Rayo Vallecano v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 15 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 10
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 4
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.28 – 0.91
Goals − xG
+0.69 – +0.83
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
29.3%
Draw
27.1%
Real Betis win
43.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.04–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.31–1.57 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 1.31 xGReal Betis 1.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aridane Hernández |
| 13' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iván Balliu |
| 14' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
 Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Youssouf Sabaly |
| 24' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 29' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Bartra |
| 35' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 36' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 36' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro García |
| 45' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 50' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ricardo Rodríguez |
| 56' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 57' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Aridane Hernández | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 60' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 70' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 72' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 73' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 74' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Óscar Valentín |
| 74' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 77' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alfonso Espino | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Óscar Valentín |
| 88' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Óscar Trejo |
| 95' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alfonso Espino | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Óscar Trejo |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Johnny Cardoso DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Adrián GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Pablo Fornals DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Isco AMC | 75 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.90 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Aitor Ruibal Sub | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Youssouf Sabaly DR | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Jesús Rodriguez Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovani Lo Celso Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Carvalho Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cédric Bakambu Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro García AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.02 | 0.54 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Aridane Hernández DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.37 |
| Isi Palazón AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.34 | 0.56 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Andrei Ratiu AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pedro Díaz DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 0.51 |
| Jorge De Frutos FW | 74 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Pathé Ciss DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Iván Balliu DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Alfonso Espino Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Unai López Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Óscar Valentín Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| Óscar Trejo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Sergi Guardiola Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |