Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 4 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 15
On target
5 – 7
Shots in box
9 – 11
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.23
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 1.29
Goals − xG
-0.50 – +0.51
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
50.8%
Draw
26.7%
Espanyol win
22.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 0.50 xGEspanyol 3.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Lejeune |
| 6' |
 Espanyol |
Antoniu Roca | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 11' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Goal | Edu Expósito |
| 15' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Javi Puado |
| 17' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antoniu Roca |
| 29' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Randy Nteka | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 29' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 33' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 34' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Espanyol |
Pol Lozano | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 36' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 39' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 40' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 44' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Unai López |
| 47' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álvaro García |
| 48' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Unai López |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 52' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álvaro García |
| 59' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 61' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pathé Ciss |
| 71' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 73' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alfonso Espino | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 82' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 86' |
Espanyol |
Marash Kumbulla | 0.37 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Álvaro Aguado |
| 89' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Álvaro Aguado |
| 92' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Adrián Embarba | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
Players
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro García AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.34 |
| Jorge De Frutos AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Pedro Díaz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pathé Ciss DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Unai López DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Randy Nteka FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Aridane Hernández DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Isi Palazón Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Alfonso Espino Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Adrián Embarba Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Raúl de Tomás Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Óscar Trejo Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 1.36 |
| Marash Kumbulla DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Urko Gonzalez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.83 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javi Puado AML | 85 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1.28 | 0.39 | 1.03 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Edu Expósito AMC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.78 | 1.19 |
| Pol Lozano DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoniu Roca AMR | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.12 | 0.52 |
| Fernando Calero Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Alex Kral Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pere Milla Sub | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Aguado Sub | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.32 |