RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 17
On target
8 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 13
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
0.74 – 1.73
Goals − xG
-0.25 – -2.74
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
60.7%
Draw
22.4%
Augsburg win
16.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 24 from 22.6 expected and conceded 20 from 21.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLWLWLWLW last 10
scored 24
from 22.6 xG
conceded 20
from 21.7 xG
Augsburg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWDLDLD last 10
scored 23
from 22.8 xG
conceded 19
from 22.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.06–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.52–1.05 | 2-1 9% | 69% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.25 xGAugsburg 3.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 4' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Castello Lukeba |
| 18' |
 Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Augsburg |
Keven Schlotterbeck | 0.76 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 23' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mert Kömür |
| 27' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 28' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 36' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 37' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 38' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fabian Rieder |
| 43' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.24 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 45' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 49' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 51' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 55' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.26 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 56' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 59' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 59' |
Augsburg |
Dimitris Giannoulis | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Anton Kade |
| 60' |
Augsburg |
Arthur Chaves | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 65' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Castello Lukeba | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | David Raum |
| 67' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 71' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 75' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Conrad Harder |
| 78' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Conrad Harder |
| 82' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Fabian Rieder |
| 83' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Henrichs | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ezechiel Banzuzi |
| 85' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 86' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 87' |
Augsburg |
Dimitris Giannoulis | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Augsburg |
Arthur Chaves | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 95' |
Augsburg |
Finn Dahmen | 0.66 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 95' |
Augsburg |
Marius Wolf | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 1.27 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Fabian Rieder AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 1.92 |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 1.13 |
| Noahkai Banks DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Kristijan Jakic MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Robin Fellhauer DMR | 76 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Mert Kömür AMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Anton Kade Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.72 |
| Marius Wolf Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.66 | 0.06 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Michael Gregoritsch Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tim Schnitzer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Diomande FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.14 | 0.80 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.12 | 0.74 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.10 | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.73 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rômulo FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Bote Baku DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Brajan Gruda MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| Johan Bakayoko Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| Benjamin Henrichs Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |