Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 9
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.34
Goals − xG
-0.32 – -0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
41.3%
Draw
22.6%
Celta Vigo win
36.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 10
from 9.5 xG
conceded 10
from 17.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.37–1.26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.54–1.25 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 1.32 xGCelta Vigo 1.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Celta Vigo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 8' |
 Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Javier Rueda |
| 10' |
Celta Vigo |
Fran Beltrán | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Carreira |
| 15' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Camello |
| 17' |
Celta Vigo |
Manuel Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yoel Lago |
| 20' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Camello |
| 32' |
Celta Vigo |
Mihailo Ristic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Borja Iglesias |
| 43' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Camello |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 47' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.34 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Javier Rueda |
| 48' |
Celta Vigo |
Bryan Zaragoza | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 53' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pathé Ciss |
| 60' |
Celta Vigo |
Bryan Zaragoza | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mihailo Ristic |
| 63' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 64' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Álvaro García |
| 66' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 74' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alemão | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 82' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fran Beltrán |
| 95' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Lejeune |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borja Iglesias FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.96 | 0.02 | 0.66 |
| Fran Beltrán MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.85 |
| Manuel Fernández DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Yoel Lago DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Sergio Carreira DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.82 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Zaragoza FWL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Mihailo Ristic DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Hugo Sotelo MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Javier Rueda DMR | 62 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.96 | 0.66 |
| Hugo Álvarez FWR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Pablo Durán Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Óscar Mingueza Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Ilaix Moriba Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ferrán Jutglà Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Carl Starfelt Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge De Frutos MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.94 | 0.07 | 1.01 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Álvaro García ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| Pedro Díaz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.65 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Pathé Ciss DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Óscar Valentín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Isi Palazón FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Sergio Camello FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Alfonso Espino DL | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Alemão Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Pep Chavarría Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Iván Balliu Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai López Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Samu Becerra Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |