RasenBallsport Leipzig v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 20 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 8
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.57 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+2.03 – -0.53
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
46.9%
Draw
25.0%
Hoffenheim win
28.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.79–1.36 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.18–1.59 | 2-1 9% | 73% | 71% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.97 xGHoffenheim 0.53 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ozan Kabak |
| 5' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xaver Schlager | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 8' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 14' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.69 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 20' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Goal | David Raum |
| 29' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Brajan Gruda |
| 35' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 43' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Yan Diomande |
| 47' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alexander Prass |
| 52' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tim Lemperle |
| 52' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 61' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 64' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 66' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Ezechiel Banzuzi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Benjamin Henrichs | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 79' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 86' |
Hoffenheim |
Muhammed Damar | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grischa Prömel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Alexander Prass MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Wouter Burger MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Bernardo DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Bazoumana Touré ML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fisnik Asllani FW | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albian Hajdari Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Andrej Kramaric Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Max Moerstedt Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cole Campbell Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Muhammed Damar Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brajan Gruda FWR | 90 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1.33 | 0.73 | 2.19 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.88 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.67 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rômulo FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Bote Baku DR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Xaver Schlager MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.31 |
| Yan Diomande FWL | 74 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.80 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Antonio Nusa Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Benjamin Henrichs Sub | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Max Finkgrafe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |