RasenBallsport Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 11
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 10
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.28
Goals − xG
-1.51 – +0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
41.3%
Draw
27.9%
Borussia Dortmund win
30.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.53–1.30 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.81–1.64 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 3.51 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
Borussia Dortmund attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 7' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 11' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 16' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Marcel Sabitzer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 18' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 19' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yan Diomande |
| 27' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rômulo |
| 32' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 36' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 37' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 38' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | David Raum |
| 38' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 42' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Marcel Sabitzer | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Waldemar Anton | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 48' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Marcel Sabitzer | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 49' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Ramy Bensebaini | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 49' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 66' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 67' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Castello Lukeba | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 72' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 77' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Couto |
| 82' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 92' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Karim Adeyemi |
| 97' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fabio Silva |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramy Bensebaini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.88 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| Marcel Sabitzer AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.02 | 0.28 |
| Luca Reggiani DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Brandt Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Yan Couto Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Silva Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.11 | 0.66 |
| Karim Adeyemi Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.36 | 0.66 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2.01 | 0.08 | 2.42 |
| Yan Diomande FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.36 | 1.45 | 2.63 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 1.37 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 2.18 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Bote Baku DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Brajan Gruda FWR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Rômulo FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.67 | 1.62 |
| Xaver Schlager MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.98 |
| Antonio Nusa Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamin Henrichs Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Finkgrafe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |