Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 8
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
3 – 3
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.24
Goals − xG
+1.46 – +1.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
52.6%
Draw
27.5%
Real Sociedad win
19.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLLWDW last 10
scored 13
from 12.3 xG
conceded 17
from 19.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–0.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 0.54 xGReal Sociedad 0.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Real Sociedad |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martín Zubimendi |
| 7' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Real Sociedad |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.17 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Sergio Gómez |
| 20' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Óscar Trejo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 21' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pathé Ciss | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 45' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aridane Hernández |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pep Chavarría |
| 57' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Óscar Trejo | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andrei Ratiu |
| 59' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Beñat Turrientes |
| 71' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Álvaro García |
| 74' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Real Sociedad |
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
Real Sociedad |
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 90' |
Real Sociedad |
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.58 |
| Martín Zubimendi DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Sergio Gómez MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aritz Elustondo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Orri Óskarsson FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ander Barrenetxea ML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Javier López DL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Beñat Turrientes Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.55 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arkaitz Mariezkurrena Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro García AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aridane Hernández DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Pathé Ciss DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Pedro Díaz DMC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Jorge De Frutos AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Óscar Trejo AMC | 63 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Sergi Guardiola FW | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Etienne Eto'o Pineda Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai López Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Óscar Valentín Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfonso Espino Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián Embarba Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |