RasenBallsport Leipzig v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 4
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 1
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
1.01 – 0.79
Goals − xG
+0.35 – +1.17
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
62.6%
Draw
22.4%
FC Heidenheim win
15.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.28–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1.65 xGFC Heidenheim 0.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Jan Schöppner |
| 7' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 12' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 17' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 21' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Mainka |
| 23' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 28' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Castello Lukeba |
| 32' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 33' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 39' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Kevin Kampl |
| 40' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 45' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Benjamin Sesko |
| 48' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin Sesko |
| 63' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 72' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Vermeeren |
| 78' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marnon Busch | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonas Föhrenbach |
| 87' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xavi Simons | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Kevin Kampl | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin Sesko |
Players
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0.86 | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| Loïs Openda FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Xavi Simons AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| Kevin Kampl DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.37 |
| Nicolas Seiwald DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.47 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| Bote Baku DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Arthur Vermeeren Sub | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Christoph Baumgartner AMC | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kosta Nedeljkovic Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathias Honsak AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Siersleben DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Müller GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Omar Traoré DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Kerber MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Sirlord Conteh AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marnon Busch Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Julian Niehues Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thomas Keller Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Budu Zivzivadze Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrian Beck Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |