Rayo Vallecano v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 2 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 12
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.39
Goals − xG
+0.34 – +0.34
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
45.3%
Draw
28.6%
Getafe win
26.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLDLWLWDDL last 10
scored 14
from 14.3 xG
conceded 21
from 18.1 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLDDLWLDL last 10
scored 5
from 7.7 xG
conceded 15
from 16.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–0.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.25–0.73 | 1-0 17% | 32% | 37% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 0.66 xGGetafe 0.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Getafe |
Javi Muñoz | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Luiz Felipe | 0.13 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 14' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 15' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kiko Femenía |
| 17' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 20' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Álvaro García |
| 21' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Diego Rico |
| 24' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 30' |
Getafe |
Adrián Liso | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Javi Muñoz |
| 33' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Luiz Felipe | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 35' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Óscar Valentín | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álvaro García |
| 38' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Javi Muñoz |
| 40' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Unai López |
| 50' |
Getafe |
Luis Milla | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mauro Arambarri |
| 52' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álvaro García |
| 64' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 69' |
Getafe |
Domingos Duarte | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 70' |
Getafe |
Javi Muñoz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
| 82' |
Getafe |
Joselu Pérez | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kiko Femenía |
| 90' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.23 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Luis Milla |
| 96' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Nobel Mendy | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Lejeune |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.34 | 0.14 |
| Kiko Femenía MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Diego Rico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Javi Muñoz MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Adrián Liso ML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Juan Iglesias DR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mario Martín FW | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Juanmi Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alex Sancris Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Coba da Costa Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joselu Pérez Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Alejandro Mestanza Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro García AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| Óscar Valentín DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.30 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Isi Palazón AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| Unai López DMC | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| Jorge De Frutos AMR | 69 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| Sergio Camello FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Nobel Mendy Sub | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Luiz Felipe DC | 39 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Fran Pérez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfonso Espino Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gerard Gumbau Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |