Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Rayo Vallecano

15:00 UTC

Athletic Club

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 799h before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano win

46.2%

model 43.5%

Draw

23.3%

model 24.8%

Athletic Club win

30.5%

model 31.7%

462330

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.7%
2-1 9.1%
1-0 9.0%
1-2 7.5%
0-1 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	54.2%	Under 2.5	45.8%
BTTS yes	57.2%	BTTS no	42.8%
Rayo Vallecano 1+	78.9%	Rayo Vallecano 2+	46.1%
Athletic Club 1+	72.5%	Athletic Club 2+	37.0%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

88/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 48%

52.3% fair odds 1.91

moderate signal · 1766 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Athletic Club not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 85%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1047 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Rayo Vallecano carry the stronger rating, 1562 Elo against 1521.
Rayo Vallecano have created 1.58 xG a match over their last five while Athletic Club have allowed 1.45.
At home Rayo Vallecano average 1.73 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Rayo Vallecano have an estimated 46.2% win probability, against 30.5% for Athletic Club and 23.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.56 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.29 for Athletic Club.

Why Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano carry the stronger rating, 1562 Elo against 1521. Rayo Vallecano have created 1.58 xG a match over their last five while Athletic Club have allowed 1.45. At home Rayo Vallecano average 1.73 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Athletic Club can win

Athletic Club have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Rayo Vallecano have allowed 1.60. Away from home Athletic Club average 1.32 xG a match.

Key players

Rayo Vallecano's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Álvaro García (0.40), Jorge De Frutos (0.34), Sergio Camello (0.28). Athletic Club's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Iñaki Williams (0.41), Gorka Guruzeta (0.37), Nico Williams (0.28).

Availability

Rayo Vallecano had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.44 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Rayo Vallecano: Jorge De Frutos (suspended), Fran Pérez (suspended). 1 of Athletic Club's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rayo Vallecano: 46% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.29 xG a match from set pieces. Athletic Club: 41% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Rayo Vallecano are the model's most likely outcome at 46.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 88/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

DWDDWWLDLW last 10 scored 18 from 15.8 xG conceded 16 from 16.0 xG

Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LWLLDLLLWW last 10 scored 15 from 14.7 xG conceded 18 from 14.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	442532	1.56–1.29	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	362638	1.34–1.39	1-1 12%	51%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to win	43.5%	43.9%	46.8%	0.94×	2.28
Athletic Club to win	31.7%	29.0%	28.1%	1.03×	3.45
Draw	24.8%	22.2%	25.2%	0.88×	4.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano & both teams score	21.8%	22.6%	21.7%	1.04×	4.43
Rayo Vallecano & not both score	21.7%	22.6%	25.3%	0.89×	4.43
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	17.8%	20.2%	0.88×	5.63
Athletic Club & both teams score	16.4%	17.7%	13.7%	1.30×	5.64
Athletic Club & not both score	15.3%	17.7%	14.6%	1.22×	5.64
Draw & not both score	5.8%	7.3%	5.1%	1.43×	13.71

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano & over 1.5	34.5%	33.2%	34.1%	0.97×	3.01
Rayo Vallecano & under 3.5	28.8%	25.5%	33.0%	0.77×	3.92
Rayo Vallecano & over 2.5	27.5%	25.5%	28.0%	0.91×	3.92
Athletic Club & over 1.5	24.2%	21.5%	21.2%	1.02×	4.65
Athletic Club & under 3.5	21.9%	21.5%	21.7%	0.99×	4.65
Athletic Club & over 2.5	19.3%	17.6%	16.7%	1.05×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	17.6%	20.2%	0.87×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	17.5%	17.6%	20.1%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	17.5%	17.6%	20.1%	0.88×	5.69
Rayo Vallecano & under 2.5	16.0%	17.6%	18.9%	0.93×	5.70
Rayo Vallecano & over 3.5	14.8%	12.7%	13.9%	0.91×	7.86
Athletic Club & under 2.5	12.3%	12.7%	11.6%	1.10×	7.86
Athletic Club & over 3.5	9.7%	7.5%	6.6%	1.13×	13.40
Rayo Vallecano & under 1.5	9.0%	7.5%	12.8%	0.58×	13.40
Draw & over 2.5	7.3%	7.5%	5.2%	1.43×	13.41
Draw & over 3.5	7.3%	7.5%	5.2%	1.43×	13.41
Athletic Club & under 1.5	7.5%	7.5%	7.1%	1.05×	13.41
Draw & under 1.5	5.8%	7.5%	5.1%	1.46×	13.42

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (1UP)	60.0%	62.5%	63.2%	0.99×	1.60
Athletic Club (1UP)	49.8%	44.7%	47.1%	0.95×	2.24

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (2UP)	43.5%	46.7%	48.7%	0.96×	2.14
Athletic Club (2UP)	31.7%	30.5%	29.7%	1.03×	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to win 2nd half	38.3%	37.5%	39.5%	0.95×	2.67
2nd half drawn	34.7%	33.8%	33.0%	1.03×	2.96
Athletic Club to win 2nd half	27.0%	27.4%	27.7%	0.99×	3.64

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (+2.5)	91.2%	92.3%	90.0%	1.02×	1.08
Athletic Club (+1.5)	78.2%	78.6%	79.2%	0.99×	1.27
Rayo Vallecano (+0.5)	68.3%	69.0%	71.9%	0.96×	1.45
Athletic Club (+0.5)	56.5%	57.1%	53.2%	1.07×	1.75
Rayo Vallecano (-0.5)	43.5%	42.9%	46.8%	0.92×	2.33
Athletic Club (-0.5)	31.7%	31.0%	28.1%	1.10×	3.22
Rayo Vallecano (-1.5)	21.8%	21.4%	20.8%	1.03×	4.67
Rayo Vallecano (-2.5)	8.8%	7.7%	10.0%	0.78×	12.93

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to concede	78.9%	76.1%	80.4%	0.95×	1.31
Athletic Club clean sheet	21.1%	23.9%	19.6%	1.22×	4.19

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club clean sheet in 1st half	52.5%	54.7%	51.9%	1.05×	1.83
Athletic Club to concede in 1st half	47.5%	45.3%	48.1%	0.94×	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club over 2.5 corners	84.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Athletic Club over 3.5 corners	71.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Athletic Club under 6.5 corners	69.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Athletic Club over 4.5 corners	57.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Athletic Club under 5.5 corners	57.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Athletic Club under 4.5 corners	43.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Athletic Club over 5.5 corners	42.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Athletic Club over 6.5 corners	30.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Athletic Club under 3.5 corners	28.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Athletic Club under 2.5 corners	15.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 3.5 goals	95.8%	97.3%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Athletic Club under 2.5 goals	85.9%	88.9%	90.0%	0.99×	1.13
Athletic Club over 0.5 goals	72.5%	71.9%	69.7%	1.03×	1.39
Athletic Club under 1.5 goals	63.0%	64.2%	68.1%	0.94×	1.56
Athletic Club over 1.5 goals	37.0%	35.8%	31.9%	1.12×	2.79
Athletic Club under 0.5 goals	27.5%	28.1%	30.3%	0.93×	3.56
Athletic Club over 2.5 goals	14.1%	11.1%	10.0%	1.12×	8.99
Athletic Club over 3.5 goals	4.2%	2.7%	2.7%	0.99×	37.02

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	87.7%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Athletic Club under 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	59.1%	63.4%	0.93×	1.69
Athletic Club over 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	40.9%	36.6%	1.12×	2.45
Athletic Club over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	12.3%	6.7%	1.83×	8.11

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (away no bet)	63.7%	59.1%	65.1%	0.91×	1.69
Draw (away no bet)	36.3%	40.9%	34.9%	1.17×	2.45

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club even goals	53.8%	52.4%	53.9%	0.97×	1.91
Athletic Club odd goals	46.2%	47.6%	46.1%	1.03×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.3%	81.8%	86.9%	0.94×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.7%	18.2%	13.1%	1.39×	5.48

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.2%	65.1%	62.4%	1.04×	1.54
Both halves under 1.5 goals	33.8%	34.9%	37.6%	0.93×	2.86

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.8%	59.2%	52.3%	1.13×	1.69
Rayo Vallecano to score 2+ in a row	37.1%	37.3%	34.3%	1.09×	2.68
Athletic Club to score 2+ in a row	27.8%	25.2%	23.6%	1.07×	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.8%	21.7%	18.9%	1.15×	4.60
Rayo Vallecano to score 3+ in a row	13.1%	12.2%	13.0%	0.94×	8.19
Athletic Club to score 3+ in a row	8.0%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.60

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano corners (+3.5)	82.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Athletic Club corners (+3.5)	80.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Rayo Vallecano corners (+2.5)	75.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Athletic Club corners (+2.5)	72.7%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Rayo Vallecano corners (+1.5)	66.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Athletic Club corners (+1.5)	63.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Rayo Vallecano corners (-1.5)	36.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Athletic Club corners (-1.5)	33.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Rayo Vallecano corners (-2.5)	27.3%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Athletic Club corners (-2.5)	24.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Rayo Vallecano corners (-3.5)	19.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Athletic Club corners (-3.5)	17.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	40.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
0-8 corners	30.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	78.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	69.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	68.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	60.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	59.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	50.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	49.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	40.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	40.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 12.5 corners	31.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 8.5 corners	30.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	21.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.7%	11.6%	15.1%	0.77×	8.63
1-0	9.0%	7.3%	12.8%	0.57×	13.74
2-1	9.1%	7.3%	9.7%	0.75×	13.74
0-1	7.5%	7.3%	7.1%	1.03×	13.75
1-2	7.5%	7.3%	8.3%	0.87×	13.75
2-0	7.0%	7.3%	6.2%	1.17×	13.75
0-0	5.8%	7.3%	5.1%	1.42×	13.75
2-2	5.9%	7.3%	4.4%	1.67×	13.75
0-2	4.8%	1.8%	4.6%	0.39×	55.39
3-1	4.7%	1.8%	3.6%	0.50×	55.39
1-3	3.2%	1.8%	1.9%	0.97×	55.43
2-3	2.5%	1.8%	2.2%	0.80×	55.45
3-0	3.6%	1.8%	4.6%	0.39×	55.42
3-2	3.0%	1.8%	3.2%	0.56×	55.43
Any other score	3.1%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.43
0-3	2.1%	1.8%	2.0%	0.91×	55.46
3-3	1.3%	1.8%	1.0%	1.81×	55.48
4-0	1.4%	1.8%	1.6%	1.11×	55.47
4-1	1.8%	1.8%	2.0%	0.90×	55.46
0-4	0.7%	1.8%	0.9%	2.07×	55.49
1-4	1.0%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.48
2-4	0.8%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.49
3-4	0.4%	1.8%	0.4%	4.82×	55.50
4-2	1.2%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.48
4-3	0.5%	1.8%	0.7%	2.41×	55.50
4-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.1%	14.47×	55.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano leading at HT (DNB)	53.6%	55.3%	62.3%	0.89×	1.81
Athletic Club leading at HT (DNB)	46.4%	44.7%	37.7%	1.19×	2.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or Athletic Club (12)	75.2%	77.8%	74.8%	1.04×	1.29
Rayo Vallecano or draw (1X)	68.3%	71.0%	71.9%	0.99×	1.41
Athletic Club or draw (X2)	56.5%	56.1%	53.2%	1.05×	1.78

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or draw at HT	72.8%	71.5%	78.5%	0.91×	1.40
Athletic Club or draw at HT	68.7%	66.3%	64.5%	1.03×	1.51
Rayo Vallecano or Athletic Club at HT	58.5%	58.2%	56.8%	1.03×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or draw (1UP)	68.3%	75.1%	78.2%	0.96×	1.33
Athletic Club or draw (1UP)	56.5%	63.8%	60.1%	1.06×	1.57

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or draw in 2nd half	73.0%	72.6%	72.3%	1.00×	1.38
Rayo Vallecano or Athletic Club in 2nd half	65.3%	66.2%	67.0%	0.99×	1.51
Athletic Club or draw in 2nd half	61.7%	62.5%	60.5%	1.03×	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.8%	59.4%	62.2%	0.96×	1.68
Neither half drawn	38.2%	40.6%	37.8%	1.07×	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (DNB)	57.9%	63.3%	62.5%	1.01×	1.58
Athletic Club (DNB)	42.1%	36.7%	37.5%	0.98×	2.72

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score first	51.5%	53.6%	55.4%	0.97×	1.87
Athletic Club to score first	42.7%	41.4%	39.6%	1.05×	2.42
No goal scored	5.8%	6.2%	5.1%	1.21×	16.09

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.2%	56.7%	55.3%	1.03×	1.76
Not both teams to score	42.8%	43.3%	44.7%	0.97×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	45.6%	45.2%	40.3%	1.12×	2.21
Not both score & under 2.5	34.2%	34.5%	35.4%	0.97×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.7%	11.7%	15.1%	0.78×	8.53
Not both score & over 2.5	8.6%	8.7%	9.5%	0.92×	11.45

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.9%	81.3%	86.2%	0.94×	1.23
Both teams to score 2+	17.1%	18.7%	13.8%	1.36×	5.34

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.5%	69.5%	71.4%	0.97×	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.5%	30.5%	28.6%	1.07×	3.28

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.0%	57.5%	60.3%	0.95×	1.74
Both score 2nd half only	24.2%	24.4%	23.1%	1.06×	4.09
Both score 1st half only	14.5%	11.6%	11.2%	1.03×	8.62
Both score in both halves	6.4%	6.5%	5.6%	1.15×	15.47

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.2%	79.9%	83.3%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	20.8%	20.1%	16.7%	1.20×	4.98

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.7%	55.6%	54.8%	1.01×	1.80
A half without a goal	43.3%	44.4%	45.2%	0.98×	2.25

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.8%	45.9%	49.8%	0.92×	2.18
4-6 goals	29.2%	27.7%	23.4%	1.18×	3.61
0-1 goals	22.3%	22.8%	24.8%	0.92×	4.39
7+ goals	2.6%	2.0%	2.2%	0.87×	51.26

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to score exactly 1	35.5%	34.5%	38.0%	0.91×	2.90
Athletic Club to score exactly 0	27.5%	27.1%	30.3%	0.90×	3.69
Athletic Club to score exactly 2	22.9%	24.0%	22.0%	1.09×	4.17
Athletic Club to score 3+	14.1%	13.5%	10.0%	1.35×	7.43

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 1	32.8%	30.6%	38.4%	0.80×	3.27
Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 2	25.5%	27.0%	22.7%	1.19×	3.70
Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 0	21.1%	22.9%	19.6%	1.17×	4.36
Rayo Vallecano to score 3+	20.5%	22.9%	19.7%	1.16×	4.36

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.5%	41.8%	43.2%	0.97×	2.39
Rayo Vallecano leading at HT	31.3%	33.7%	35.5%	0.95×	2.97
Athletic Club leading at HT	27.2%	28.5%	21.5%	1.33×	3.51

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano -1: 2	56.5%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Rayo Vallecano -1: 1	21.8%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Rayo Vallecano -1: X	21.7%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (0:1)	56.5%	55.3%	53.2%	1.04×	1.81
Rayo Vallecano (0:1)	21.8%	24.4%	20.8%	1.17×	4.10
Draw (0:1)	21.7%	24.4%	26.2%	0.93×	4.10

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (0:2)	78.2%	77.6%	79.2%	0.98×	1.29
Draw (0:2)	13.1%	11.7%	11.0%	1.07×	8.51
Rayo Vallecano (0:2)	8.8%	7.2%	10.0%	0.72×	13.86

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (0:3)	91.2%	92.5%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.9%	6.9%	7.1%	0.97×	14.54
Rayo Vallecano (0:3)	2.9%	2.3%	3.0%	0.78×	42.96

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (0:4)	97.1%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	2.4%	0.53×	80.27
Rayo Vallecano (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	0.7%	1.65×	80.94

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (1:0)	68.3%	70.4%	71.9%	0.98×	1.42
Draw (1:0)	18.0%	16.4%	17.7%	0.93×	6.11
Athletic Club (1:0)	13.7%	11.8%	10.6%	1.12×	8.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (2:0)	86.3%	89.2%	89.4%	1.00×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	9.0%	6.6%	6.8%	0.97×	15.06
Athletic Club (2:0)	4.7%	2.7%	3.9%	0.71×	36.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.8%	48.7%	51.3%	0.95×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.8%	26.1%	26.3%	0.99×	3.83
Halves equal	24.5%	23.2%	22.5%	1.03×	4.31

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to concede	72.5%	71.2%	69.7%	1.02×	1.41
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet	27.5%	28.8%	30.3%	0.95×	3.47

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet in 1st half	56.1%	59.0%	63.4%	0.93×	1.70
Rayo Vallecano to concede in 1st half	43.9%	41.0%	36.6%	1.12×	2.44

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano over 2.5 corners	85.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Rayo Vallecano over 3.5 corners	73.2%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Rayo Vallecano under 6.5 corners	67.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Rayo Vallecano over 4.5 corners	59.0%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Rayo Vallecano under 5.5 corners	55.1%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Rayo Vallecano over 5.5 corners	44.9%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Rayo Vallecano under 4.5 corners	41.0%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Rayo Vallecano over 6.5 corners	32.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Rayo Vallecano under 3.5 corners	26.8%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Rayo Vallecano under 2.5 corners	14.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano under 3.5 goals	92.7%	92.1%	92.7%	0.99×	1.09
Rayo Vallecano under 2.5 goals	79.5%	76.8%	80.3%	0.96×	1.30
Rayo Vallecano over 0.5 goals	78.9%	76.8%	80.4%	0.95×	1.30
Rayo Vallecano under 1.5 goals	53.9%	52.8%	57.8%	0.91×	1.89
Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 goals	46.1%	47.2%	42.2%	1.12×	2.12
Rayo Vallecano under 0.5 goals	21.1%	23.2%	19.6%	1.19×	4.31
Rayo Vallecano over 2.5 goals	20.5%	23.2%	19.7%	1.18×	4.31
Rayo Vallecano over 3.5 goals	7.3%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.65

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano under 1.5 in 1st half	86.3%	87.7%	86.0%	1.02×	1.14
Rayo Vallecano under 0.5 in 1st half	52.5%	54.7%	51.9%	1.05×	1.83
Rayo Vallecano over 0.5 in 1st half	47.5%	45.3%	48.1%	0.94×	2.21
Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 in 1st half	13.7%	12.3%	14.0%	0.88×	8.16

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (home no bet)	56.1%	54.2%	52.8%	1.03×	1.84
Draw (home no bet)	43.9%	45.8%	47.2%	0.97×	2.19

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano even goals	52.2%	50.3%	47.4%	1.06×	1.99
Rayo Vallecano odd goals	47.8%	49.7%	52.6%	0.95×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.5%	28.2%	32.1%	0.88×	3.55
HT 1-0	19.0%	18.9%	22.7%	0.83×	5.28
HT 0-1	17.0%	18.9%	16.2%	1.16×	5.29
HT 1-1	11.0%	11.2%	10.1%	1.10×	8.95
HT 2-0	6.1%	7.7%	6.2%	1.23×	13.02
HT 0-2	4.9%	2.5%	3.1%	0.81×	39.72
Any other HT score	4.8%	2.5%	4.5%	0.56×	39.73
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.5%	3.2%	0.77×	39.80
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.5%	1.5%	1.68×	39.82
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.5%	1.2%	2.01×	39.94

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT	24.6%	21.5%	26.5%	0.81×	4.65
Athletic Club at HT / Athletic Club at FT	18.6%	16.8%	12.9%	1.31×	5.96
Draw at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT	15.9%	16.8%	18.0%	0.93×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.4%	12.0%	14.0%	0.86×	8.34
Draw at HT / Athletic Club at FT	11.2%	12.0%	11.5%	1.04×	8.37
Athletic Club at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.6%	6.1%	1.07×	15.26
Rayo Vallecano at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.4%	5.2%	0.65×	29.31
Athletic Club at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT	3.0%	3.4%	2.7%	1.24×	29.38
Rayo Vallecano at HT / Athletic Club at FT	1.9%	3.4%	4.0%	0.85×	29.43

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score last	51.5%	53.6%	55.7%	0.96×	1.87
Athletic Club to score last	42.7%	40.3%	39.3%	1.03×	2.48
No goal scored	5.8%	6.2%	5.1%	1.21×	16.09

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.2%	93.8%	94.9%	0.99×	1.07
Rayo Vallecano to lead by 1 at any time	60.0%	59.7%	63.2%	0.95×	1.67
Athletic Club to lead by 1 at any time	49.8%	46.2%	47.1%	0.98×	2.17
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.1%	46.1%	41.6%	1.11×	2.17
Rayo Vallecano to lead by 2 at any time	28.6%	26.0%	26.5%	0.98×	3.84
Athletic Club to lead by 2 at any time	19.7%	17.7%	15.5%	1.14×	5.65
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.3%	17.7%	16.7%	1.06×	5.66
Rayo Vallecano to lead by 3 at any time	11.0%	11.3%	12.2%	0.92×	8.85
Athletic Club to lead by 3 at any time	6.3%	7.0%	4.6%	1.52×	14.23

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano most corners	46.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Athletic Club most corners	43.4%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.3%	87.9%	89.2%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.2%	78.9%	81.2%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.1%	78.8%	73.1%	1.08×	1.27
2-5 goals	70.8%	73.6%	69.5%	1.06×	1.36
1-3 goals	62.3%	62.3%	69.5%	0.90×	1.61
2-4 goals	61.7%	62.3%	61.5%	1.01×	1.61
3-6 goals	51.5%	52.3%	47.6%	1.10×	1.91
3-5 goals	47.2%	48.0%	44.0%	1.09×	2.08
2-3 goals	45.8%	48.0%	49.8%	0.96×	2.08
1-2 goals	40.0%	43.6%	45.3%	0.96×	2.29
3-4 goals	38.2%	38.9%	36.0%	1.08×	2.57
4-6 goals	29.2%	30.5%	23.4%	1.30×	3.28
4-5 goals	24.9%	24.8%	19.8%	1.25×	4.04
5-6 goals	13.3%	13.5%	11.7%	1.15×	7.42
7+ goals	2.6%	2.0%	2.2%	0.91×	49.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano never behind	44.4%	50.8%	52.9%	0.96×	1.97
Athletic Club never behind	34.2%	36.3%	36.8%	0.98×	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.1%	53.7%	0.93×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.9%	46.3%	1.08×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.9%	53.6%	0.97×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.1%	46.4%	1.04×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	51.7%	49.7%	1.04×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	48.3%	50.3%	0.96×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.2%	93.0%	94.9%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.1%	93.0%	94.1%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.0%	81.0%	86.2%	0.94×	1.23
Over 1.5 goals	77.7%	78.3%	75.2%	1.04×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	68.1%	65.5%	74.5%	0.88×	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	54.2%	53.6%	49.7%	1.08×	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	45.8%	46.4%	50.3%	0.92×	2.15
Over 3.5 goals	31.9%	34.5%	25.5%	1.35×	2.90
Under 1.5 goals	22.3%	21.7%	24.8%	0.88×	4.60
Over 4.5 goals	16.0%	19.0%	13.8%	1.37×	5.27
Over 5.5 goals	6.9%	7.0%	5.9%	1.20×	14.19
Under 0.5 goals	5.8%	7.0%	5.1%	1.38×	14.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.2%	97.2%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.4%	92.7%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.0%	80.6%	84.3%	0.96×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.8%	72.0%	66.7%	1.08×	1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.0%	55.5%	66.3%	0.84×	1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.0%	44.5%	33.7%	1.32×	2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.2%	28.0%	33.3%	0.84×	3.58
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	19.0%	19.4%	15.7%	1.24×	5.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.6%	7.3%	6.4%	1.14×	13.74
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.8%	2.8%	2.3%	1.19×	36.03

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.5%	88.1%	89.9%	0.98×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.5%	72.4%	67.9%	1.07×	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.5%	68.5%	70.8%	0.97×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.5%	31.5%	29.2%	1.08×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.5%	27.6%	32.1%	0.86×	3.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.5%	11.9%	10.1%	1.18×	8.38

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.3%	82.0%	81.8%	1.00×	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.7%	80.3%	79.7%	1.01×	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.3%	51.9%	46.3%	1.12×	1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.7%	48.1%	53.7%	0.90×	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.3%	19.7%	20.4%	0.97×	5.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.7%	18.0%	18.2%	0.99×	5.56

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club not to score in both halves	77.6%	78.1%	81.4%	0.96×	1.28
Rayo Vallecano not to score in both halves	71.6%	70.3%	73.7%	0.96×	1.42
Rayo Vallecano to score in both halves	28.4%	29.7%	26.3%	1.13×	3.37
Athletic Club to score in both halves	22.4%	21.9%	18.6%	1.18×	4.57

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.2%	57.8%	55.3%	1.04×	1.73
Only Rayo Vallecano scores	21.7%	22.8%	25.3%	0.90×	4.39
Only Athletic Club scores	15.3%	16.3%	14.6%	1.12×	6.13
Neither team scores	5.8%	6.6%	5.1%	1.30×	15.09

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.5%	21.6%	25.7%	0.84×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	21.5%	24.3%	0.89×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	16.5%	18.6%	19.8%	0.94×	5.39
Exactly 4 goals	15.9%	18.5%	11.8%	1.57×	5.39
Exactly 5 goals	9.0%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.11
6 or more goals	6.9%	7.6%	5.9%	1.30×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.8%	7.6%	5.1%	1.49×	13.16

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.3%	51.0%	46.3%	1.10×	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	32.0%	33.2%	35.6%	0.93×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	19.7%	18.5%	18.2%	1.01×	5.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club not to win both halves	92.7%	93.4%	94.6%	0.99×	1.07
Rayo Vallecano not to win both halves	88.0%	87.6%	88.1%	0.99×	1.14
Rayo Vallecano to win both halves	12.0%	12.4%	11.9%	1.05×	8.05
Athletic Club to win both halves	7.3%	6.6%	5.4%	1.23×	15.09

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to win either half	57.6%	59.5%	63.0%	0.94×	1.68
Athletic Club to win neither half	53.2%	54.0%	56.2%	0.96×	1.85
Athletic Club to win either half	46.8%	46.0%	43.8%	1.05×	2.17
Rayo Vallecano to win neither half	42.4%	40.5%	37.0%	1.10×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club not to win to nil	84.7%	83.3%	85.4%	0.98×	1.20
Rayo Vallecano not to win to nil	78.3%	77.2%	74.7%	1.03×	1.30
Rayo Vallecano to win to nil	21.7%	22.8%	25.3%	0.90×	4.39
Athletic Club to win to nil	15.3%	16.7%	14.6%	1.14×	6.00

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.8%	23.8%	25.2%	0.94×	4.21
Rayo Vallecano by 1	21.7%	23.7%	26.2%	0.91×	4.21
Athletic Club by 1	18.0%	17.0%	17.7%	0.96×	5.89
Rayo Vallecano by 2	13.1%	11.9%	11.0%	1.08×	8.43
Athletic Club by 2	9.0%	7.1%	6.8%	1.04×	14.07
Rayo Vallecano by 3+	8.8%	7.1%	10.0%	0.71×	14.07
Athletic Club by 3+	4.7%	2.8%	3.9%	0.74×	35.11