RasenBallsport Leipzig v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 15
On target
12 – 5
Shots in box
15 – 9
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.75 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.43 – -0.78
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.RasenBallsport Leipzig win
55.5%
Draw
22.9%
Werder Bremen win
21.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 23 from 24.1 expected and conceded 21 from 21.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLWLWLWL last 10
scored 23
from 24.1 xG
conceded 21
from 21.3 xG
Werder Bremen have scored 14 from 12.6 expected and conceded 19 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLLLWDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 12.6 xG
conceded 19
from 20.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.96–1.16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.03–1.44 | 2-1 9% | 67% | 66% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2.43 xGWerder Bremen 0.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking right
Werder Bremen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 3' |
 Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 4' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bote Baku |
| 6' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Friedl | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Keke Maximilian Topp |
| 12' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Seiwald |
| 15' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 25' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 37' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.28 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bote Baku |
| 39' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 46' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jens Stage |
| 47' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 47' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 49' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Karim Coulibaly |
| 50' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amos Pieper |
| 51' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 58' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.81 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Assan Ouédraogo |
| 61' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 62' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bote Baku |
| 69' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.20 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Keke Maximilian Topp |
| 70' |
Werder Bremen |
Amos Pieper | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 74' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Xaver Schlager | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 81' |
Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 85' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 86' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 87' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Johan Bakayoko | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 93' |
Werder Bremen |
Victor Boniface | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Willi Orban | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 95' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Victor Boniface |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romano Schmid AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| Jens Stage DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Senne Lynen DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Marco Friedl DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Keke Maximilian Topp FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| Marco Grüll AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Cameron Puertas AMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Victor Boniface Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| Samuel Mbangula Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Justin Njinmah Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrice Covic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1.30 | 0.56 | 1.55 |
| Yan Diomande FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Assan Ouédraogo MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.81 | 1.27 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.33 | 1.18 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.02 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.92 |
| Conrad Harder FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Johan Bakayoko Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Xaver Schlager Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Finkgrafe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |