RasenBallsport Leipzig v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 15
On target
9 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.24 – 0.11
Goals − xG
+1.27 – -0.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
36.9%
Draw
26.2%
VfB Stuttgart win
36.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–1.42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.65–1.94 | 1-1 9% | 70% | 69% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1.73 xGVfB Stuttgart 1.07 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 2' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Assan Ouédraogo |
| 4' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 7' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 9' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 12' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 15' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 24' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 27' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 29' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 31' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rômulo |
| 32' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bote Baku |
| 38' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Luca Jaquez | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 40' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bote Baku |
| 41' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 44' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 47' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 60' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Luca Jaquez |
| 71' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 71' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 76' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Atakan Karazor |
| 80' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 86' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rômulo |
| 90' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lukas Klostermann |
| 93' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.51 |
| Luca Jaquez DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Joshua Vagnoman MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.52 |
| Atakan Karazor MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Angelo Stiller MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.44 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Deniz Undav FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Chris Führich FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.41 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt ML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Nikolas Nartey Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jamie Leweling Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Badredine Bouanani Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rômulo FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.75 | 0.14 | 1.12 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| Yan Diomande FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 0.61 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.71 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 87 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 0.29 |
| Assan Ouédraogo MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.28 | 0.64 |
| Johan Bakayoko Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Xaver Schlager Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lukas Klostermann Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |