Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 13
On target
9 – 8
Shots in box
13 – 10
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
1.12 – 0.86
Goals − xG
-0.22 – +0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Rayo Vallecano win
45.3%
Draw
26.2%
Real Sociedad win
28.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLLWDW last 10
scored 13
from 12.3 xG
conceded 17
from 19.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.64–1.29 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Rayo Vallecano 3.22 xGReal Sociedad 2.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Rayo Vallecano attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Orri Óskarsson |
| 1' |
Real Sociedad |
Duje Caleta-Car | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 4' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 5' |
Real Sociedad |
Beñat Turrientes | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 6' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 21' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ander Barrenetxea |
| 27' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Martín |
| 29' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 35' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Camello |
| 36' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilias Akhomach |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Camello |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nobel Mendy |
| 50' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 58' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Carlos Martín | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 58' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 61' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 62' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sergio Gómez |
| 65' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 65' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilias Akhomach |
| 75' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 78' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gerard Gumbau |
| 82' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 83' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.58 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 83' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gerard Gumbau |
| 86' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gerard Gumbau |
| 88' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 93' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ilias Akhomach |
| 95' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilias Akhomach |
| 96' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pathé Ciss | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gerard Gumbau |
| 98' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alemão | 0.59 | Open Play | — | Goal | Pedro Díaz |
| 100' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Ilias Akhomach | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
| 103' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 104' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Lejeune |
Players
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.28 | 0.10 | 0.73 |
| Carlos Soler MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Duje Caleta-Car DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 1.01 | 1.04 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Beñat Turrientes MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Orri Óskarsson FW | 72 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.06 | 0.60 |
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ander Barrenetxea ML | 61 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Pablo Marín Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1.16 |
| Luka Sucic Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yangel Herrera Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| Pathé Ciss DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ilias Akhomach AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.52 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Daniel Cárdenas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Unai López DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Isi Palazón AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Sergio Camello FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.90 | 0.09 | 1.01 |
| Carlos Martín AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Nobel Mendy DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| Alemão Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Jorge De Frutos Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| Gerard Gumbau Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.51 | 0.90 |
| Fran Pérez Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |