45.9% 1.03× 2.11
4-6 goals 30.5% 30.7% 31.3% 0.98× 3.26
0-1 goals 21.1% 22.8% 21.4% 1.07× 4.38
7+ goals 2.9% 1.8% 1.9% 0.97× 55.13
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren to score exactly 0 41.0% 36.9% 33.0% 1.12× 2.71
St Mirren to score exactly 1 36.6% 36.0% 30.3% 1.19× 2.78
St Mirren to score exactly 2 16.3% 19.5% 22.6% 0.86× 5.12
St Mirren to score 3+ 6.1% 8.5% 14.5% 0.58× 11.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to score 3+ 33.0% 32.6% 23.9% 1.37× 3.06
Rangers to score exactly 2 27.1% 26.5% 25.1% 1.06× 3.77
Rangers to score exactly 1 26.7% 26.5% 31.1% 0.85× 3.77
Rangers to score exactly 0 13.2% 14.3% 20.3% 0.71× 6.97
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers leading at HT 46.4% 52.4% 1.91
Draw at HT 39.1% 37.8% 2.64
St Mirren leading at HT 14.5% 12.0% 8.34
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers -1: 1 39.4% 37.4% 2.68
Rangers -1: 2 36.3% 37.3% 2.68
Rangers -1: X 24.3% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (0:1) 39.4% 37.3% 26.6% 1.41× 2.68
St Mirren (0:1) 36.3% 37.3% 54.1% 0.69× 2.68
Draw (0:1) 24.3% 24.3% 19.5% 1.25× 4.11
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren (0:2) 60.6% 67.1% 73.4% 0.91× 1.49
Rangers (0:2) 19.9% 15.3% 12.2% 1.25× 6.52
Draw (0:2) 19.5% 15.3% 14.5% 1.06× 6.52
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren (0:3) 80.1% 85.0% 87.8% 0.97× 1.18
Draw (0:3) 11.6% 10.0% 6.8% 1.46× 9.99
Rangers (0:3) 8.4% 5.8% 5.6% 1.04× 17.22
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren (0:4) 91.6% 94.7% 94.4% 1.00× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.4% 4.6% 4.8% 0.96× 21.79
Rangers (0:4) 3.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.16× 83.12
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (1:0) 84.4% 81.5% 69.1% 1.18× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 10.6% 12.8% 17.6% 0.73× 7.81
St Mirren (1:0) 5.0% 3.2% 13.5% 0.24× 31.28
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers (2:0) 95.0% 96.9% 86.5% 1.12× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.8% 2.3% 7.7% 0.29× 44.17
St Mirren (2:0) 1.2% 2.3% 6.0% 0.37× 44.34
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.2% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.8% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.1% 24.3% 4.12
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to concede 59.0% 61.0% 67.0% 0.91× 1.64
Rangers clean sheet 41.0% 39.0% 33.0% 1.18× 2.56
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers clean sheet in 1st half 70.0% 68.2% 1.47
Rangers to concede in 1st half 30.0% 31.8% 3.15
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers over 2.5 corners 95.3% 93.0% 1.08
Rangers over 3.5 corners 89.4% 85.2% 1.17
Rangers over 4.5 corners 80.5% 81.3% 1.23
Rangers over 5.5 corners 69.3% 67.8% 1.48
Rangers over 6.5 corners 57.0% 57.4% 1.74
Rangers under 6.5 corners 43.0% 42.6% 2.35
Rangers under 5.5 corners 30.7% 32.2% 3.10
Rangers under 4.5 corners 19.5% 18.7% 5.35
Rangers under 3.5 corners 10.6% 14.8% 6.77
Rangers under 2.5 corners 4.7% 7.0% 14.33
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers over 0.5 goals 86.8% 87.2% 79.7% 1.09× 1.15
Rangers under 3.5 goals 85.2% 87.2% 92.1% 0.95× 1.15
Rangers under 2.5 goals 67.0% 67.9% 76.1% 0.89× 1.47
Rangers over 1.5 goals 60.1% 63.4% 48.8% 1.30× 1.58
Rangers under 1.5 goals 39.9% 36.6% 51.2% 0.71× 2.73
Rangers over 2.5 goals 33.0% 32.1% 23.9% 1.34× 3.12
Rangers over 3.5 goals 14.8% 12.8% 7.9% 1.62× 7.82
Rangers under 0.5 goals 13.2% 12.8% 20.3% 0.63× 7.83
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers under 1.5 in 1st half 78.3% 77.0% 1.30
Rangers over 0.5 in 1st half 58.2% 57.3% 1.75
Rangers under 0.5 in 1st half 41.8% 42.7% 2.34
Rangers over 1.5 in 1st half 21.7% 23.0% 4.35
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 56.9% 56.7% 43.1% 1.31× 1.76
St Mirren (home no bet) 43.1% 43.3% 56.9% 0.76× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers even goals 50.9% 50.6% 51.7% 0.98× 1.98
Rangers odd goals 49.1% 49.4% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.3% 28.7% 3.48
HT 1-0 25.5% 28.6% 3.50
HT 2-0 11.1% 11.0% 9.06
HT 0-1 10.4% 11.0% 9.07
HT 1-1 9.1% 7.1% 14.08
Any other HT score 6.4% 7.1% 14.12
HT 2-1 4.0% 2.2% 44.63
HT 0-2 1.9% 2.2% 44.79
HT 1-2 1.6% 2.2% 44.81
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.2% 44.89
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers at HT / Rangers at FT 40.8% 43.0% 2.33
Draw at HT / Rangers at FT 20.0% 16.8% 5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.5% 12.7% 7.89
St Mirren at HT / St Mirren at FT 7.8% 6.0% 16.56
Draw at HT / St Mirren at FT 6.7% 6.0% 16.60
Rangers at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.4% 29.11
St Mirren at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.4% 29.13
St Mirren at HT / Rangers at FT 2.9% 3.4% 29.17
Rangers at HT / St Mirren at FT 1.2% 3.4% 29.24
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to score last 65.7% 69.6% 1.44
St Mirren to score last 28.9% 27.5% 3.64
No goal scored 5.5% 7.3% 13.66
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.5% 92.8% 1.08
Rangers to lead by 1 at any time 75.1% 78.3% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 54.4% 50.6% 1.98
Rangers to lead by 2 at any time 45.8% 44.0% 2.28
St Mirren to lead by 1 at any time 33.0% 29.5% 3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 24.7% 19.7% 5.09
Rangers to lead by 3 at any time 22.8% 19.6% 5.10
St Mirren to lead by 2 at any time 8.8% 6.6% 15.25
St Mirren to lead by 3 at any time 1.9% 1.6% 63.98
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers most corners 74.3% 71.8% 1.39
St Mirren most corners 18.0% 20.7% 4.84
Corners level 7.7% 8.4% 11.91
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.0% 87.4% 86.9% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.4% 78.6% 79.7% 0.99× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.9% 78.6% 77.0% 1.02× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.3% 72.4% 71.4% 1.01× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.8% 63.5% 64.1% 0.99× 1.58
1-3 goals 61.1% 63.5% 61.4% 1.03× 1.58
3-6 goals 52.9% 53.1% 55.4% 0.96× 1.88
3-5 goals 48.2% 48.7% 49.8% 0.98× 2.06
2-3 goals 45.4% 48.7% 45.9% 1.06× 2.06
1-2 goals 38.7% 39.2% 37.3% 1.05× 2.55
3-4 goals 38.7% 39.2% 42.5% 0.92× 2.55
4-6 goals 30.5% 35.4% 31.3% 1.13× 2.83
4-5 goals 25.9% 30.2% 25.7% 1.17× 3.31
5-6 goals 14.2% 14.9% 13.1% 1.14× 6.73
7+ goals 2.9% 2.5% 1.9% 1.36× 39.44
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers never behind 61.5% 67.5% 1.48
St Mirren never behind 19.5% 18.8% 5.33
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.8% 50.8% 48.5% 1.05× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.2% 49.2% 51.5% 0.96× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.3% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.7% 48.4% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.7% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.3% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.5% 92.3% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.4% 92.3% 92.5% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 82.9% 82.4% 85.3% 0.97× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 78.9% 77.4% 78.6% 0.98× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 66.6% 66.3% 67.0% 0.99× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 55.8% 58.8% 57.1% 1.03× 1.70
Under 2.5 goals 44.2% 41.2% 42.9% 0.96× 2.43
Over 3.5 goals 33.4% 33.7% 33.0% 1.02× 2.96
Under 1.5 goals 21.1% 22.6% 21.4% 1.06× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 17.1% 17.6% 14.7% 1.20× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 7.6% 7.7% 7.5% 1.03× 12.95
Under 0.5 goals 5.5% 7.7% 5.8% 1.33× 12.96
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.9% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.6% 92.5% 91.9% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 79.6% 76.0% 82.0% 0.93× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 72.5% 72.6% 72.8% 1.00× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 56.9% 55.5% 56.6% 0.98× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 43.1% 44.5% 43.4% 1.02× 2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 27.5% 27.4% 27.2% 1.01× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 20.4% 24.0% 18.0% 1.33× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.4% 7.5% 8.1% 0.94× 13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.1% 2.8% 2.0% 1.39× 36.35
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.3% 89.3% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.7% 71.0% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 65.2% 68.9% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 34.8% 31.1% 3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.3% 29.0% 3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.7% 10.7% 9.34
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.5% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.0% 79.9% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 50.4% 53.0% 1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 49.6% 47.0% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 24.0% 20.1% 4.97
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.5% 17.1% 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren not to score in both halves 87.6% 85.9% 1.16
Rangers not to score in both halves 60.2% 63.3% 1.58
Rangers to score in both halves 39.8% 36.7% 2.72
St Mirren to score in both halves 12.4% 14.1% 7.10
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 51.3% 53.9% 52.5% 1.03× 1.85
Only Rangers scores 35.6% 39.8% 27.4% 1.45× 2.51
Only St Mirren scores 7.7% 7.2% 14.7% 0.49× 13.94
Neither team scores 5.5% 7.2% 5.8% 1.23× 13.96
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.1% 22.6% 21.8% 1.04× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 24.3% 0.93× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 16.3% 17.4% 18.5% 0.95× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 15.7% 17.4% 15.8% 1.11× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 9.5% 7.6% 7.5% 1.02× 13.13
6 or more goals 7.6% 7.6% 7.5% 1.02× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 5.5% 7.6% 5.8% 1.31× 13.14
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 50.4% 50.8% 1.97
1 goal in 2nd half 31.2% 33.8% 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 18.5% 16.9% 5.91
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren not to win both halves 97.5% 97.2% 1.03
Rangers not to win both halves 76.3% 75.1% 1.33
Rangers to win both halves 23.7% 24.9% 4.02
St Mirren to win both halves 2.5% 2.8% 35.71
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers to win either half 73.8% 73.1% 1.37
St Mirren to win neither half 70.9% 72.9% 1.37
St Mirren to win either half 29.1% 27.1% 3.69
Rangers to win neither half 26.2% 26.9% 3.72
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Mirren not to win to nil 92.3% 92.0% 85.3% 1.08× 1.09
Rangers not to win to nil 64.4% 66.8% 72.6% 0.92× 1.50
Rangers to win to nil 35.6% 33.2% 27.4% 1.21× 3.02
St Mirren to win to nil 7.7% 8.0% 14.7% 0.54× 12.56
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rangers by 1 24.3% 24.1% 19.5% 1.24× 4.14
Draw 20.7% 24.1% 23.4% 1.03× 4.14
Rangers by 3+ 19.9% 17.0% 12.2% 1.38× 5.90
Rangers by 2 19.5% 16.9% 14.5% 1.17× 5.90
St Mirren by 1 10.6% 11.8% 17.6% 0.67× 8.47
St Mirren by 2 3.8% 2.7% 7.7% 0.35× 36.95
St Mirren by 3+ 1.2% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 37.03
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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