RasenBallsport Leipzig v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 19
On target
4 – 12
Shots in box
14 – 16
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.80
Goals − xG
-1.87 – +0.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
12.2%
Draw
17.3%
Bayern Munich win
70.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.11–2.72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.14–2.76 | 1-2 9% | 75% | 64% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.87 xGBayern Munich 4.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rômulo |
| 3' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 6' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.67 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 9' |
 Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 10' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 17' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 19' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | David Raum |
| 21' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 23' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 34' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 34' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rômulo |
| 36' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 39' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lennart Karl |
| 49' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dayotchanculle Upamecano |
| 52' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 57' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 58' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.54 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 60' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 60' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 71' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bote Baku |
| 74' |
Bayern Munich |
Hiroki Ito | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 79' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Bayern Munich |
Jonathan Tah | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 81' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Bayern Munich |
Aleksandar Pavlovic | 0.82 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 86' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Tidiam Gomis | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bote Baku |
| 87' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jamal Musiala |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.20 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Andrija Maksimovic |
| 94' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.06 | 0.11 | 2.10 |
| Yan Diomande FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.29 | 1.05 | 2.19 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.28 | 0.90 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1.43 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.46 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.76 |
| Xaver Schlager MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.30 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Rômulo FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.96 | 0.13 | 1.44 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Andrija Maksimovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.32 | 0.58 | 2.83 |
| Serge Gnabry AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.05 | 0.85 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.14 | 0.91 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Hiroki Ito DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1.48 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Tom Bischof DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.91 |
| Lennart Karl AMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Joshua Kimmich Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.59 | 0.92 |
| Michael Olise Sub | 30 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.37 | 1.74 | 2.09 |
| Alphonso Davies Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Kim Min-Jae Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamal Musiala Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |