RasenBallsport Leipzig v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 9 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 7
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.33 – +0.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
71.2%
Draw
18.4%
St. Pauli win
10.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 23 from 24.1 expected and conceded 21 from 21.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLWLWLWL last 10
scored 23
from 24.1 xG
conceded 21
from 21.3 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.12–0.67 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.60–0.81 | 2-0 11% | 66% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.33 xGSt. Pauli 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.76 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Assan Ouédraogo |
| 20' |
 St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Assan Ouédraogo |
| 31' |
St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Connor Metcalfe |
| 33' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Andréas Hountondji |
| 35' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martijn Kaars |
| 40' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Brajan Gruda |
| 44' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | David Raum |
| 44' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xaver Schlager | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 53' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Yan Diomande |
| 53' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Goal | David Raum |
| 60' |
St. Pauli |
Louis Oppie | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andréas Hountondji |
| 76' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
St. Pauli |
Abdoulie Ceesay | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jackson Irvine |
| 88' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Max Finkgrafe |
| 90' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rômulo |
| 93' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Abdoulie Ceesay |
Players
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.14 | 1.26 |
| Xaver Schlager MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Rômulo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Yan Diomande FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Brajan Gruda FWR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.06 | 1.24 |
| Assan Ouédraogo MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.08 | 0.42 |
| David Raum DL | 70 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.42 |
| Max Finkgrafe Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Nicolas Seiwald Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Nusa Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Benjamin Henrichs Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martijn Kaars FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.04 | 0.74 |
| Eric Smith DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| Connor Metcalfe MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Joel Chima Fujita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tomoya Ando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Andréas Hountondji FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| Louis Oppie DML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lars Ritzka DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hauke Wahl Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Finley Stevens Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| Danel Sinani Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mathias Rasmussen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |