Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 23 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 15
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 1.23
Goals − xG
-1.11 – -1.69
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
50.3%
Draw
26.9%
Espanyol win
22.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWDDWWLDL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 14
from 17.1 xG
Espanyol are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLWWDWLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 11
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.44–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.85–1.03 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 2.11 xGEspanyol 1.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 14' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 19' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 26' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Óscar Valentín |
| 29' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Óscar Valentín |
| 31' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alemão | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 36' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alemão | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 44' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pathé Ciss | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 54' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 59' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pathé Ciss | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 62' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 65' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pere Milla |
| 67' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 69' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alemão | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 69' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.74 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 76' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 78' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cyril Ngonge |
| 83' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 86' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ilias Akhomach |
| 89' |
Espanyol |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Clemens Riedel |
| 90' |
Espanyol |
Ramón Terrats | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 97' |
Espanyol |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isi Palazón AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| Pathé Ciss DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.78 | 1.37 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Jorge De Frutos AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Daniel Cárdenas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Pedro Díaz DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Alemão FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Óscar Valentín DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Alfonso Espino AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Ilias Akhomach Sub | 29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.60 |
| Gerard Gumbau Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai López Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergio Camello Sub | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Abdul Mumin Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kike García FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Pere Milla ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Edu Expósito MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrhys Dolan MR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Pol Lozano MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charles Pickel Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ramón Terrats Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Cyril Ngonge Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.34 | 0.02 |
| Clemens Riedel Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Miguel Ángel Rubio Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |