Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Rayo Vallecano

16:00 UTC

Celta Vigo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 1,304h before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano win

53.8%

model 51.2%

Draw

23.1%

model 24.0%

Celta Vigo win

23.1%

model 24.8%

542323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.3%
1-0 10.2%
2-1 9.7%
2-0 8.7%
0-1 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.4%	Under 2.5	46.6%
BTTS yes	54.9%	BTTS no	45.1%
Rayo Vallecano 1+	81.8%	Rayo Vallecano 2+	50.8%
Celta Vigo 1+	67.1%	Celta Vigo 2+	30.5%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.11. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 42%

52.7% fair odds 1.90

moderate signal · 779 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Rayo Vallecano not to win both halves

Win both halves · usually 88%

82.9% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Rayo Vallecano carry the stronger rating, 1562 Elo against 1507.
Rayo Vallecano have created 1.58 xG a match over their last five while Celta Vigo have allowed 1.76.
At home Rayo Vallecano average 1.73 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Celta Vigo were missing 0.99 expected goal involvements a match against 0.50.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Rayo Vallecano have an estimated 53.8% win probability, against 23.1% for Celta Vigo and 23.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.70 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.11 for Celta Vigo.

Why Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano carry the stronger rating, 1562 Elo against 1507. Rayo Vallecano have created 1.58 xG a match over their last five while Celta Vigo have allowed 1.76. At home Rayo Vallecano average 1.73 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Celta Vigo were missing 0.99 expected goal involvements a match against 0.50.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Celta Vigo can win

Celta Vigo have created 0.95 xG a match over their last five while Rayo Vallecano have allowed 1.60. Away from home Celta Vigo average 0.64 xG a match.

Key players

Rayo Vallecano's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Álvaro García (0.40), Jorge De Frutos (0.34), Sergio Camello (0.28). Celta Vigo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Borja Iglesias (0.32), Hugo Gonzalez (0.26), Ferrán Jutglà (0.24).

Availability

Rayo Vallecano had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.44 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Rayo Vallecano: Jorge De Frutos (suspended), Fran Pérez (suspended). 2 of Celta Vigo's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rayo Vallecano: 46% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.29 xG a match from set pieces. Celta Vigo: 56% possession, 8.4 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.21 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Rayo Vallecano are the model's most likely outcome at 53.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

DWDDWWLDLW last 10 scored 18 from 15.8 xG conceded 16 from 16.0 xG

Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDWDLLDD last 10 scored 10 from 9.5 xG conceded 10 from 17.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	512425	1.70–1.11	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	472429	1.63–1.22	1-1 11%	54%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to win	51.2%	51.7%	46.8%	1.11×	1.93
Celta Vigo to win	24.8%	22.2%	28.1%	0.79×	4.51
Draw	24.0%	22.2%	25.2%	0.88×	4.51

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano & not both score	26.9%	26.3%	25.3%	1.04×	3.80
Rayo Vallecano & both teams score	24.3%	22.6%	21.7%	1.04×	4.42
Draw & both teams score	18.0%	17.8%	20.2%	0.88×	5.63
Celta Vigo & both teams score	12.6%	12.2%	13.7%	0.89×	8.22
Celta Vigo & not both score	12.2%	12.2%	14.6%	0.83×	8.23
Draw & not both score	6.0%	7.3%	5.1%	1.43×	13.70

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano & over 1.5	41.0%	43.9%	34.1%	1.29×	2.28
Rayo Vallecano & under 3.5	33.5%	33.2%	33.0%	1.01×	3.02
Rayo Vallecano & over 2.5	32.3%	33.1%	28.0%	1.18×	3.02
Rayo Vallecano & under 2.5	18.9%	17.6%	18.9%	0.93×	5.69
Celta Vigo & over 1.5	18.1%	17.6%	21.2%	0.83×	5.69
Celta Vigo & under 3.5	18.0%	17.6%	21.7%	0.81×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	18.0%	17.6%	20.2%	0.87×	5.69
Rayo Vallecano & over 3.5	17.7%	17.6%	13.9%	1.26×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	17.3%	17.6%	20.1%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	17.3%	17.6%	20.1%	0.88×	5.69
Celta Vigo & over 2.5	14.4%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.86
Celta Vigo & under 2.5	10.4%	12.7%	11.6%	1.10×	7.87
Rayo Vallecano & under 1.5	10.2%	12.7%	12.8%	0.99×	7.87
Celta Vigo & under 1.5	6.7%	7.5%	7.1%	1.05×	13.41
Celta Vigo & over 3.5	6.8%	7.5%	6.6%	1.13×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	6.6%	7.5%	5.2%	1.43×	13.41
Draw & over 3.5	6.6%	7.5%	5.2%	1.43×	13.41
Draw & under 1.5	6.0%	7.5%	5.1%	1.46×	13.42

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (1UP)	65.8%	72.0%	63.2%	1.14×	1.39
Celta Vigo (1UP)	42.9%	43.4%	47.1%	0.92×	2.30

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (2UP)	51.2%	53.8%	48.7%	1.10×	1.86
Celta Vigo (2UP)	24.8%	21.3%	29.7%	0.72×	4.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to win 2nd half	40.0%	39.4%	39.5%	1.00×	2.54
2nd half drawn	35.3%	37.4%	33.0%	1.14×	2.67
Celta Vigo to win 2nd half	24.7%	22.4%	27.7%	0.81×	4.47

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (+2.5)	87.9%	89.0%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Rayo Vallecano (+0.5)	75.2%	78.5%	71.9%	1.09×	1.27
Celta Vigo (+1.5)	72.2%	73.1%	79.2%	0.92×	1.37
Rayo Vallecano (-0.5)	51.2%	51.6%	46.8%	1.10×	1.94
Celta Vigo (+0.5)	48.8%	48.4%	53.2%	0.91×	2.06
Rayo Vallecano (-1.5)	27.8%	26.9%	20.8%	1.30×	3.71
Celta Vigo (-0.5)	24.8%	21.5%	28.1%	0.76×	4.65
Rayo Vallecano (-2.5)	12.1%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.09

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to concede	81.8%	84.8%	80.4%	1.05×	1.18
Celta Vigo clean sheet	18.2%	15.2%	19.6%	0.78×	6.56

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to concede in 1st half	54.5%	54.8%	48.1%	1.14×	1.82
Celta Vigo clean sheet in 1st half	45.5%	45.2%	51.9%	0.87×	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo under 6.5 corners	87.6%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Celta Vigo under 5.5 corners	78.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Celta Vigo over 2.5 corners	68.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Celta Vigo under 4.5 corners	66.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Celta Vigo over 3.5 corners	50.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Celta Vigo under 3.5 corners	49.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Celta Vigo over 4.5 corners	33.9%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Celta Vigo under 2.5 corners	31.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Celta Vigo over 5.5 corners	21.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Celta Vigo over 6.5 corners	12.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo under 3.5 goals	97.3%	97.3%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Celta Vigo under 2.5 goals	89.8%	89.0%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Celta Vigo under 1.5 goals	69.5%	67.3%	68.1%	0.99×	1.49
Celta Vigo over 0.5 goals	67.1%	67.2%	69.7%	0.96×	1.49
Celta Vigo under 0.5 goals	32.9%	32.8%	30.3%	1.08×	3.05
Celta Vigo over 1.5 goals	30.5%	32.7%	31.9%	1.03×	3.06
Celta Vigo over 2.5 goals	10.2%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.12
Celta Vigo over 3.5 goals	2.7%	2.7%	2.7%	0.98×	37.43

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo under 1.5 in 1st half	92.1%	93.2%	93.3%	1.00×	1.07
Celta Vigo under 0.5 in 1st half	63.0%	63.6%	63.4%	1.00×	1.57
Celta Vigo over 0.5 in 1st half	37.0%	36.4%	36.6%	0.99×	2.75
Celta Vigo over 1.5 in 1st half	7.9%	6.8%	6.7%	1.00×	14.77

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (away no bet)	68.1%	71.7%	65.1%	1.10×	1.40
Draw (away no bet)	31.9%	28.3%	34.9%	0.81×	3.53

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo even goals	55.4%	57.9%	53.9%	1.07×	1.73
Celta Vigo odd goals	44.6%	42.1%	46.1%	0.91×	2.38

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.5%	81.8%	86.9%	0.94×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.5%	18.2%	13.1%	1.39×	5.48

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.4%	65.0%	62.4%	1.04×	1.54
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.6%	35.0%	37.6%	0.93×	2.86

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.1%	59.2%	52.3%	1.13×	1.69
Rayo Vallecano to score 2+ in a row	42.5%	45.0%	34.3%	1.31×	2.22
Celta Vigo to score 2+ in a row	21.9%	21.8%	23.6%	0.92×	4.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.8%	21.8%	18.9%	1.15×	4.60
Rayo Vallecano to score 3+ in a row	16.7%	17.8%	13.0%	1.37×	5.62
Celta Vigo to score 3+ in a row	5.4%	7.3%	6.4%	1.14×	13.73

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano corners (+3.5)	93.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Rayo Vallecano corners (+2.5)	89.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Rayo Vallecano corners (+1.5)	83.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Celta Vigo corners (+3.5)	65.9%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Celta Vigo corners (+2.5)	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Rayo Vallecano corners (-1.5)	55.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Celta Vigo corners (+1.5)	44.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Rayo Vallecano corners (-2.5)	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Rayo Vallecano corners (-3.5)	34.1%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Celta Vigo corners (-1.5)	16.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Celta Vigo corners (-2.5)	10.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Celta Vigo corners (-3.5)	6.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.57

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	40.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
9-11 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	77.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	70.1%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	70.2%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	61.2%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	59.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	51.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	40.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	38.8%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	29.9%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	29.8%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	22.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.3%	11.6%	15.1%	0.77×	8.64
1-0	10.2%	11.6%	12.8%	0.90×	8.64
2-1	9.7%	7.3%	9.7%	0.75×	13.74
2-0	8.7%	7.3%	6.2%	1.17×	13.74
0-1	6.7%	7.3%	7.1%	1.02×	13.75
1-2	6.3%	7.3%	8.3%	0.87×	13.75
0-0	6.0%	7.3%	5.1%	1.42×	13.75
2-2	5.4%	7.3%	4.4%	1.67×	13.75
3-1	5.5%	7.3%	3.6%	2.01×	13.75
3-0	4.9%	1.8%	4.6%	0.39×	55.39
0-2	3.7%	1.8%	4.6%	0.39×	55.42
3-2	3.0%	1.8%	3.2%	0.56×	55.43
Any other score	3.5%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.42
0-3	1.4%	1.8%	2.0%	0.90×	55.47
1-3	2.3%	1.8%	1.9%	0.97×	55.45
2-3	2.0%	1.8%	2.2%	0.80×	55.46
4-0	2.1%	1.8%	1.6%	1.11×	55.46
4-1	2.3%	1.8%	2.0%	0.91×	55.45
4-2	1.3%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.48
0-4	0.4%	1.8%	0.9%	2.07×	55.50
1-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.49
2-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.49
3-3	1.1%	1.8%	1.0%	1.81×	55.48
3-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.4%	4.82×	55.50
4-3	0.5%	1.8%	0.7%	2.41×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%	14.47×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano leading at HT (DNB)	66.9%	67.0%	62.3%	1.08×	1.49
Celta Vigo leading at HT (DNB)	33.1%	33.0%	37.7%	0.88×	3.03

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or Celta Vigo (12)	76.0%	77.8%	74.8%	1.04×	1.29
Rayo Vallecano or draw (1X)	75.2%	77.8%	71.9%	1.08×	1.29
Celta Vigo or draw (X2)	48.8%	48.3%	53.2%	0.91×	2.07

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or draw at HT	80.2%	81.6%	78.5%	1.04×	1.23
Celta Vigo or draw at HT	59.9%	58.3%	64.5%	0.90×	1.72
Rayo Vallecano or Celta Vigo at HT	59.9%	58.3%	56.8%	1.03×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or draw (1UP)	75.2%	84.5%	78.2%	1.08×	1.18
Celta Vigo or draw (1UP)	48.8%	55.2%	60.1%	0.92×	1.81

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or draw in 2nd half	75.3%	77.6%	72.3%	1.07×	1.29
Rayo Vallecano or Celta Vigo in 2nd half	64.7%	62.6%	67.0%	0.93×	1.60
Celta Vigo or draw in 2nd half	60.0%	60.6%	60.5%	1.00×	1.65

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.2%	59.4%	62.2%	0.95×	1.69
Neither half drawn	38.8%	40.6%	37.8%	1.07×	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (DNB)	67.4%	68.3%	62.5%	1.09×	1.46
Celta Vigo (DNB)	32.6%	31.7%	37.5%	0.84×	3.16

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score first	56.9%	62.0%	55.4%	1.12×	1.61
Celta Vigo to score first	37.1%	37.2%	39.6%	0.94×	2.69
No goal scored	6.0%	6.2%	5.1%	1.22×	16.08

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.9%	52.9%	55.3%	0.96×	1.89
Not both teams to score	45.1%	47.1%	44.7%	1.05×	2.13

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.5%	42.3%	40.3%	1.05×	2.36
Not both score & under 2.5	35.2%	37.4%	35.4%	1.06×	2.68
Both score & under 2.5	11.3%	11.7%	15.1%	0.78×	8.54
Not both score & over 2.5	9.9%	8.8%	9.5%	0.92×	11.42

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.5%	81.3%	86.2%	0.94×	1.23
Both teams to score 2+	15.5%	18.7%	13.8%	1.35×	5.36

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.3%	70.4%	71.4%	0.99×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.7%	29.6%	28.6%	1.04×	3.38

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.0%	57.6%	60.3%	0.96×	1.74
Both score 2nd half only	22.9%	24.4%	23.1%	1.06×	4.10
Both score 1st half only	14.4%	11.6%	11.2%	1.03×	8.62
Both score in both halves	5.8%	6.4%	5.6%	1.15×	15.51

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.9%	80.0%	83.3%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	20.1%	20.0%	16.7%	1.20×	4.99

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.4%	55.6%	54.8%	1.01×	1.80
A half without a goal	43.6%	44.4%	45.2%	0.98×	2.25

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	45.9%	49.8%	0.92×	2.18
4-6 goals	28.6%	27.7%	23.4%	1.18×	3.61
0-1 goals	22.9%	22.8%	24.8%	0.92×	4.39
7+ goals	2.5%	1.9%	2.2%	0.87×	51.31

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to score exactly 1	36.6%	34.6%	38.0%	0.91×	2.89
Celta Vigo to score exactly 0	32.9%	33.2%	30.3%	1.10×	3.01
Celta Vigo to score exactly 2	20.3%	23.9%	22.0%	1.09×	4.18
Celta Vigo to score 3+	10.2%	13.3%	10.0%	1.34×	7.51

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 1	31.0%	30.5%	38.4%	0.80×	3.28
Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 2	26.4%	27.1%	22.7%	1.19×	3.70
Rayo Vallecano to score 3+	24.4%	23.0%	19.7%	1.17×	4.35
Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 0	18.2%	18.5%	19.6%	0.95×	5.40

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.1%	41.7%	43.2%	0.97×	2.40
Rayo Vallecano leading at HT	40.1%	41.7%	35.5%	1.18×	2.40
Celta Vigo leading at HT	19.8%	18.4%	21.5%	0.86×	5.43

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano -1: 2	48.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Rayo Vallecano -1: 1	27.8%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Rayo Vallecano -1: X	23.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.18

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (0:1)	48.8%	48.3%	53.2%	0.91×	2.07
Rayo Vallecano (0:1)	27.8%	26.3%	20.8%	1.27×	3.80
Draw (0:1)	23.4%	24.4%	26.2%	0.93×	4.09

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (0:2)	72.2%	73.1%	79.2%	0.92×	1.37
Draw (0:2)	15.7%	16.3%	11.0%	1.48×	6.15
Rayo Vallecano (0:2)	12.1%	11.7%	10.0%	1.18×	8.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (0:3)	87.9%	88.4%	90.0%	0.98×	1.13
Draw (0:3)	7.8%	6.9%	7.1%	0.98×	14.43
Rayo Vallecano (0:3)	4.4%	2.3%	3.0%	0.78×	42.65

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (0:4)	95.6%	98.0%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.0%	1.3%	2.4%	0.53×	79.79
Rayo Vallecano (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	0.7%	1.66×	80.67

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (1:0)	75.2%	77.8%	71.9%	1.08×	1.29
Draw (1:0)	15.3%	16.3%	17.7%	0.92×	6.14
Celta Vigo (1:0)	9.5%	8.6%	10.6%	0.82×	11.58

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (2:0)	90.5%	91.6%	89.4%	1.02×	1.09
Draw (2:0)	6.7%	6.6%	6.8%	0.96×	15.18
Celta Vigo (2:0)	2.8%	2.7%	3.9%	0.70×	37.11

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.7%	49.5%	51.3%	0.96×	2.02
1st half highest scoring	30.4%	25.4%	26.3%	0.96×	3.93
Halves equal	24.8%	23.2%	22.5%	1.03×	4.30

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to concede	67.1%	66.9%	69.7%	0.96×	1.50
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet	32.9%	33.1%	30.3%	1.09×	3.02

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet in 1st half	63.0%	63.4%	63.4%	1.00×	1.58
Rayo Vallecano to concede in 1st half	37.0%	36.6%	36.6%	1.00×	2.74

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano over 2.5 corners	88.3%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Rayo Vallecano over 3.5 corners	77.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Rayo Vallecano over 4.5 corners	64.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Rayo Vallecano under 6.5 corners	61.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Rayo Vallecano over 5.5 corners	50.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Rayo Vallecano under 5.5 corners	49.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Rayo Vallecano over 6.5 corners	38.1%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Rayo Vallecano under 4.5 corners	35.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Rayo Vallecano under 3.5 corners	22.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Rayo Vallecano under 2.5 corners	11.7%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano under 3.5 goals	90.6%	92.0%	92.7%	0.99×	1.09
Rayo Vallecano over 0.5 goals	81.8%	82.4%	80.4%	1.02×	1.21
Rayo Vallecano under 2.5 goals	75.6%	76.7%	80.3%	0.95×	1.30
Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 goals	50.8%	52.7%	42.2%	1.25×	1.90
Rayo Vallecano under 1.5 goals	49.2%	47.3%	57.8%	0.82×	2.11
Rayo Vallecano over 2.5 goals	24.4%	23.3%	19.7%	1.18×	4.29
Rayo Vallecano under 0.5 goals	18.2%	17.6%	19.6%	0.90×	5.68
Rayo Vallecano over 3.5 goals	9.4%	8.0%	7.3%	1.08×	12.56

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano under 1.5 in 1st half	81.3%	80.4%	86.0%	0.93×	1.24
Rayo Vallecano over 0.5 in 1st half	54.5%	54.8%	48.1%	1.14×	1.83
Rayo Vallecano under 0.5 in 1st half	45.5%	45.2%	51.9%	0.87×	2.21
Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 in 1st half	18.7%	19.6%	14.0%	1.40×	5.10

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	49.2%	51.5%	47.2%	1.09×	1.94
Celta Vigo (home no bet)	50.8%	48.5%	52.8%	0.92×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano even goals	51.7%	50.2%	47.4%	1.06×	1.99
Rayo Vallecano odd goals	48.3%	49.8%	52.6%	0.95×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.7%	28.1%	32.1%	0.88×	3.55
HT 1-0	22.6%	22.6%	22.7%	1.00×	4.42
HT 0-1	13.2%	11.2%	16.2%	0.69×	8.92
HT 1-1	10.4%	11.2%	10.1%	1.10×	8.96
HT 2-0	8.9%	7.7%	6.2%	1.23×	12.98
Any other HT score	5.7%	7.7%	4.5%	1.71×	13.03
HT 2-1	4.1%	2.5%	3.2%	0.77×	39.77
HT 0-2	3.1%	2.5%	3.1%	0.80×	39.83
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.5%	1.5%	1.67×	39.86
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.5%	1.2%	2.01×	39.95

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT	32.7%	34.3%	26.5%	1.30×	2.92
Draw at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT	16.0%	16.8%	18.0%	0.93×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.2%	12.0%	14.0%	0.86×	8.34
Celta Vigo at HT / Celta Vigo at FT	13.0%	12.0%	12.9%	0.93×	8.35
Draw at HT / Celta Vigo at FT	9.9%	6.6%	11.5%	0.57×	15.15
Rayo Vallecano at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.6%	5.2%	1.25×	15.26
Celta Vigo at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.4%	6.1%	0.56×	29.33
Celta Vigo at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT	2.4%	3.4%	2.7%	1.24×	29.41
Rayo Vallecano at HT / Celta Vigo at FT	1.9%	3.4%	4.0%	0.85×	29.43

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score last	56.9%	56.5%	55.7%	1.01×	1.77
Celta Vigo to score last	37.1%	38.0%	39.3%	0.97×	2.63
No goal scored	6.0%	6.2%	5.1%	1.22×	16.08

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.0%	93.7%	94.9%	0.99×	1.07
Rayo Vallecano to lead by 1 at any time	65.8%	70.8%	63.2%	1.12×	1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.9%	46.2%	41.6%	1.11×	2.17
Celta Vigo to lead by 1 at any time	42.9%	42.1%	47.1%	0.89×	2.38
Rayo Vallecano to lead by 2 at any time	34.5%	32.1%	26.5%	1.21×	3.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.7%	17.7%	16.7%	1.06×	5.66
Celta Vigo to lead by 2 at any time	14.7%	11.4%	15.5%	0.73×	8.80
Rayo Vallecano to lead by 3 at any time	14.6%	11.4%	12.2%	0.93×	8.80
Celta Vigo to lead by 3 at any time	4.1%	2.6%	4.6%	0.57×	37.93

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano most corners	66.0%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Celta Vigo most corners	24.4%	25.8%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	9.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.9%	89.2%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.5%	78.9%	81.2%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.7%	73.7%	73.1%	1.01×	1.36
2-5 goals	70.5%	73.6%	69.5%	1.06×	1.36
1-3 goals	62.9%	62.3%	69.5%	0.90×	1.61
2-4 goals	61.7%	62.3%	61.5%	1.01×	1.61
3-6 goals	50.9%	52.3%	47.6%	1.10×	1.91
3-5 goals	46.8%	48.0%	44.0%	1.09×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.0%	49.8%	0.96×	2.08
1-2 goals	40.6%	43.6%	45.3%	0.96×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.9%	38.8%	36.0%	1.08×	2.57
4-6 goals	28.6%	30.5%	23.4%	1.30×	3.28
4-5 goals	24.5%	24.8%	19.8%	1.25×	4.04
5-6 goals	13.0%	13.5%	11.7%	1.15×	7.42
7+ goals	2.5%	2.0%	2.2%	0.90×	49.32

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano never behind	51.1%	61.2%	52.9%	1.16×	1.64
Celta Vigo never behind	28.2%	31.0%	36.8%	0.84×	3.22

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.1%	53.7%	0.93×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.9%	46.3%	1.08×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.1%	51.9%	53.6%	0.97×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.9%	48.1%	46.4%	1.04×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.7%	49.7%	1.04×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.8%	48.3%	50.3%	0.96×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.0%	93.0%	94.9%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.4%	93.0%	94.1%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.5%	81.0%	86.2%	0.94×	1.23
Over 1.5 goals	77.1%	78.2%	75.2%	1.04×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	68.9%	65.5%	74.5%	0.88×	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	53.4%	53.5%	49.7%	1.08×	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	46.6%	46.5%	50.3%	0.92×	2.15
Over 3.5 goals	31.1%	34.5%	25.5%	1.35×	2.90
Under 1.5 goals	22.9%	21.8%	24.8%	0.88×	4.60
Over 4.5 goals	15.5%	19.0%	13.8%	1.37×	5.27
Over 5.5 goals	6.6%	7.0%	5.9%	1.20×	14.20
Under 0.5 goals	6.0%	7.0%	5.1%	1.38×	14.21

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.4%	97.2%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.7%	92.7%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.7%	80.7%	84.3%	0.96×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.0%	72.0%	66.7%	1.08×	1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.9%	55.5%	66.3%	0.84×	1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.1%	44.5%	33.7%	1.32×	2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.0%	28.0%	33.3%	0.84×	3.57
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.3%	19.3%	15.7%	1.24×	5.17
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.3%	7.3%	6.4%	1.14×	13.75
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.6%	2.8%	2.3%	1.19×	36.05

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.9%	88.0%	89.9%	0.98×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.3%	72.4%	67.9%	1.07×	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.5%	63.1%	70.8%	0.89×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.5%	36.9%	29.2%	1.26×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.7%	27.6%	32.1%	0.86×	3.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.1%	12.0%	10.1%	1.18×	8.37

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.2%	80.3%	79.7%	1.01×	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.1%	80.3%	81.8%	0.98×	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.4%	51.8%	46.3%	1.12×	1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.6%	48.2%	53.7%	0.90×	2.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.9%	19.7%	18.2%	1.08×	5.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.8%	19.7%	20.4%	0.97×	5.08

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo not to score in both halves	82.3%	81.5%	81.4%	1.00×	1.23
Rayo Vallecano not to score in both halves	67.3%	67.0%	73.7%	0.91×	1.49
Rayo Vallecano to score in both halves	32.7%	33.0%	26.3%	1.25×	3.03
Celta Vigo to score in both halves	17.7%	18.5%	18.6%	0.99×	5.41

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.9%	54.8%	55.3%	0.99×	1.82
Only Rayo Vallecano scores	26.9%	25.7%	25.3%	1.01×	3.90
Only Celta Vigo scores	12.2%	10.8%	14.6%	0.74×	9.26
Neither team scores	6.0%	6.6%	5.1%	1.30×	15.08

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.7%	21.6%	25.7%	0.84×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	21.5%	24.3%	0.89×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	16.9%	18.6%	19.8%	0.94×	5.39
Exactly 4 goals	15.7%	18.5%	11.8%	1.57×	5.39
Exactly 5 goals	8.8%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.12
6 or more goals	6.6%	7.6%	5.9%	1.30×	13.15
Exactly 0 goals	6.0%	7.6%	5.1%	1.49×	13.15

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.4%	50.8%	46.3%	1.10×	1.97
1 goal in 2nd half	32.7%	33.2%	35.6%	0.93×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	20.9%	18.5%	18.2%	1.01×	5.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo not to win both halves	95.1%	96.6%	94.6%	1.02×	1.04
Rayo Vallecano not to win both halves	84.0%	82.9%	88.1%	0.94×	1.21
Rayo Vallecano to win both halves	16.0%	17.1%	11.9%	1.44×	5.87
Celta Vigo to win both halves	4.9%	3.4%	5.4%	0.63×	29.61

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to win either half	64.1%	63.7%	63.0%	1.01×	1.57
Celta Vigo to win neither half	60.4%	63.5%	56.2%	1.13×	1.57
Celta Vigo to win either half	39.6%	36.5%	43.8%	0.83×	2.74
Rayo Vallecano to win neither half	35.9%	36.3%	37.0%	0.98×	2.75

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo not to win to nil	87.8%	88.3%	85.4%	1.03×	1.13
Rayo Vallecano not to win to nil	73.1%	74.3%	74.7%	1.00×	1.35
Rayo Vallecano to win to nil	26.9%	25.7%	25.3%	1.01×	3.90
Celta Vigo to win to nil	12.2%	11.7%	14.6%	0.80×	8.54

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.0%	23.8%	25.2%	0.94×	4.21
Rayo Vallecano by 1	23.4%	23.8%	26.2%	0.91×	4.21
Rayo Vallecano by 2	15.7%	17.0%	11.0%	1.55×	5.90
Celta Vigo by 1	15.3%	17.0%	17.7%	0.96×	5.90
Rayo Vallecano by 3+	12.1%	11.9%	10.0%	1.19×	8.44
Celta Vigo by 2	6.7%	7.1%	6.8%	1.03×	14.12
Celta Vigo by 3+	2.8%	2.8%	3.9%	0.73×	35.37