RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 8
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.24 – 0.08
Goals − xG
+2.35 – -0.47
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
50.6%
Draw
22.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
27.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.09–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.97 | 1-1 9% | 70% | 69% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 3.65 xGEintracht Frankfurt 0.47 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Michy Batshuayi |
| 4' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Goal | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 7' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.24 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 14' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 19' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rasmus Kristensen |
| 21' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Michy Batshuayi | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 30' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Mahmoud Dahoud | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Ritsu Doan |
| 30' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Michy Batshuayi | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 30' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.97 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Conrad Harder |
| 41' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Xaver Schlager |
| 50' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 51' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Castello Lukeba |
| 54' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 60' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 60' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xaver Schlager | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Conrad Harder |
| 61' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 64' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 77' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Max Finkgrafe |
| 83' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Samba Konate | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Andrija Maksimovic |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farès Chaïbi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.30 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Rasmus Kristensen DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Nnamdi Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Nathaniel Brown DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Ritsu Doan AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Jean Négoce AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Mahmoud Dahoud MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Michy Batshuayi FW | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| Jessic Ngankam Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Larsson Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oscar Højlund Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Götze Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aurèle Amenda Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Diomande FWR | 90 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.03 | 0.89 |
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 1.30 |
| Xaver Schlager MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 2.17 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.30 |
| Kosta Nedeljkovic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.75 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 72 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.07 | 0.45 | 1.69 |
| Conrad Harder FW | 72 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.84 | 1.04 | 2.11 |
| David Raum DL | 72 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.76 | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Max Finkgrafe Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Andrija Maksimovic Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Samba Konate Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |