RasenBallsport Leipzig v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 9
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.37 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+1.60 – -0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
65.4%
Draw
21.6%
Hoffenheim win
13.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.31–0.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1.40 xGHoffenheim 1.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 1' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 2' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Leo Østigard |
| 9' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Hoffenheim |
Tom Bischof | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bazoumana Touré |
| 14' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Vermeeren |
| 17' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Goal | David Raum |
| 33' |
Hoffenheim |
Tom Bischof | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 42' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 46' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 46' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Kosta Nedeljkovic | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Loïs Openda | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Kosta Nedeljkovic |
| 55' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 59' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Tidiam Gomis | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Willi Orban |
| 69' |
Hoffenheim |
Tom Bischof | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Hoffenheim |
Valentin Gendrey | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Anton Stach |
| 83' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 83' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tidiam Gomis |
| 88' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Tidiam Gomis | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yussuf Poulsen | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Raum |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentin Gendrey DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Tom Bischof DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Andrej Kramaric AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.65 |
| Anton Stach DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Stanley N'Soki DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bazoumana Touré AMR | 84 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.54 | 0.09 | 0.62 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Marius Bülter AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Akpoguma Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Gift Orban Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Jurásek Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Hlozek Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Umut Tohumcu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Xavi Simons AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Loïs Openda FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Kosta Nedeljkovic DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Nicolas Seiwald DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Bote Baku AMC | 48 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Arthur Vermeeren DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Christoph Baumgartner Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 42 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.42 | 0.53 |
| Lukas Klostermann Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Amadou Haidara Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Yussuf Poulsen Sub | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.70 |