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RasenBallsport Leipzig v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 9 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

Shots
11 – 7
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.38
Goals − xG
+0.07 – -0.72
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.11.62.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Benjamin Sesko 15' — goalXavi Simons 34' — goal
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1.93 xGSt. Pauli 0.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jackson Irvine 2' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Benjamin Sesko 15' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Xavi Simons 34' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Noah Weißhaupt 46' — Shot On Post (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Amadou Haidara 48' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Set Piece)Castello Lukeba 55' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Elias Saad 60' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Eric Smith 71' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Direct Freekick)Bote Baku 83' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 83' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jackson Irvine 85' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Set Piece)Johannes Eggestein 87' — Saved Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Hauke Wahl 88' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Bote Baku 90' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Christoph Baumgartner 90' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 90' — Saved Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 90' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 93' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right St. Pauli attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' St. Pauli Jackson Irvine 0.08 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
15' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Goal Xavi Simons
34' RasenBallsport Leipzig Xavi Simons 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Goal Benjamin Sesko
46' St. Pauli Noah Weißhaupt 0.08 Set Piece Right Foot Shot On Post
48' RasenBallsport Leipzig Amadou Haidara 0.10 Set Piece Missed Shot Xavi Simons
55' RasenBallsport Leipzig Castello Lukeba 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot David Raum
60' St. Pauli Elias Saad 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jackson Irvine
71' St. Pauli Eric Smith 0.10 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
83' RasenBallsport Leipzig Bote Baku 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
83' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nicolas Seiwald
85' St. Pauli Jackson Irvine 0.12 Set Piece Saved Shot Eric Smith
87' St. Pauli Johannes Eggestein 0.26 Open Play Saved Shot Eric Smith
88' St. Pauli Hauke Wahl 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Philipp Treu
90' RasenBallsport Leipzig Bote Baku 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
90' RasenBallsport Leipzig Christoph Baumgartner 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
90' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Xavi Simons
90' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
93' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Xavi Simons

Players

RasenBallsport Leipzig

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Xavi Simons AMC 90 1 1 1 4 0.40 1.01 1.26
Bote Baku DMR 90 0 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 0.57
Amadou Haidara MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.40
David Raum DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.40
Péter Gulácsi GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Castello Lukeba DC 84 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.80
Benjamin Sesko FW 74 1 1 1 1 0.40 0.40 0.80
Antonio Nusa AMC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Kevin Kampl MC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Willi Orban DC 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Lutsharel Geertruida DC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Nicolas Seiwald Sub 43 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Loïs Openda Sub 16 0 0 4 0 0.68 0.00 0.63
Christoph Baumgartner Sub 16 0 0 1 0 0.13 0.00 0.13
El Chadaille Bitshiabu Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lukas Klostermann Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

St. Pauli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Johannes Eggestein FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.26 0.00 0.26
Jackson Irvine MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.20 0.07 0.07
Eric Smith DC 90 0 0 1 2 0.10 0.38 0.33
Hauke Wahl DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.34
Nikola Vasilj GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
James Sands MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.28
Philipp Treu DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.28
Noah Weißhaupt FWL 81 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.07
David Nemeth DC 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlo Boukhalfa FWR 58 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Siebe Van der Heyden DML 58 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Elias Saad Sub 32 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Adam Dzwigala Sub 32 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.28
Abdoulie Ceesay Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Scott Banks Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.26
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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