RasenBallsport Leipzig v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 12 Sep 2026, 18:52 UTC

RasenBallsport Leipzig

5–0

2.47 – 0.51 xG

Hamburger SV

Shots

19 – 10

On target

6 – 4

Shots in box

12 – 6

xG per shot

0.13 – 0.05

Set-piece xG

0.85 – 0.09

Goals − xG

+2.52 – -0.51

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 13 Sep, 11:42 · 2h before kick-off

RasenBallsport Leipzig win

70.3%

model 72.5%

Draw

17.4%

model 15.9%

Hamburger SV win

12.3%

model 11.6%

701712

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (964 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 9.8%
2-1 9.3%
3-0 8.4%
3-1 8.0%
1-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	68.5%	Under 2.5	31.5%
BTTS yes	56.7%	BTTS no	43.3%
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1+	92.4%	RasenBallsport Leipzig 2+	72.9%
Hamburger SV 1+	61.3%	Hamburger SV 2+	24.6%

Expected goals 2.58 – 0.95. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

90/100

Data quality

85/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

RasenBallsport Leipzig (-1.5)

Asian handicap · usually 25%

52.1% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 11545 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Hamburger SV (0:4)

Handicap 0:4 · usually 93%

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 601 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

RasenBallsport Leipzig carry the stronger rating, 1603 Elo against 1443.
RasenBallsport Leipzig have created 2.43 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 2.58.
At home RasenBallsport Leipzig average 3.22 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

RasenBallsport Leipzig have an estimated 70.3% win probability, against 17.4% for the draw and 12.3% for Hamburger SV. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.58 for RasenBallsport Leipzig and 0.95 for Hamburger SV.

Why RasenBallsport Leipzig

RasenBallsport Leipzig carry the stronger rating, 1603 Elo against 1443. RasenBallsport Leipzig have created 2.43 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 2.58. At home RasenBallsport Leipzig average 3.22 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.4%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Hamburger SV can win

Hamburger SV have created 1.12 xG a match over their last five while RasenBallsport Leipzig have allowed 1.58. Away from home Hamburger SV average 0.94 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: RasenBallsport Leipzig were missing 1.88 expected goal involvements a match against 0.95.

Key players

RasenBallsport Leipzig's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rômulo (0.56), Christoph Baumgartner (0.55), Yan Diomande (0.52). Hamburger SV's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Patson Daka (0.27), Fábio Vieira (0.26), Ransford Königsdörffer (0.24).

Availability

3 of RasenBallsport Leipzig's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of RasenBallsport Leipzig's last eleven are new to the club this window. 3 of Hamburger SV's top three contributors did not start their last match. 55% of Hamburger SV's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

RasenBallsport Leipzig: 59% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 13.5 faced, 0.58 xG a match from set pieces. Hamburger SV: 49% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 18.5 faced, 0.13 xG a match from set pieces. RasenBallsport Leipzig's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-13 14:48 · team_stats 2026-09-13 06:08 · availability 2026-09-13 15:42 · prediction 2026-09-12 18:52 ·

RasenBallsport Leipzig are the model's most likely outcome at 70.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 9.8%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 85/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 24 from 22.6 expected and conceded 20 from 21.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWLWLWLWLW last 10 scored 24 from 22.6 xG conceded 20 from 21.7 xG

Hamburger SV have scored 12 from 11.8 expected and conceded 20 from 18.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWDLLLWWWL last 10 scored 12 from 11.8 xG conceded 20 from 18.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	721612	2.58–0.95	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	701613	2.59–1.06	2-1 9%	71%	60%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	681715	2.55–1.13	2-1 9%	71%	62%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win	71.4%	73.0%	41.5%	1.76×	1.37
Draw	15.6%	19.4%	24.8%	0.78×	5.16
Hamburger SV to win	13.0%	13.7%	33.8%	0.40×	7.31

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig & both teams score	40.9%	38.9%	22.1%	1.76×	2.57
RasenBallsport Leipzig & not both score	30.6%	29.2%	19.6%	1.49×	3.42
Draw & both teams score	13.5%	13.3%	19.1%	0.69×	7.53
Hamburger SV & both teams score	8.7%	8.3%	18.5%	0.45×	11.99
Hamburger SV & not both score	4.3%	4.9%	15.5%	0.32×	20.40
Draw & not both score	2.1%	4.9%	5.8%	0.84×	20.46

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig & over 1.5	65.6%	66.6%	35.4%	1.88×	1.50
RasenBallsport Leipzig & over 2.5	57.7%	54.3%	29.4%	1.85×	1.84
RasenBallsport Leipzig & over 3.5	41.6%	39.9%	20.2%	1.97×	2.51
RasenBallsport Leipzig & under 3.5	29.8%	26.0%	21.5%	1.21×	3.85
RasenBallsport Leipzig & under 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	12.3%	1.04×	7.78
Draw & over 1.5	13.5%	12.8%	19.1%	0.67×	7.78
Hamburger SV & over 1.5	10.6%	12.8%	28.0%	0.46×	7.79
Hamburger SV & over 2.5	9.3%	8.0%	23.7%	0.34×	12.55
Draw & under 2.5	8.6%	8.0%	15.5%	0.51×	12.55
Draw & under 3.5	8.6%	8.0%	15.5%	0.51×	12.55
Hamburger SV & under 3.5	7.8%	8.0%	19.7%	0.40×	12.55
RasenBallsport Leipzig & under 1.5	5.8%	8.0%	6.3%	1.26×	12.56
Draw & over 2.5	7.0%	8.0%	9.5%	0.84×	12.55
Draw & over 3.5	7.0%	8.0%	9.5%	0.84×	12.55
Hamburger SV & over 3.5	5.2%	8.0%	14.2%	0.56×	12.56
Hamburger SV & under 2.5	3.7%	4.9%	10.3%	0.47×	20.51
Hamburger SV & under 1.5	2.4%	4.9%	6.0%	0.81×	20.52
Draw & under 1.5	2.1%	4.9%	5.8%	0.83×	20.52

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (1UP)	82.7%	87.2%	59.5%	1.47×	1.15
Hamburger SV (1UP)	33.8%	33.0%	53.0%	0.62×	3.04

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (2UP)	71.4%	80.2%	44.9%	1.79×	1.25
Hamburger SV (2UP)	13.0%	13.4%	36.7%	0.37×	7.45

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win 2nd half	49.3%	45.4%	37.0%	1.23×	2.20
2nd half drawn	29.4%	26.4%	33.5%	0.79×	3.79
Hamburger SV to win 2nd half	21.3%	23.1%	29.6%	0.78×	4.33

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.5%	84.2%	79.3%	1.06×	1.19
Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.6%	53.3%	56.6%	0.94×	1.88
Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.4%	46.7%	43.4%	1.08×	2.14
Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.5%	15.8%	20.7%	0.76×	6.32

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.8%	73.6%	62.2%	1.18×	1.36
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.9%	62.5%	74.8%	0.83×	1.60
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.1%	37.5%	25.2%	1.49×	2.67
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.2%	26.4%	37.8%	0.70×	3.78

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (+0.5)	87.0%	88.3%	66.2%	1.33×	1.13
RasenBallsport Leipzig (-0.5)	71.4%	73.6%	41.5%	1.77×	1.36
Hamburger SV (+2.5)	69.0%	68.7%	88.3%	0.78×	1.46
RasenBallsport Leipzig (-1.5)	50.9%	52.1%	24.6%	2.11×	1.92
Hamburger SV (+1.5)	49.1%	47.9%	75.4%	0.64×	2.09
RasenBallsport Leipzig (-2.5)	31.0%	31.3%	11.7%	2.68×	3.20
Hamburger SV (+0.5)	28.6%	26.4%	58.5%	0.45×	3.79
Hamburger SV (-0.5)	13.0%	11.7%	33.8%	0.35×	8.54

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV to concede	93.5%	91.2%	78.8%	1.16×	1.10
Hamburger SV clean sheet	6.5%	8.8%	21.2%	0.41×	11.40

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV to concede in 1st half	77.1%	77.7%	51.7%	1.50×	1.29
Hamburger SV clean sheet in 1st half	22.9%	22.3%	48.3%	0.46×	4.49

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV to concede in 2nd half	71.8%	70.2%	62.2%	1.13×	1.43
Hamburger SV clean sheet in 2nd half	28.2%	29.8%	37.8%	0.79×	3.35

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV under 3.5 goals	97.3%	97.4%	92.6%	1.05×	1.03
Hamburger SV under 2.5 goals	89.7%	87.9%	78.8%	1.12×	1.14
Hamburger SV under 1.5 goals	69.2%	67.8%	57.0%	1.19×	1.47
Hamburger SV over 0.5 goals	67.3%	67.8%	74.7%	0.91×	1.47
Hamburger SV under 0.5 goals	32.7%	32.2%	25.3%	1.27×	3.11
Hamburger SV over 1.5 goals	30.8%	32.2%	43.0%	0.75×	3.11
Hamburger SV over 2.5 goals	10.3%	12.1%	21.2%	0.57×	8.27
Hamburger SV over 3.5 goals	2.7%	2.6%	7.4%	0.35×	38.72

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 1st half	94.0%	94.2%	85.6%	1.10×	1.06
Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 1st half	67.5%	68.3%	54.3%	1.26×	1.46
Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 1st half	32.5%	31.7%	45.7%	0.69×	3.16
Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 1st half	6.0%	5.8%	14.4%	0.40×	17.35

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV scores equally in both	42.7%	43.8%	38.8%	1.13×	2.28
Hamburger SV scores more in 2nd half	39.4%	36.5%	36.9%	0.99×	2.74
Hamburger SV scores more in 1st half	17.9%	17.9%	24.5%	0.73×	5.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (away no bet)	82.1%	82.5%	62.6%	1.32×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	17.9%	17.5%	37.4%	0.47×	5.72

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV even goals	55.3%	56.9%	53.1%	1.07×	1.76
Hamburger SV odd goals	44.7%	43.1%	46.9%	0.92×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	67.0%	71.5%	75.6%	0.95×	1.40
Both halves over 1.5 goals	33.0%	28.5%	24.4%	1.17×	3.51

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	81.9%	77.6%	72.3%	1.07×	1.29
Both halves under 1.5 goals	18.1%	22.4%	27.7%	0.81×	4.46

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	76.6%	75.6%	66.9%	1.13×	1.32
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score 2+ in a row	67.8%	62.2%	42.2%	1.47×	1.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	41.9%	38.2%	29.4%	1.30×	2.62
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score 3+ in a row	38.6%	36.6%	17.6%	2.08×	2.73
Hamburger SV to score 2+ in a row	18.8%	16.3%	34.8%	0.47×	6.12
Hamburger SV to score 3+ in a row	3.9%	2.6%	12.8%	0.20×	38.20

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	14.7%	11.4%	5.4%	2.12×	8.79
2-1	8.9%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.53
1-1	6.5%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.54
2-0	7.9%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.54
3-0	7.2%	7.4%	2.7%	2.75×	13.54
3-1	8.1%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.54
1-0	5.8%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.54
4-1	5.6%	7.4%	2.2%	3.34×	13.54
0-0	2.1%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	57.57
0-1	2.4%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	57.57
0-2	1.3%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	57.57
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	57.58
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	57.58
1-2	3.6%	1.7%	6.8%	0.26×	57.56
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	57.57
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	57.58
2-2	5.0%	1.7%	6.3%	0.28×	57.55
2-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.7%	0.65×	57.57
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	57.58
3-2	4.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	57.56
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	57.57
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	57.58
4-0	5.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	57.55
4-2	3.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	57.56
4-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	57.57
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	57.58

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (2nd half DNB)	69.8%	70.2%	55.6%	1.26×	1.43
Hamburger SV (2nd half DNB)	30.2%	29.8%	44.4%	0.67×	3.35

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig leading at HT (DNB)	87.0%	86.4%	55.4%	1.56×	1.16
Hamburger SV leading at HT (DNB)	13.0%	13.6%	44.6%	0.31×	7.35

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw (1X)	87.0%	86.3%	66.2%	1.30×	1.16
RasenBallsport Leipzig or Hamburger SV (12)	84.4%	80.6%	75.2%	1.07×	1.24
Hamburger SV or draw (X2)	28.6%	27.0%	58.5%	0.46×	3.70

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw at HT	90.3%	89.5%	70.6%	1.27×	1.12
RasenBallsport Leipzig or Hamburger SV at HT	74.2%	74.5%	65.8%	1.13×	1.34
Hamburger SV or draw at HT	35.4%	28.8%	63.4%	0.45×	3.47

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw (1UP)	87.0%	91.7%	73.4%	1.25×	1.09
Hamburger SV or draw (1UP)	33.8%	39.0%	65.2%	0.60×	2.56

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw in 2nd half	78.7%	76.9%	70.4%	1.09×	1.30
RasenBallsport Leipzig or Hamburger SV in 2nd half	70.6%	73.6%	66.5%	1.11×	1.36
Hamburger SV or draw in 2nd half	50.7%	54.6%	63.0%	0.87×	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	47.6%	50.1%	53.8%	0.93×	2.00
Neither half drawn	52.4%	49.9%	46.2%	1.08×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (DNB)	84.6%	80.3%	55.1%	1.46×	1.25
Hamburger SV (DNB)	15.4%	19.7%	44.9%	0.44×	5.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score first	69.5%	69.6%	50.6%	1.37×	1.44
Hamburger SV to score first	28.4%	28.3%	43.7%	0.65×	3.53
No goal scored	2.1%	4.2%	5.9%	0.72×	23.61

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.0%	56.5%	59.4%	0.95×	1.77
Not both teams to score	37.0%	43.5%	40.6%	1.07×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	56.5%	46.8%	49.8%	0.94×	2.14
Not both score & under 2.5	19.5%	21.3%	28.1%	0.76×	4.70
Not both score & over 2.5	17.5%	21.3%	12.6%	1.68×	4.70
Both score & under 2.5	6.5%	8.3%	9.8%	0.85×	11.99

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	76.6%	79.8%	79.8%	1.00×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	23.4%	20.2%	20.2%	1.00×	4.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	63.0%	66.0%	65.5%	1.01×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	37.0%	34.0%	34.5%	0.99×	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	47.2%	53.2%	51.6%	1.03×	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	27.8%	26.5%	27.8%	0.95×	3.78
Both score 1st half only	15.8%	15.5%	14.1%	1.10×	6.44
Both score in both halves	9.3%	6.9%	6.8%	1.01×	14.54

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.9%	80.1%	79.3%	1.01×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	25.1%	19.9%	20.7%	0.96×	5.03

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	73.0%	73.1%	66.9%	1.09×	1.37
A half without a goal	27.0%	26.9%	33.1%	0.81×	3.72

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	44.3%	41.8%	40.0%	1.05×	2.39
2-3 goals	35.9%	35.0%	38.7%	0.91×	2.86
0-1 goals	10.2%	17.1%	17.9%	0.96×	5.86
7+ goals	9.6%	7.7%	3.8%	2.02×	13.06

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.7%	31.9%	1.12×	2.80
Hamburger SV to score exactly 0	32.7%	33.7%	25.3%	1.33×	2.97
Hamburger SV to score exactly 2	20.4%	22.4%	22.0%	1.02×	4.47
Hamburger SV to score 3+	10.3%	13.0%	21.2%	0.61×	7.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score 3+	51.6%	42.8%	27.3%	1.57×	2.33
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score exactly 2	24.3%	23.4%	22.6%	1.04×	4.27
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score exactly 1	17.7%	19.1%	29.2%	0.65×	5.23
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score exactly 0	6.5%	10.5%	21.2%	0.49×	9.56

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig leading at HT	64.6%	71.2%	36.6%	1.95×	1.41
Draw at HT	25.8%	25.5%	34.2%	0.74×	3.93
Hamburger SV leading at HT	9.7%	10.5%	29.4%	0.36×	9.48

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig -1: 1	50.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
RasenBallsport Leipzig -1: 2	28.6%	26.7%	—	—	3.75
RasenBallsport Leipzig -1: X	20.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:1)	50.9%	51.2%	24.6%	2.08×	1.95
Hamburger SV (0:1)	28.6%	27.2%	58.5%	0.47×	3.68
Draw (0:1)	20.5%	24.4%	17.1%	1.43×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (0:2)	49.1%	52.1%	75.4%	0.69×	1.92
RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:2)	31.0%	28.5%	11.7%	2.44×	3.51
Draw (0:2)	19.9%	15.0%	13.1%	1.14×	6.67

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (0:3)	69.0%	72.0%	88.3%	0.82×	1.39
RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:3)	16.2%	16.1%	6.8%	2.36×	6.23
Draw (0:3)	14.8%	10.0%	5.1%	1.98×	9.97

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (0:4)	83.8%	87.1%	93.2%	0.93×	1.15
Draw (0:4)	8.9%	4.8%	5.2%	0.93×	20.73
RasenBallsport Leipzig (0:4)	7.3%	4.8%	1.7%	2.76×	20.85

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (1:0)	87.0%	86.0%	66.2%	1.30×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	8.4%	7.0%	16.4%	0.43×	14.30
Hamburger SV (1:0)	4.6%	3.5%	17.5%	0.20×	28.27

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig (2:0)	95.4%	96.4%	82.5%	1.17×	1.04
Draw (2:0)	3.3%	2.4%	10.1%	0.24×	41.21
Hamburger SV (2:0)	1.3%	2.4%	7.6%	0.32×	41.31

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.9%	48.4%	46.8%	1.03×	2.06
1st half highest scoring	37.0%	37.0%	26.3%	1.41×	2.70
Halves equal	21.1%	24.1%	27.1%	0.89×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig to concede	67.3%	66.6%	74.7%	0.89×	1.50
RasenBallsport Leipzig clean sheet	32.7%	33.4%	25.3%	1.32×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig clean sheet in 1st half	67.5%	68.6%	54.3%	1.26×	1.46
RasenBallsport Leipzig to concede in 1st half	32.5%	31.4%	45.7%	0.69×	3.19

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig to concede in 2nd half	51.6%	53.2%	56.6%	0.94×	1.88
RasenBallsport Leipzig clean sheet in 2nd half	48.4%	46.8%	43.4%	1.08×	2.14

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 0.5 goals	93.5%	92.1%	78.8%	1.17×	1.09
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 1.5 goals	75.9%	77.4%	49.8%	1.56×	1.29
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 3.5 goals	70.6%	74.3%	88.6%	0.84×	1.35
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 2.5 goals	51.6%	52.8%	27.3%	1.93×	1.89
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 2.5 goals	48.4%	47.2%	72.7%	0.65×	2.12
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 3.5 goals	29.4%	25.7%	11.4%	2.26×	3.89
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 1.5 goals	24.1%	22.6%	50.2%	0.45×	4.43
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 0.5 goals	6.5%	7.9%	21.2%	0.37×	12.67

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 0.5 in 1st half	77.1%	77.1%	51.7%	1.49×	1.30
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 1.5 in 1st half	56.6%	58.0%	80.9%	0.72×	1.72
RasenBallsport Leipzig over 1.5 in 1st half	43.4%	42.0%	19.1%	2.19×	2.38
RasenBallsport Leipzig under 0.5 in 1st half	22.9%	22.9%	48.3%	0.48×	4.36

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig scores more in 1st half	42.1%	42.5%	25.6%	1.66×	2.35
RasenBallsport Leipzig scores more in 2nd half	32.5%	32.9%	37.8%	0.87×	3.04
RasenBallsport Leipzig scores equally in both	25.5%	28.0%	36.7%	0.76×	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.5%	51.5%	42.3%	1.22×	1.94
Hamburger SV (home no bet)	45.5%	48.5%	57.7%	0.84×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig even goals	50.2%	50.4%	52.4%	0.96×	1.98
RasenBallsport Leipzig odd goals	49.8%	49.6%	47.6%	1.04×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	22.8%	24.2%	19.3%	1.25×	4.14
Any other HT score	19.1%	18.7%	6.6%	2.81×	5.36
HT 2-0	16.8%	18.6%	9.5%	1.96×	5.37
HT 0-0	15.4%	18.6%	23.3%	0.80×	5.38
HT 1-1	9.0%	7.1%	9.8%	0.73×	13.99
HT 2-1	6.6%	7.1%	4.3%	1.67×	14.02
HT 0-1	6.1%	7.1%	16.5%	0.43×	14.03
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.3%	3.5%	0.66×	43.41
HT 0-2	1.2%	2.3%	7.3%	0.32×	43.45
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.3%	1.3%	1.82×	43.44

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig at HT / RasenBallsport Leipzig at FT	56.8%	59.0%	28.0%	2.11×	1.70
Draw at HT / RasenBallsport Leipzig at FT	12.7%	12.7%	10.6%	1.19×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	7.6%	6.1%	13.9%	0.43×	16.53
RasenBallsport Leipzig at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	5.1%	1.19×	16.58
Draw at HT / Hamburger SV at FT	5.5%	6.0%	10.0%	0.60×	16.59
Hamburger SV at HT / Hamburger SV at FT	5.4%	6.0%	20.4%	0.30×	16.59
Hamburger SV at HT / Draw at FT	2.3%	3.4%	6.0%	0.57×	29.03
RasenBallsport Leipzig at HT / Hamburger SV at FT	2.1%	3.4%	3.8%	0.91×	29.04
Hamburger SV at HT / RasenBallsport Leipzig at FT	1.9%	3.4%	3.3%	1.04×	29.05

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score last	69.5%	70.5%	49.7%	1.42×	1.42
Hamburger SV to score last	28.4%	27.1%	44.6%	0.61×	3.69
No goal scored	2.1%	4.2%	5.9%	0.72×	23.61

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.9%	95.7%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
RasenBallsport Leipzig to lead by 1 at any time	82.7%	87.3%	59.5%	1.47×	1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	67.9%	69.5%	56.0%	1.24×	1.44
RasenBallsport Leipzig to lead by 2 at any time	58.8%	55.2%	33.1%	1.67×	1.81
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	38.0%	34.9%	25.6%	1.36×	2.87
RasenBallsport Leipzig to lead by 3 at any time	35.6%	34.8%	15.5%	2.24×	2.88
Hamburger SV to lead by 1 at any time	33.8%	29.4%	53.0%	0.55×	3.40
Hamburger SV to lead by 2 at any time	9.8%	6.7%	23.7%	0.28×	14.88
Hamburger SV to lead by 3 at any time	2.4%	1.6%	10.3%	0.16×	61.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.2%	83.3%	78.5%	1.06×	1.20
1-5 goals	78.6%	78.5%	83.3%	0.94×	1.27
2-5 goals	70.5%	72.3%	71.2%	1.01×	1.38
3-6 goals	64.5%	63.2%	58.6%	1.08×	1.58
1-4 goals	63.6%	63.2%	72.4%	0.87×	1.58
2-4 goals	55.4%	59.2%	60.3%	0.98×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.8%	53.4%	51.3%	1.04×	1.87
4-6 goals	44.3%	43.6%	40.0%	1.09×	2.29
1-3 goals	44.1%	43.6%	50.7%	0.86×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.7%	39.3%	40.4%	0.97×	2.55
2-3 goals	35.9%	39.3%	38.7%	1.02×	2.55
4-5 goals	34.6%	35.3%	32.7%	1.08×	2.83
5-6 goals	24.8%	24.8%	18.3%	1.36×	4.03
1-2 goals	23.8%	24.8%	32.1%	0.77×	4.03
7+ goals	9.6%	9.0%	3.8%	2.37×	11.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig never behind	64.1%	67.8%	47.0%	1.44×	1.48
Hamburger SV never behind	15.2%	18.3%	40.5%	0.45×	5.45

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	51.0%	44.7%	1.14×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.0%	55.3%	0.89×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.2%	51.6%	52.7%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.8%	48.4%	47.3%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	52.0%	53.0%	0.98×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	48.0%	47.0%	1.02×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.9%	95.4%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	89.8%	87.5%	82.1%	1.06×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	80.7%	82.1%	88.9%	0.92×	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	74.0%	72.4%	62.2%	1.16×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	65.7%	66.0%	78.0%	0.85×	1.52
Over 3.5 goals	53.8%	53.0%	43.6%	1.21×	1.89
Under 3.5 goals	46.2%	47.0%	56.4%	0.83×	2.13
Over 4.5 goals	34.3%	34.0%	22.0%	1.55×	2.94
Under 2.5 goals	26.0%	27.6%	37.8%	0.73×	3.62
Over 5.5 goals	19.3%	17.9%	11.1%	1.62×	5.59
Under 1.5 goals	10.2%	12.5%	17.9%	0.70×	7.98
Under 0.5 goals	2.1%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.70

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	89.4%	86.6%	95.9%	0.90×	1.16
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	87.8%	86.6%	77.7%	1.11×	1.16
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	77.3%	75.8%	87.6%	0.87×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.5%	67.6%	53.6%	1.26×	1.48
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	57.4%	55.3%	72.0%	0.77×	1.81
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	42.6%	44.7%	28.0%	1.60×	2.24
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.5%	32.4%	46.4%	0.70×	3.09
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	22.7%	24.2%	12.4%	1.95×	4.13
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	12.2%	13.4%	22.3%	0.60×	7.46
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	10.6%	13.4%	4.1%	3.28×	7.46

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	84.6%	86.4%	76.7%	1.13×	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	71.3%	71.1%	84.8%	0.84×	1.41
Over 1.5 in 1st half	55.7%	62.8%	41.3%	1.52×	1.59
Under 1.5 in 1st half	44.3%	37.2%	58.7%	0.63×	2.69
Over 2.5 in 1st half	28.7%	28.9%	15.2%	1.90×	3.47
Under 0.5 in 1st half	15.4%	13.6%	23.3%	0.59×	7.34

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.3%	85.3%	84.3%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	67.9%	67.7%	73.4%	0.92×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	59.2%	54.9%	55.4%	0.99×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	40.8%	45.1%	44.6%	1.01×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	32.1%	32.3%	26.6%	1.21×	3.10
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.7%	14.7%	15.7%	0.94×	6.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV not to score in both halves	83.2%	84.4%	72.3%	1.17×	1.19
RasenBallsport Leipzig to score in both halves	55.4%	57.4%	35.1%	1.63×	1.74
RasenBallsport Leipzig not to score in both halves	44.6%	42.6%	64.9%	0.66×	2.35
Hamburger SV to score in both halves	16.8%	15.6%	27.7%	0.56×	6.42

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	63.0%	60.2%	59.4%	1.01×	1.66
Only RasenBallsport Leipzig scores	30.6%	33.2%	19.6%	1.70×	3.01
Only Hamburger SV scores	4.3%	4.6%	15.5%	0.30×	21.64
Neither team scores	2.1%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.73

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.2%	22.4%	18.8%	1.19×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	19.5%	17.5%	21.8%	0.80×	5.70
6 or more goals	19.3%	17.5%	11.1%	1.59×	5.70
Exactly 2 goals	15.7%	17.5%	20.1%	0.87×	5.70
Exactly 5 goals	15.1%	17.5%	11.1%	1.59×	5.70
Exactly 1 goals	8.1%	7.8%	12.2%	0.64×	12.89
Exactly 0 goals	2.1%	4.5%	5.8%	0.77×	22.17

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	28.9%	28.6%	35.6%	0.80×	3.50
3+ goals in 1st half	28.7%	28.6%	15.2%	1.88×	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	27.0%	28.5%	26.3%	1.09×	3.51
No goals in 1st half	15.4%	15.1%	23.3%	0.65×	6.63

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	59.2%	53.4%	55.4%	0.96×	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.2%	29.8%	29.1%	1.02×	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	13.7%	14.5%	15.7%	0.93×	6.89

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV not to win both halves	97.9%	97.3%	90.5%	1.07×	1.03
RasenBallsport Leipzig not to win both halves	68.2%	70.4%	84.2%	0.84×	1.42
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win both halves	31.8%	29.6%	15.8%	1.87×	3.37
Hamburger SV to win both halves	2.1%	2.7%	9.5%	0.29×	36.40

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win either half	82.0%	82.9%	57.8%	1.44×	1.21
Hamburger SV to win neither half	71.1%	72.8%	50.5%	1.44×	1.37
Hamburger SV to win either half	28.9%	27.2%	49.5%	0.55×	3.68
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win neither half	18.0%	17.1%	42.2%	0.40×	5.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV not to win to nil	95.7%	96.2%	84.5%	1.14×	1.04
RasenBallsport Leipzig not to win to nil	69.4%	70.2%	80.4%	0.87×	1.42
RasenBallsport Leipzig to win to nil	30.6%	29.8%	19.6%	1.52×	3.36
Hamburger SV to win to nil	4.3%	3.8%	15.5%	0.25×	26.02

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RasenBallsport Leipzig by 3+	31.0%	27.6%	11.7%	2.36×	3.62
RasenBallsport Leipzig by 1	20.5%	24.1%	17.1%	1.41×	4.15
RasenBallsport Leipzig by 2	19.9%	16.9%	13.1%	1.29×	5.90
Draw	15.6%	16.9%	24.8%	0.68×	5.91
Hamburger SV by 1	8.4%	7.3%	16.4%	0.44×	13.79
Hamburger SV by 2	3.3%	2.8%	10.1%	0.28×	35.59
Hamburger SV by 3+	1.3%	2.8%	7.6%	0.37×	35.64

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.48 xGHamburger SV 0.51 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right Hamburger SV attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
7'	Hamburger SV	Yussuf Poulsen	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	David Møller Wolfe
11'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Benjamin Henrichs	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Assan Ouédraogo
14'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Assan Ouédraogo	0.02	Set Piece	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Neil El Aynaoui
16'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Tidiam Gomis	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Ezechiel Banzuzi
21'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Willi Orban	0.03	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	David Raum
24'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Willi Orban	0.02	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Assan Ouédraogo
25'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Neil El Aynaoui	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
27'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Antonio Nusa	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
40'	Hamburger SV	Patson Daka	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Zakaria El Ouahdi
43'	Hamburger SV	Nicolai Remberg	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Patson Daka
43'	Hamburger SV	Patson Daka	0.03	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
44'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Benjamin Henrichs	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Antonio Nusa
45'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Brajan Gruda	0.03	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	David Raum
48'	Hamburger SV	David Møller Wolfe	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
51'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	David Raum	0.06	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
52'	Hamburger SV	Zakaria El Ouahdi	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Patson Daka
53'	Hamburger SV	Nicolás Capaldo	0.06	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Albert Grønbæk
59'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Christopher Nkunku	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Tidiam Gomis
61'	Hamburger SV	Patson Daka	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Terem Igobor Moffi
62'	Hamburger SV	Terem Igobor Moffi	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Albert Grønbæk
64'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Christopher Nkunku	0.05	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	David Raum
65'	Hamburger SV	Zakaria El Ouahdi	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Albert Grønbæk
69'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Christopher Nkunku	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Brajan Gruda
71'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Antonio Nusa	0.02	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	David Raum
71'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Willi Orban	0.67	Set Piece	Right Foot	Goal	Antonio Nusa
73'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Christopher Nkunku	0.44	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Antonio Nusa
76'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Rômulo	0.46	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
79'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Neil El Aynaoui	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
88'	RasenBallsport Leipzig	Brajan Gruda	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Ezechiel Banzuzi

Players