RasenBallsport Leipzig v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 15
On target
11 – 2
Shots in box
18 – 11
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.42 – 0.84
Goals − xG
-1.57 – -1.74
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
61.1%
Draw
22.8%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
16.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 24 from 22.6 expected and conceded 20 from 21.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLWLWLWLW last 10
scored 24
from 22.6 xG
conceded 20
from 21.7 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach have scored 17 from 16.5 expected and conceded 25 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLLLLLLW last 10
scored 17
from 16.5 xG
conceded 25
from 23.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.00–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.27–1.14 | 2-1 10% | 66% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.57 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 1.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lukas Ullrich |
| 10' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 13' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 14' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 16' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Elvedi |
| 18' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bote Baku |
| 20' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Joe Scally |
| 22' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Scally |
| 23' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Lukas Ullrich | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Diks |
| 23' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jens Castrop |
| 27' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 33' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Hugo Bolin | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Diks |
| 35' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.16 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 37' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 40' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Willi Orban |
| 47' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 50' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rômulo |
| 56' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 62' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 63' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bote Baku |
| 63' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 68' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Assan Ouédraogo |
| 71' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 72' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 73' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xaver Schlager | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 76' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xaver Schlager | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bote Baku |
| 80' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 83' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Fabio Chiarodia | 0.60 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 83' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.12 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 86' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Joe Scally |
| 89' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Hugo Bolin | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 96' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Hugo Bolin | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.68 |
| Philipp Sander MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Joe Scally DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| Jens Castrop FWL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.02 | 0.61 |
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Franck Honorat FWR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.72 |
| Hugo Bolin Sub | 58 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Ullrich DL | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.58 |
| Fabio Chiarodia Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wael Mohya Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Stöger Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xaver Schlager MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 1.26 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.86 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0.12 | 0.83 | 0.55 |
| Yan Diomande FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 1.25 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.48 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Bote Baku DR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.96 | 1.56 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 1.10 |
| Rômulo FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.02 | 1.21 |
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Johan Bakayoko Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Assan Ouédraogo Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.47 |
| Benjamin Henrichs Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Brajan Gruda Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Finkgrafe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |