Rayo Vallecano v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 9
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
17 – 5
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.37 – 0.51
Goals − xG
-2.13 – -0.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
45.2%
Draw
24.3%
Mallorca win
30.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.52–1.06 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 51% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 2.13 xGMallorca 0.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Mallorca attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 20' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 20' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro García |
| 21' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Unai López |
| 26' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 30' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Unai López |
| 33' |
 Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Toni Lato |
| 38' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 41' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pathé Ciss | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 41' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 45' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 46' |
Mallorca |
Marc Domenech | 0.44 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 48' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Lejeune |
| 48' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 52' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vedat Muriqi |
| 53' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Lejeune |
| 55' |
Mallorca |
Antonio Sánchez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 64' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 66' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 69' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Mallorca |
Cyle Larin | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Raíllo |
| 76' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 77' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Álvaro García |
| 77' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 80' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álvaro García |
| 83' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 86' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Samú Costa |
| 92' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Adrián Embarba | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álvaro García |
Players
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samú Costa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.17 |
| Sergi Darder ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Mateu Morey DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Dominik Greif GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| David López DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Toni Lato DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Marc Domenech FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Antonio Sánchez MR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Omar Mascarell MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Cyle Larin Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Morlanes Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jan Salas Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Dani Rodríguez Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Mojica Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge De Frutos FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.87 | 0.08 | 0.99 |
| Isi Palazón AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.22 | 0.93 |
| Álvaro García AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.57 | 0.93 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.50 |
| Andrei Ratiu AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.73 |
| Pathé Ciss DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Aridane Hernández DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Iván Balliu DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Unai López DMC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.49 | 1.10 |
| Gerard Gumbau Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Adrián Embarba Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Óscar Trejo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |