RasenBallsport Leipzig v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 20
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
4 – 14
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.66
Goals − xG
+1.25 – +1.02
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
21.2%
Draw
22.6%
Bayern Munich win
56.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 24 from 22.6 expected and conceded 20 from 21.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLWLWLWLW last 10
scored 24
from 22.6 xG
conceded 20
from 21.7 xG
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDWWDWW last 10
scored 34
from 32.5 xG
conceded 10
from 13.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.18–2.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1.75 xGBayern Munich 1.98 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Amadou Haidara | 0.53 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 4' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Amadou Haidara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 10' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.17 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Xavi Simons |
| 19' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Loïs Openda |
| 26' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Leroy Sané |
| 26' |
Bayern Munich |
Sacha Boey | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 29' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 31' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Bayern Munich |
Thomas Müller | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leroy Sané |
| 34' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 38' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Lukas Klostermann | 0.27 | Set Piece | — | Goal | David Raum |
| 39' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin Sesko |
| 49' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Müller |
| 50' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 61' |
Bayern Munich |
Eric Dier | 0.28 | From Corner | — | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 61' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leroy Sané |
| 62' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Serge Gnabry |
| 65' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kingsley Coman |
| 68' |
Bayern Munich |
Konrad Laimer | 0.60 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 70' |
Bayern Munich |
Kingsley Coman | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Konrad Laimer |
| 74' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Bayern Munich |
Kingsley Coman | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 82' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Joshua Kimmich |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Xavi Simons |
Players
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Klostermann DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Xavi Simons ML | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.00 |
| Loïs Openda FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| Kosta Nedeljkovic DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Kampl MR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Amadou Haidara MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 71 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.06 | 0.54 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Arthur Vermeeren Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bote Baku Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Nusa Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konrad Laimer DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.61 | 0.06 | 0.82 |
| Serge Gnabry FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Michael Olise MR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.61 | 0.37 |
| Leroy Sané ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Joshua Kimmich MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.02 | 0.77 | 1.03 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Josip Stanisic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Thomas Müller FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Sacha Boey DR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Kingsley Coman Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Leon Goretzka Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| João Palhinha Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |