Rayo Vallecano v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 2 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 12
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 6
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.67 – 0.23
Goals − xG
-0.22 – -0.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
30.4%
Draw
29.4%
Getafe win
40.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLWLWL last 10
scored 6
from 8.1 xG
conceded 10
from 12.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.95–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.40–1.04 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 1.22 xGGetafe 0.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.51 | From Corner | — | Goal | Isi Palazón |
| 12' |
 Getafe |
Omar Alderete | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bertug Yildirim |
| 18' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Adrián Embarba | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 23' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mauro Arambarri |
| 25' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.13 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Getafe |
Bertug Yildirim | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 43' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 45' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Borja Mayoral |
| 47' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Unai López |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 51' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Aridane Hernández | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrián Embarba |
| 51' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Álvaro García |
| 57' |
Getafe |
Omar Alderete | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 59' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Unai López |
| 60' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Aridane Hernández | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrián Embarba |
| 61' |
Getafe |
Borja Mayoral | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bertug Yildirim |
| 64' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Adrián Embarba | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 68' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Getafe |
Borja Mayoral | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
| 84' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Iván Balliu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Óscar Valentín |
| 85' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 91' |
Getafe |
Omar Alderete | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramón Terrats MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Borja Mayoral FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| Juan Iglesias DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| Juan Berrocal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djené Dakonam DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Bertug Yildirim FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| Juan Bernat ML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Carles Pérez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Peter Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nyom Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Aridane Hernández DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Isi Palazón AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.72 | 0.40 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Iván Balliu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Daniel Cárdenas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Álvaro García AML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.49 |
| Unai López DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.40 |
| Adrián Embarba FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| Jorge De Frutos AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Pathé Ciss DMC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Óscar Valentín Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergi Guardiola Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gerard Gumbau Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfonso Espino Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |