Rayo Vallecano v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Rayo Vallecano

16:00 UTC

Elche

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 53h before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano win

51.0%

model 50.5%

Draw

22.2%

model 22.9%

Elche win

26.7%

model 26.6%

512227

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.5%
2-1 9.6%
1-0 8.3%
2-0 7.6%
1-2 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.7%	Under 2.5	40.3%
BTTS yes	60.2%	BTTS no	39.8%
Rayo Vallecano 1+	83.9%	Rayo Vallecano 2+	54.4%
Elche 1+	71.8%	Elche 2+	36.1%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.27. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

100/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

100%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 48%

58.5% fair odds 1.71

strong signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 90%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Rayo Vallecano carry the stronger rating, 1564 Elo against 1500.
Rayo Vallecano have created 1.50 xG a match over their last five while Elche have allowed 1.91.
At home Rayo Vallecano average 1.46 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Elche were missing 0.88 expected goal involvements a match against 0.53.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Rayo Vallecano have an estimated 51.0% win probability, against 26.7% for Elche and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.82 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.27 for Elche.

Why Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano carry the stronger rating, 1564 Elo against 1500. Rayo Vallecano have created 1.50 xG a match over their last five while Elche have allowed 1.91. At home Rayo Vallecano average 1.46 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Elche were missing 0.88 expected goal involvements a match against 0.53.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Elche can win

Elche have created 1.13 xG a match over their last five while Rayo Vallecano have allowed 1.63. Away from home Elche average 0.99 xG a match.

Key players

Rayo Vallecano's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Álvaro García (0.39), Jorge De Frutos (0.34), Sergio Camello (0.27). Elche's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Alvaro Rodríguez (0.42), Fernando Niño (0.41), André Silva (0.36).

Availability

27% of Rayo Vallecano's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Rayo Vallecano: Jorge De Frutos (suspended), Fran Pérez (suspended). 2 of Elche's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Elche's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Rayo Vallecano: 56% possession, 18.0 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Elche: 46% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces. Rayo Vallecano's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Rayo Vallecano are the model's most likely outcome at 51.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 100/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Rayo Vallecano have scored 16 from 15.0 expected and conceded 18 from 16.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWLDLWLWDD last 10 scored 16 from 15.0 xG conceded 18 from 16.3 xG

Elche have scored 12 from 11.3 expected and conceded 18 from 19.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DDLLLDLWDD last 10 scored 12 from 11.3 xG conceded 18 from 19.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	502327	1.82–1.27	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	502327	1.78–1.23	1-1 11%	58%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to win	59.7%	54.1%	46.4%	1.17×	1.85
Draw	20.3%	24.4%	25.4%	0.96×	4.10
Elche to win	20.0%	19.4%	28.4%	0.68×	5.15

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano & both teams score	32.4%	29.6%	21.6%	1.37×	3.38
Rayo Vallecano & not both score	27.3%	25.2%	24.8%	1.01×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.7%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.57
Elche & both teams score	12.0%	13.3%	14.1%	0.94×	7.54
Elche & not both score	8.0%	8.3%	14.4%	0.58×	12.01
Draw & not both score	3.6%	4.9%	5.3%	0.92×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano & over 1.5	52.0%	48.9%	33.9%	1.44×	2.05
Rayo Vallecano & over 2.5	43.7%	40.3%	28.0%	1.44×	2.48
Rayo Vallecano & under 3.5	31.8%	30.8%	32.4%	0.95×	3.25
Rayo Vallecano & over 3.5	28.0%	26.1%	14.1%	1.85×	3.84
Draw & over 1.5	16.7%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Rayo Vallecano & under 2.5	16.0%	18.0%	18.5%	0.97×	5.56
Elche & over 1.5	15.8%	18.0%	21.4%	0.84×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	12.6%	12.8%	20.4%	0.63×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.6%	12.8%	20.4%	0.63×	7.79
Elche & over 2.5	13.3%	12.8%	17.1%	0.75×	7.79
Elche & under 3.5	13.0%	12.8%	21.3%	0.60×	7.79
Rayo Vallecano & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.6%	7.9%	5.2%	1.53×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.6%	7.9%	5.2%	1.53×	12.63
Elche & under 2.5	6.7%	7.9%	11.4%	0.69×	12.63
Elche & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.63
Elche & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	7.1%	0.68×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.6%	4.8%	5.3%	0.91×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (1UP)	73.8%	75.6%	62.7%	1.21×	1.32
Elche (1UP)	40.2%	38.3%	47.1%	0.81×	2.61

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (2UP)	59.7%	55.4%	48.1%	1.15×	1.81
Elche (2UP)	20.0%	17.5%	30.0%	0.58×	5.71

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to win 2nd half	47.4%	45.9%	39.5%	1.16×	2.18
2nd half drawn	30.6%	34.3%	33.0%	1.04×	2.92
Elche to win 2nd half	21.9%	24.2%	27.6%	0.88×	4.13

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.3%	84.5%	84.2%	1.00×	1.18
Elche over 0.5 in 2nd half	50.5%	52.5%	52.1%	1.01×	1.90
Elche under 0.5 in 2nd half	49.5%	47.5%	47.9%	0.99×	2.11
Elche over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.7%	15.5%	15.8%	0.98×	6.43

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano over 0.5 in 2nd half	69.4%	70.8%	59.1%	1.20×	1.41
Rayo Vallecano under 1.5 in 2nd half	66.8%	70.7%	79.6%	0.89×	1.42
Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 in 2nd half	33.2%	29.3%	20.4%	1.44×	3.41
Rayo Vallecano under 0.5 in 2nd half	30.6%	29.2%	40.9%	0.71×	3.43

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (+2.5)	80.8%	82.5%	89.8%	0.92×	1.21
Rayo Vallecano (+0.5)	80.0%	82.5%	71.6%	1.15×	1.21
Elche (+1.5)	62.9%	62.9%	79.3%	0.79×	1.59
Rayo Vallecano (-0.5)	59.7%	57.1%	46.4%	1.23×	1.75
Elche (+0.5)	40.3%	42.9%	53.6%	0.80×	2.33
Rayo Vallecano (-1.5)	37.1%	37.1%	20.7%	1.79×	2.70
Elche (-0.5)	20.0%	17.5%	28.4%	0.62×	5.72
Rayo Vallecano (-2.5)	19.2%	17.5%	10.2%	1.71×	5.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede	88.4%	86.3%	80.5%	1.07×	1.16
Elche clean sheet	11.6%	13.7%	19.5%	0.70×	7.31

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede in 1st half	62.1%	65.1%	47.8%	1.36×	1.54
Elche clean sheet in 1st half	37.9%	34.9%	52.2%	0.67×	2.87

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to concede in 2nd half	69.4%	66.1%	59.1%	1.12×	1.51
Elche clean sheet in 2nd half	30.6%	33.9%	40.9%	0.83×	2.95

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 6.5 corners	80.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Elche over 2.5 corners	76.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Elche under 5.5 corners	69.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Elche over 3.5 corners	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Elche under 4.5 corners	55.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Elche over 4.5 corners	44.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Elche under 3.5 corners	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Elche over 5.5 corners	30.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Elche under 2.5 corners	23.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Elche over 6.5 corners	19.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 3.5 goals	96.8%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Elche under 2.5 goals	88.5%	87.8%	89.4%	0.98×	1.14
Elche over 0.5 goals	69.1%	68.0%	70.0%	0.97×	1.47
Elche under 1.5 goals	67.2%	68.0%	67.9%	1.00×	1.47
Elche over 1.5 goals	32.8%	32.0%	32.1%	1.00×	3.12
Elche under 0.5 goals	30.9%	32.0%	30.0%	1.07×	3.13
Elche over 2.5 goals	11.5%	12.2%	10.6%	1.15×	8.21
Elche over 3.5 goals	3.2%	2.5%	2.9%	0.85×	39.87

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche under 1.5 in 1st half	91.8%	93.9%	92.8%	1.01×	1.07
Elche under 0.5 in 1st half	62.4%	63.6%	63.2%	1.01×	1.57
Elche over 0.5 in 1st half	37.6%	36.4%	36.8%	0.99×	2.75
Elche over 1.5 in 1st half	8.2%	6.1%	7.2%	0.85×	16.32

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche scores equally in both	42.0%	43.4%	41.7%	1.04×	2.30
Elche scores more in 2nd half	36.4%	37.3%	37.6%	0.99×	2.68
Elche scores more in 1st half	21.6%	22.0%	20.8%	1.06×	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (away no bet)	74.7%	68.5%	64.6%	1.06×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	25.3%	31.5%	35.4%	0.89×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche even goals	54.8%	52.6%	53.3%	0.99×	1.90
Elche odd goals	45.2%	47.4%	46.7%	1.01×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	76.2%	81.2%	85.8%	0.95×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	23.8%	18.8%	14.2%	1.33×	5.33

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.8%	67.5%	62.5%	1.08×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.2%	32.5%	37.5%	0.87×	3.08

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.7%	62.4%	52.5%	1.19×	1.60
Rayo Vallecano to score 2+ in a row	54.4%	51.1%	34.6%	1.48×	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.4%	29.1%	19.2%	1.52×	3.43
Rayo Vallecano to score 3+ in a row	25.6%	25.2%	13.2%	1.90×	3.98
Elche to score 2+ in a row	22.1%	19.6%	23.8%	0.82×	5.10
Elche to score 3+ in a row	5.3%	5.5%	6.5%	0.85×	18.12

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano corners (+3.5)	89.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Rayo Vallecano corners (+2.5)	83.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Rayo Vallecano corners (+1.5)	76.5%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Elche corners (+3.5)	72.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Elche corners (+2.5)	63.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Elche corners (+1.5)	53.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Rayo Vallecano corners (-1.5)	46.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Rayo Vallecano corners (-2.5)	36.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Rayo Vallecano corners (-3.5)	27.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Elche corners (-1.5)	23.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Elche corners (-2.5)	16.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Elche corners (-3.5)	10.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	36.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	34.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	73.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	74.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	64.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	36.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	34.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	26.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	25.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.1%	7.4%	15.2%	0.49×	13.50
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.50
1-0	7.7%	7.4%	12.6%	0.59×	13.50
2-0	8.3%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.50
3-1	7.0%	7.4%	3.5%	2.10×	13.51
Any other score	7.4%	7.4%	3.4%	2.17×	13.50
1-2	5.3%	7.4%	8.1%	0.91×	13.51
2-2	5.7%	7.4%	4.2%	1.75×	13.51
3-0	6.0%	7.4%	4.5%	1.66×	13.51
0-0	3.6%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.30
0-1	4.2%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
0-2	2.5%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.31
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.08×	58.32
1-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.64×	58.32
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.31
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.6%	2.92×	58.32
3-2	4.1%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.30
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.62×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.86×	58.32
4-0	3.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.30
4-1	3.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.30
4-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.3%	1.33×	58.31
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.43×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	14.58×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (2nd half DNB)	68.4%	67.5%	58.9%	1.15×	1.48
Elche (2nd half DNB)	31.6%	32.5%	41.1%	0.79×	3.07

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano leading at HT (DNB)	72.8%	73.9%	61.6%	1.20×	1.35
Elche leading at HT (DNB)	27.2%	26.1%	38.4%	0.68×	3.84

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or draw (1X)	80.0%	80.6%	71.6%	1.12×	1.24
Rayo Vallecano or Elche (12)	79.7%	75.6%	74.6%	1.01×	1.32
Elche or draw (X2)	40.3%	45.9%	53.6%	0.86×	2.18

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or draw at HT	82.5%	84.3%	78.2%	1.08×	1.19
Rayo Vallecano or Elche at HT	64.2%	61.6%	56.7%	1.09×	1.62
Elche or draw at HT	53.2%	47.9%	65.0%	0.74×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or draw (1UP)	80.0%	88.3%	77.9%	1.13×	1.13
Elche or draw (1UP)	40.3%	52.3%	60.3%	0.87×	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano or draw in 2nd half	78.1%	75.8%	72.4%	1.05×	1.32
Rayo Vallecano or Elche in 2nd half	69.4%	65.7%	67.0%	0.98×	1.52
Elche or draw in 2nd half	52.6%	54.1%	60.5%	0.89×	1.85

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	55.4%	58.4%	62.1%	0.94×	1.71
Neither half drawn	44.6%	41.6%	37.9%	1.10×	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (DNB)	74.9%	71.6%	62.0%	1.15×	1.40
Elche (DNB)	25.1%	28.4%	38.0%	0.75×	3.52

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score first	62.4%	64.6%	55.2%	1.17×	1.55
Elche to score first	34.0%	27.6%	39.6%	0.70×	3.63
No goal scored	3.6%	4.3%	5.3%	0.81×	23.36

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.1%	56.6%	55.8%	1.02×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.9%	43.4%	44.2%	0.98×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	52.0%	47.3%	40.7%	1.16×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	26.3%	33.3%	34.9%	0.95×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	12.6%	12.4%	9.4%	1.31×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.1%	8.3%	15.2%	0.55×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.2%	79.7%	85.8%	0.93×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	20.8%	20.3%	14.2%	1.43×	4.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.9%	65.9%	70.8%	0.93×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.1%	34.1%	29.2%	1.17×	2.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.8%	53.1%	59.7%	0.89×	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	26.9%	27.4%	23.7%	1.16×	3.65
Both score 1st half only	15.2%	14.9%	11.2%	1.33×	6.70
Both score in both halves	8.2%	6.8%	5.7%	1.21×	14.65

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.7%	81.2%	83.3%	0.97×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.3%	18.8%	16.7%	1.12×	5.31

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	64.8%	59.9%	55.1%	1.09×	1.67
A half without a goal	35.2%	40.1%	44.9%	0.89×	2.49

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.9%	42.1%	49.2%	0.86×	2.37
4-6 goals	37.4%	35.1%	23.8%	1.48×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.5%	20.2%	24.7%	0.82×	4.95
7+ goals	5.3%	7.6%	2.6%	2.93×	13.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche to score exactly 1	36.3%	35.9%	38.0%	0.95×	2.78
Elche to score exactly 0	30.9%	33.8%	30.0%	1.13×	2.96
Elche to score exactly 2	21.3%	22.3%	21.6%	1.03×	4.49
Elche to score 3+	11.5%	12.9%	10.6%	1.22×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score 3+	36.5%	35.6%	19.8%	1.80×	2.81
Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	22.7%	1.17×	3.77
Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 1	25.0%	23.3%	38.2%	0.61×	4.29
Rayo Vallecano to score exactly 0	11.6%	14.3%	19.5%	0.73×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano leading at HT	46.8%	52.1%	35.0%	1.49×	1.92
Draw at HT	35.8%	38.4%	43.3%	0.89×	2.61
Elche leading at HT	17.5%	15.7%	21.8%	0.72×	6.36

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano -1: 2	40.3%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Rayo Vallecano -1: 1	37.1%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Rayo Vallecano -1: X	22.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (0:1)	40.3%	42.6%	53.6%	0.79×	2.35
Rayo Vallecano (0:1)	37.1%	37.3%	20.7%	1.80×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	22.6%	24.2%	25.8%	0.94×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (0:2)	62.9%	67.1%	79.3%	0.85×	1.49
Rayo Vallecano (0:2)	19.2%	15.3%	10.2%	1.50×	6.53
Draw (0:2)	18.0%	15.3%	10.6%	1.44×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (0:3)	80.8%	85.3%	89.8%	0.95×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	10.9%	9.9%	7.2%	1.38×	10.08
Rayo Vallecano (0:3)	8.3%	5.8%	3.2%	1.83×	17.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche (0:4)	91.7%	94.5%	96.8%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.2%	4.6%	2.4%	1.95×	21.81
Rayo Vallecano (0:4)	3.1%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	81.76

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (1:0)	80.0%	81.3%	71.6%	1.13×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	12.3%	12.7%	17.5%	0.72×	7.87
Elche (1:0)	7.7%	6.9%	10.9%	0.63×	14.49

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano (2:0)	92.3%	94.0%	89.1%	1.06×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.3%	6.4%	7.1%	0.90×	15.71
Elche (2:0)	2.3%	2.3%	4.0%	0.57×	43.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.1%	48.8%	51.3%	0.95×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	29.5%	26.2%	25.8%	1.02×	3.81
Halves equal	22.4%	24.3%	23.0%	1.06×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to concede	69.1%	66.7%	70.0%	0.95×	1.50
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet	30.9%	33.3%	30.0%	1.11×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet in 1st half	62.4%	63.5%	63.2%	1.00×	1.58
Rayo Vallecano to concede in 1st half	37.6%	36.5%	36.8%	0.99×	2.74

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to concede in 2nd half	50.5%	52.6%	52.1%	1.01×	1.90
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet in 2nd half	49.5%	47.4%	47.9%	0.99×	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano over 2.5 corners	87.1%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Rayo Vallecano over 3.5 corners	75.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Rayo Vallecano under 6.5 corners	64.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Rayo Vallecano over 4.5 corners	62.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Rayo Vallecano under 5.5 corners	51.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Rayo Vallecano over 5.5 corners	48.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Rayo Vallecano under 4.5 corners	38.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Rayo Vallecano over 6.5 corners	35.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Rayo Vallecano under 3.5 corners	24.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Rayo Vallecano under 2.5 corners	12.9%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano over 0.5 goals	88.4%	87.3%	80.5%	1.08×	1.15
Rayo Vallecano under 3.5 goals	82.8%	82.2%	92.4%	0.89×	1.22
Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 goals	63.4%	63.6%	42.4%	1.50×	1.57
Rayo Vallecano under 2.5 goals	63.5%	63.6%	80.2%	0.79×	1.57
Rayo Vallecano under 1.5 goals	36.6%	36.4%	57.6%	0.63×	2.75
Rayo Vallecano over 2.5 goals	36.5%	36.4%	19.8%	1.84×	2.75
Rayo Vallecano over 3.5 goals	17.2%	17.8%	7.6%	2.33×	5.62
Rayo Vallecano under 0.5 goals	11.6%	12.7%	19.5%	0.65×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano under 1.5 in 1st half	74.6%	79.4%	85.8%	0.92×	1.26
Rayo Vallecano over 0.5 in 1st half	62.1%	64.9%	47.8%	1.36×	1.54
Rayo Vallecano under 0.5 in 1st half	37.9%	35.1%	52.2%	0.67×	2.85
Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 in 1st half	25.4%	20.6%	14.2%	1.46×	4.85

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano scores more in 2nd half	40.8%	42.0%	40.3%	1.04×	2.38
Rayo Vallecano scores more in 1st half	30.0%	27.9%	27.5%	1.01×	3.59
Rayo Vallecano scores equally in both	29.3%	27.9%	32.3%	0.86×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.3%	51.3%	47.3%	1.09×	1.95
Elche (home no bet)	49.7%	48.7%	52.7%	0.92×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano even goals	50.7%	50.7%	47.5%	1.07×	1.97
Rayo Vallecano odd goals	49.3%	49.3%	52.5%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.6%	24.4%	32.2%	0.76×	4.09
HT 1-0	23.0%	24.4%	22.1%	1.11×	4.09
HT 2-0	11.1%	11.0%	6.6%	1.67×	9.09
HT 0-1	11.1%	11.0%	16.0%	0.69×	9.09
HT 1-1	10.8%	11.0%	10.1%	1.08×	9.09
Any other HT score	8.6%	6.9%	4.5%	1.54×	14.47
HT 2-1	5.3%	6.9%	3.1%	2.25×	14.52
HT 0-2	2.6%	2.4%	3.5%	0.67×	42.11
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.4%	1.7%	1.44×	42.11
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.4%	1.2%	2.01×	42.20

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT	39.6%	42.0%	26.3%	1.60×	2.38
Draw at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT	17.0%	16.7%	17.8%	0.94×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.0%	12.6%	14.2%	0.89×	7.92
Elche at HT / Elche at FT	10.2%	12.6%	13.2%	0.96×	7.92
Draw at HT / Elche at FT	7.8%	6.0%	11.6%	0.52×	16.61
Rayo Vallecano at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.68
Elche at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	6.3%	0.56×	28.61
Elche at HT / Rayo Vallecano at FT	3.1%	3.5%	2.6%	1.35×	28.65
Rayo Vallecano at HT / Elche at FT	1.9%	3.5%	3.8%	0.92×	28.69

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to score last	62.4%	62.2%	54.8%	1.13×	1.61
Elche to score last	34.0%	32.8%	40.0%	0.82×	3.05
No goal scored	3.6%	4.3%	5.3%	0.81×	23.36

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.4%	95.7%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Rayo Vallecano to lead by 1 at any time	73.8%	74.3%	62.7%	1.18×	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	58.0%	54.9%	42.0%	1.31×	1.82
Rayo Vallecano to lead by 2 at any time	45.0%	44.5%	26.5%	1.68×	2.25
Elche to lead by 1 at any time	40.2%	39.1%	47.1%	0.83×	2.56
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	26.5%	25.5%	17.2%	1.48×	3.92
Rayo Vallecano to lead by 3 at any time	22.8%	19.7%	12.5%	1.57×	5.09
Elche to lead by 2 at any time	13.4%	10.5%	15.8%	0.66×	9.54
Elche to lead by 3 at any time	3.7%	1.6%	4.8%	0.34×	61.12

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano most corners	57.2%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Elche most corners	32.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.4%	83.4%	88.6%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.2%	78.7%	72.8%	1.08×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	69.2%	1.05×	1.38
1-4 goals	72.1%	72.4%	80.4%	0.90×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.2%	63.3%	60.9%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.4%	59.1%	47.5%	1.24×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.8%	53.2%	68.6%	0.78×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.6%	53.2%	43.9%	1.21×	1.88
2-3 goals	41.9%	43.6%	49.2%	0.89×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	35.6%	1.22×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.4%	39.2%	23.8%	1.65×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.8%	35.2%	44.8%	0.79×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.6%	35.2%	20.1%	1.75×	2.84
5-6 goals	19.0%	18.8%	12.0%	1.57×	5.31
7+ goals	5.3%	8.9%	2.6%	3.43×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano never behind	56.2%	62.4%	52.9%	1.18×	1.60
Elche never behind	22.6%	24.6%	37.3%	0.66×	4.06

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	53.6%	0.95×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	46.4%	1.06×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.8%	51.6%	54.4%	0.95×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.2%	48.4%	45.6%	1.06×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.1%	51.9%	49.4%	1.05×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.9%	48.1%	50.6%	0.95×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.4%	95.4%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.9%	87.6%	93.8%	0.93×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.5%	82.3%	75.3%	1.09×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	75.7%	77.3%	85.5%	0.90×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	64.7%	61.7%	50.0%	1.24×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	57.4%	58.6%	73.8%	0.79×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	42.6%	41.4%	26.2%	1.58×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	35.3%	38.3%	50.0%	0.77×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	24.3%	22.7%	14.5%	1.57×	4.40
Under 1.5 goals	15.5%	17.7%	24.7%	0.72×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	12.1%	12.4%	6.2%	1.99×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	3.6%	4.6%	5.3%	0.86×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.3%	92.4%	97.3%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.3%	86.7%	93.2%	0.93×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.7%	81.1%	66.9%	1.21×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.3%	72.4%	83.6%	0.87×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.7%	51.9%	34.4%	1.51×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.3%	48.1%	65.6%	0.73×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	29.7%	27.6%	16.4%	1.68×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.3%	18.9%	33.1%	0.57×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.7%	13.3%	6.8%	1.95×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.7%	7.6%	2.7%	2.83×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.3%	85.8%	90.0%	0.95×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.4%	78.1%	67.8%	1.15×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	57.7%	63.6%	70.0%	0.91×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.3%	36.4%	30.0%	1.21×	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.6%	21.9%	32.2%	0.68×	4.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.7%	14.2%	10.0%	1.42×	7.04

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.9%	83.3%	82.0%	1.02×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	70.7%	77.3%	79.0%	0.98×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	56.3%	54.9%	46.7%	1.17×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	43.7%	45.1%	53.3%	0.85×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	29.3%	22.7%	21.0%	1.08×	4.40
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.1%	16.7%	18.0%	0.93×	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to score in both halves	81.0%	84.3%	81.0%	1.04×	1.19
Rayo Vallecano not to score in both halves	56.9%	58.0%	73.6%	0.79×	1.72
Rayo Vallecano to score in both halves	43.1%	42.0%	26.4%	1.59×	2.38
Elche to score in both halves	19.0%	15.7%	19.0%	0.83×	6.36

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.1%	60.3%	55.8%	1.08×	1.66
Only Rayo Vallecano scores	27.3%	26.0%	24.8%	1.05×	3.84
Only Elche scores	8.0%	7.1%	14.4%	0.50×	14.03
Neither team scores	3.6%	4.6%	5.3%	0.87×	21.69

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.9%	0.94×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.8%	17.5%	25.4%	0.69×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.3%	17.5%	11.9%	1.47×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	11.9%	12.1%	19.5%	0.62×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	12.2%	12.1%	8.4%	1.45×	8.25
6 or more goals	12.1%	12.1%	6.2%	1.95×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.6%	4.5%	5.3%	0.84×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.1%	35.9%	38.0%	0.95×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	24.6%	21.5%	20.0%	1.07×	4.64
No goals in 1st half	23.6%	21.5%	32.2%	0.67×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	17.7%	15.6%	10.0%	1.56×	6.39

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	56.3%	54.1%	46.7%	1.16×	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	28.6%	29.3%	35.4%	0.83×	3.41
No goals in 2nd half	15.1%	16.4%	18.0%	0.91×	6.11

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to win both halves	96.2%	97.2%	94.7%	1.03×	1.03
Rayo Vallecano not to win both halves	77.8%	75.5%	88.0%	0.86×	1.32
Rayo Vallecano to win both halves	22.2%	24.5%	12.0%	2.04×	4.08
Elche to win both halves	3.8%	2.8%	5.3%	0.54×	35.20

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano to win either half	72.0%	73.0%	62.5%	1.17×	1.37
Elche to win neither half	64.4%	65.2%	55.9%	1.17×	1.54
Elche to win either half	35.6%	34.8%	44.1%	0.79×	2.87
Rayo Vallecano to win neither half	28.0%	27.0%	37.5%	0.72×	3.70

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elche not to win to nil	92.0%	92.1%	85.6%	1.08×	1.09
Rayo Vallecano not to win to nil	72.7%	75.3%	75.2%	1.00×	1.33
Rayo Vallecano to win to nil	27.3%	24.7%	24.8%	0.99×	4.06
Elche to win to nil	8.0%	7.9%	14.4%	0.55×	12.64

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rayo Vallecano by 1	22.6%	24.1%	25.8%	0.94×	4.15
Draw	20.3%	24.1%	25.4%	0.95×	4.15
Rayo Vallecano by 3+	19.2%	17.1%	10.2%	1.67×	5.86
Rayo Vallecano by 2	18.0%	17.1%	10.6%	1.61×	5.87
Elche by 1	12.3%	11.8%	17.5%	0.67×	8.51
Elche by 2	5.3%	7.2%	7.1%	1.02×	13.92
Elche by 3+	2.3%	2.7%	4.0%	0.68×	36.83