Rayo Vallecano v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 20 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 15
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 9
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.33 – 0.18
Goals − xG
+0.43 – -1.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
49.4%
Draw
26.5%
Alaves win
24.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano have scored 16 from 15.0 expected and conceded 18 from 16.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLDLWLWDD last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 18
from 16.3 xG
Alaves have scored 14 from 14.6 expected and conceded 12 from 12.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWDWWLLDLL last 10
scored 14
from 14.6 xG
conceded 12
from 12.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.46–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.69–1.16 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 0.57 xGAlaves 2.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Alaves attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fran Pérez |
| 11' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Unai López |
| 12' |
 Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 22' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.22 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Unai López |
| 25' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 29' |
Alaves |
Abderrahmane Rebbach | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Rodríguez |
| 31' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonny |
| 31' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Unai López |
| 43' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Lucas Boyé |
| 47' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jorge De Frutos |
| 50' |
Alaves |
Ángel Pérez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Martínez |
| 60' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 68' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Randy Nteka | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Unai López |
| 73' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Youssef Lekhedim |
| 82' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Unai López |
| 83' |
Alaves |
Mariano | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 89' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Alaves |
Nicolás Valentini | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 95' |
Alaves |
Mariano | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Martínez |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Martínez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.65 | 0.11 | 1.71 |
| Pablo Ibáñez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Ángel Pérez DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| Ville Koski DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonny DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Lucas Boyé FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Mikel Rodríguez MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Mariano Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Denis Suárez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.46 |
| Youssef Lekhedim Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.49 |
| Nicolás Valentini Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Carles Aleñá Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.46 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Sergio Camello FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Unai López MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.03 | 0.37 | 0.06 |
| Pathé Ciss DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge De Frutos MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Randy Nteka Sub | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Fran Pérez ML | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Pelayo Fernández DC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro García Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Óscar Valentín Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Cárdenas Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isi Palazón MC | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 |