Rayo Vallecano v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 February 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 9
On target
9 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.71 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.11 – -0.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
19.2%
Draw
27.4%
Atletico Madrid win
53.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLDLWLWDDL last 10
scored 14
from 14.3 xG
conceded 21
from 18.1 xG
Atletico Madrid are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWLWWWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 19.7 xG
conceded 8
from 12.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.79–1.49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–1.56 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 55% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 3.11 xGAtletico Madrid 0.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Atletico Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Álex Baena | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 28' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Óscar Valentín | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Gerard Gumbau |
| 30' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alfonso Espino | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gerard Gumbau |
| 33' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 34' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Fran Pérez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nobel Mendy |
| 37' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nicolás González | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Fran Pérez | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andrei Ratiu |
| 41' |
Atletico Madrid |
Clement Lenglet | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolás González |
| 44' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ilias Akhomach |
| 44' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Óscar Valentín | 0.97 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nicolás González | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nahuel Molina | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nicolás González | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 61' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nicolás González | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Thiago Almada |
| 75' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Nobel Mendy | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Goal | Álvaro García |
| 77' |
Atletico Madrid |
Thiago Almada | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nahuel Molina |
| 81' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giménez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Julián Álvarez |
Players
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Óscar Valentín DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 1.82 |
| Nobel Mendy DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Alfonso Espino DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.51 | 0.99 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Gerard Gumbau MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Ilias Akhomach MR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.37 | 1.36 |
| Fran Pérez ML | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Isi Palazón MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.85 |
| Jorge De Frutos FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro García Sub | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.00 |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Randy Nteka Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai López Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás González ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.51 |
| Thiago Almada MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| Giménez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Nahuel Molina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.38 |
| Alexander Sørloth FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Clement Lenglet DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Johnny Cardoso DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Álex Baena MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Ruggeri DL | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Obed Vargas Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Robin Le Normand Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Julián Álvarez Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.37 |
| Marcos Llorente Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ademola Lookman Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |