RB Leipzig v Manchester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627

Champions League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

RB Leipzig

20:00 UTC

Manchester City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 201h before kick-off

RB Leipzig win

22.2%

model 23.0%

Draw

22.2%

model 20.6%

Manchester City win

55.6%

model 56.4%

222256

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-2 9.8%
1-1 9.4%
0-1 9.2%
0-2 8.4%
1-3 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.6%	Under 2.5	39.4%
BTTS yes	58.7%	BTTS no	41.3%
RB Leipzig 1+	69.0%	RB Leipzig 2+	32.7%
Manchester City 1+	86.0%	Manchester City 2+	58.4%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

65/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

88%

★ Best pick

Manchester City (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

57.0% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Manchester City not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1851 Elo against 1453.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.88).
Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
RB Leipzig have only 8 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester City have an estimated 55.6% win probability, against 22.2% for RB Leipzig and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.17 for RB Leipzig and 1.96 for Manchester City.

Why RB Leipzig

They have had 30 days' rest to Manchester City's 11.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 15% in this competition.

Why Manchester City can win

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1851 Elo against 1453. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Manchester City's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Erling Haaland (0.86), Mathis Cherki (0.41), Phil Foden (0.36).

Availability

No lineup on record for RB Leipzig, so availability is unknown. 1 of Manchester City's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Manchester City's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

RB Leipzig: 49% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Manchester City: 60% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Manchester City are the model's most likely outcome at 55.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.8%. Confidence 65/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester City are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLWWWWWWWL last 10 scored 22 from 21.6 xG conceded 12 from 14.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	232156	1.17–1.96	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	332344	1.32–1.58	1-1 11%	55%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win	44.3%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
RB Leipzig to win	32.5%	30.4%	51.0%	0.60×	3.29
Draw	23.2%	24.5%	15.6%	1.57×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & both teams score	22.3%	21.8%	18.4%	1.19×	4.59
Manchester City & not both score	22.0%	21.8%	15.6%	1.40×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	18.0%	10.7%	1.68×	5.56
RB Leipzig & both teams score	16.8%	18.0%	26.8%	0.67×	5.57
RB Leipzig & not both score	15.8%	18.0%	24.5%	0.73×	5.57
Draw & not both score	4.8%	4.9%	5.1%	0.96×	20.48

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & over 1.5	34.9%	30.8%	28.1%	1.10×	3.25
Manchester City & under 3.5	29.0%	26.1%	19.1%	1.36×	3.84
Manchester City & over 2.5	28.0%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
RB Leipzig & over 1.5	24.6%	21.6%	42.9%	0.50×	4.63
RB Leipzig & under 3.5	22.4%	21.6%	26.8%	0.81×	4.63
RB Leipzig & over 2.5	19.8%	18.0%	36.7%	0.49×	5.55
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	18.0%	10.7%	1.68×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.6%	18.0%	10.5%	1.72×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	10.5%	1.72×	5.56
Manchester City & under 2.5	16.3%	18.0%	10.2%	1.76×	5.56
Manchester City & over 3.5	15.3%	18.0%	14.8%	1.22×	5.56
RB Leipzig & under 2.5	12.7%	12.8%	14.5%	0.88×	7.79
RB Leipzig & over 3.5	10.1%	12.8%	24.5%	0.52×	7.79
Manchester City & under 1.5	9.4%	7.9%	5.9%	1.35×	12.63
RB Leipzig & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.6%	7.9%	5.4%	1.48×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.6%	7.9%	5.4%	1.48×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.8%	4.8%	5.1%	0.94×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (1UP)	60.6%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
RB Leipzig (1UP)	50.6%	52.2%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2UP)	44.3%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
RB Leipzig (2UP)	32.5%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win 2nd half	38.8%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
2nd half drawn	33.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
RB Leipzig to win 2nd half	27.8%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.5%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Manchester City over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.3%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Manchester City under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.7%	39.8%	—	—	2.52
Manchester City over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.5%	20.7%	—	—	4.84

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.6%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
RB Leipzig over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.8%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
RB Leipzig under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.2%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
RB Leipzig over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.4%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (+2.5)	95.2%	96.3%	81.6%	1.18×	1.04
Manchester City (+1.5)	86.1%	88.5%	68.4%	1.29×	1.13
Manchester City (+0.5)	67.5%	68.7%	49.0%	1.40×	1.46
RB Leipzig (+0.5)	55.7%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75
Manchester City (-0.5)	44.3%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
RB Leipzig (-0.5)	32.5%	31.3%	51.0%	0.61×	3.19
RB Leipzig (-1.5)	13.9%	11.5%	31.6%	0.36×	8.66
RB Leipzig (-2.5)	4.8%	3.7%	18.4%	0.20×	27.03

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to concede	73.2%	76.7%	79.6%	0.96×	1.30
Manchester City clean sheet	26.8%	23.3%	20.4%	1.14×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City clean sheet in 1st half	56.8%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Manchester City to concede in 1st half	43.2%	43.5%	—	—	2.30

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to concede in 2nd half	52.8%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Manchester City clean sheet in 2nd half	47.2%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City under 3.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Manchester City over 0.5 goals	79.4%	76.3%	70.7%	1.08×	1.31
Manchester City under 2.5 goals	78.8%	76.3%	79.1%	0.96×	1.31
Manchester City under 1.5 goals	53.1%	53.5%	59.9%	0.89×	1.87
Manchester City over 1.5 goals	46.9%	46.5%	40.1%	1.16×	2.15
Manchester City over 2.5 goals	21.2%	23.7%	20.9%	1.14×	4.21
Manchester City under 0.5 goals	20.6%	23.7%	29.3%	0.81×	4.21
Manchester City over 3.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City under 1.5 in 1st half	86.7%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Manchester City under 0.5 in 1st half	53.1%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Manchester City over 0.5 in 1st half	46.9%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
Manchester City over 1.5 in 1st half	13.3%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City scores more in 2nd half	41.6%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Manchester City scores equally in both	34.9%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Manchester City scores more in 1st half	23.5%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig (away no bet)	58.4%	57.4%	76.6%	0.75×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.6%	42.6%	23.4%	1.82×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City even goals	52.1%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Manchester City odd goals	47.9%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.9%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.94

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	33.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Manchester City to score 2+ in a row	37.7%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
RB Leipzig to score 2+ in a row	28.5%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.4%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Manchester City to score 3+ in a row	13.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
RB Leipzig to score 3+ in a row	8.3%	5.5%	—	—	18.11

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.8%	11.5%	5.6%	2.04×	8.72
0-1	9.4%	7.4%	5.9%	1.26×	13.51
1-2	9.1%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
0-2	6.9%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.51
1-0	7.9%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.51
2-1	7.6%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	3.8%	1.93×	13.51
0-0	4.8%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.29
1-3	4.8%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.29
2-0	4.8%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.29
0-3	3.6%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.30
0-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.31
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.31
2-3	3.1%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.30
2-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.68×	58.31
3-0	2.1%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.31
3-1	3.3%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.30
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.30
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.36×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.32
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.3%	1.34×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.36×	58.32
Any other score	3.4%	1.7%	11.5%	0.15×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2nd half DNB)	58.3%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
RB Leipzig (2nd half DNB)	41.7%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City leading at HT (DNB)	53.6%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
RB Leipzig leading at HT (DNB)	46.4%	43.8%	—	—	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig or Manchester City (12)	76.8%	75.5%	84.4%	0.89×	1.32
Manchester City or draw (X2)	67.5%	69.6%	49.0%	1.42×	1.44
RB Leipzig or draw (1X)	55.7%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw at HT	73.0%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
RB Leipzig or draw at HT	68.8%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
RB Leipzig or Manchester City at HT	58.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw (1UP)	67.5%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
RB Leipzig or draw (1UP)	55.7%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw in 2nd half	72.2%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
RB Leipzig or Manchester City in 2nd half	66.7%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
RB Leipzig or draw in 2nd half	61.2%	63.5%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.9%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.1%	38.7%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (DNB)	57.7%	58.1%	39.8%	1.46×	1.72
RB Leipzig (DNB)	42.3%	41.9%	60.2%	0.70×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score first	51.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
RB Leipzig to score first	43.3%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	4.8%	4.4%	—	—	22.70

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.5%	55.0%	55.4%	0.99×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.5%	45.0%	44.6%	1.01×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.7%	44.3%	50.0%	0.89×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	33.9%	34.6%	29.3%	1.18×	2.89
Both score & under 2.5	10.8%	12.4%	5.6%	2.20×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.3%	15.6%	0.53×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.2%	82.6%	80.9%	1.02×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.8%	17.4%	19.1%	0.91×	5.76

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.9%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.1%	32.7%	—	—	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.3%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	25.6%	26.7%	—	—	3.74
Both score 1st half only	13.6%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	6.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.78

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.9%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.1%	18.9%	—	—	5.28

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.7%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	43.3%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.8%	42.2%	37.2%	1.13×	2.37
4-6 goals	30.1%	30.7%	37.5%	0.82×	3.26
0-1 goals	22.2%	22.9%	18.9%	1.21×	4.36
7+ goals	2.9%	1.8%	6.9%	0.27×	54.27

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score exactly 1	32.5%	33.8%	30.9%	1.10×	2.96
Manchester City to score exactly 2	25.7%	27.4%	19.4%	1.42×	3.65
Manchester City to score 3+	21.2%	22.3%	20.9%	1.06×	4.49
Manchester City to score exactly 0	20.6%	22.3%	29.3%	0.76×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig to score exactly 1	35.3%	35.5%	25.0%	1.42×	2.81
RB Leipzig to score exactly 0	26.8%	26.6%	20.4%	1.30×	3.77
RB Leipzig to score exactly 2	23.2%	23.3%	23.7%	0.98×	4.29
RB Leipzig to score 3+	14.7%	14.3%	31.4%	0.46×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Manchester City leading at HT	31.2%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
RB Leipzig leading at HT	27.0%	25.5%	—	—	3.92

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City -1: 1	55.7%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Manchester City -1: X	22.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Manchester City -1: 2	22.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:1)	67.5%	65.3%	49.0%	1.33×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	18.6%	17.8%	19.6%	0.91×	5.61
RB Leipzig (0:1)	13.9%	13.7%	31.6%	0.43×	7.29

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:2)	86.1%	87.1%	68.4%	1.27×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.1%	7.7%	13.5%	0.57×	13.04
RB Leipzig (0:2)	4.8%	3.8%	18.4%	0.20×	26.62

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:3)	95.2%	96.6%	81.6%	1.18×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.4%	2.4%	8.9%	0.27×	41.99
RB Leipzig (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	9.7%	0.25×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	90.3%	1.09×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	5.9%	0.21×	81.85
RB Leipzig (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	4.1%	0.30×	81.93

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig (1:0)	55.7%	58.2%	66.3%	0.88×	1.72
Draw (1:0)	22.2%	21.7%	16.8%	1.29×	4.61
Manchester City (1:0)	22.1%	21.7%	17.1%	1.27×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig (2:0)	77.9%	80.4%	82.9%	0.97×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	13.1%	10.3%	7.9%	1.30×	9.71
Manchester City (2:0)	8.9%	6.4%	9.4%	0.68×	15.64

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.7%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	22.9%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig to concede	79.4%	76.1%	70.7%	1.08×	1.31
RB Leipzig clean sheet	20.6%	23.9%	29.3%	0.81×	4.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig clean sheet in 1st half	53.1%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
RB Leipzig to concede in 1st half	46.9%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig to concede in 2nd half	61.3%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
RB Leipzig clean sheet in 2nd half	38.7%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig under 3.5 goals	95.5%	96.4%	83.9%	1.15×	1.04
RB Leipzig under 2.5 goals	85.3%	87.3%	68.6%	1.27×	1.15
RB Leipzig over 0.5 goals	73.2%	74.2%	79.6%	0.93×	1.35
RB Leipzig under 1.5 goals	62.1%	63.6%	45.2%	1.41×	1.57
RB Leipzig over 1.5 goals	37.9%	36.4%	54.8%	0.66×	2.75
RB Leipzig under 0.5 goals	26.8%	25.8%	20.4%	1.26×	3.88
RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals	14.7%	12.7%	31.4%	0.41×	7.85
RB Leipzig over 3.5 goals	4.5%	3.6%	16.1%	0.23×	27.49

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig under 1.5 in 1st half	88.9%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
RB Leipzig under 0.5 in 1st half	56.8%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
RB Leipzig over 0.5 in 1st half	43.2%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
RB Leipzig over 1.5 in 1st half	11.1%	9.9%	—	—	10.15

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig scores equally in both	39.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
RB Leipzig scores more in 2nd half	35.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
RB Leipzig scores more in 1st half	24.6%	21.1%	—	—	4.75

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (home no bet)	65.6%	64.1%	68.4%	0.94×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	34.4%	35.9%	31.6%	1.14×	2.79

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig even goals	53.6%	50.8%	53.3%	0.95×	1.97
RB Leipzig odd goals	46.4%	49.2%	46.7%	1.05×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
HT 0-1	19.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-0	17.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	10.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 0-2	6.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 2-0	4.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
Any other HT score	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.12
HT 1-2	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.20
HT 2-1	3.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.36

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City at HT / Manchester City at FT	24.5%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
RB Leipzig at HT / RB Leipzig at FT	18.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Manchester City at FT	16.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / RB Leipzig at FT	12.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
RB Leipzig at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
Manchester City at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
RB Leipzig at HT / Manchester City at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.92
Manchester City at HT / RB Leipzig at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.96

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score last	51.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
RB Leipzig to score last	43.3%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	4.8%	4.4%	—	—	22.70

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.2%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Manchester City to lead by 1 at any time	60.6%	61.2%	—	—	1.64
RB Leipzig to lead by 1 at any time	50.6%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.8%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Manchester City to lead by 2 at any time	29.0%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
RB Leipzig to lead by 2 at any time	20.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.14
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Manchester City to lead by 3 at any time	11.3%	10.6%	—	—	9.46
RB Leipzig to lead by 3 at any time	6.5%	6.6%	—	—	15.08

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.8%	87.4%	81.4%	1.07×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.4%	78.7%	67.3%	1.17×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.0%	72.3%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.4%	72.3%	67.6%	1.07×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.2%	63.3%	51.0%	1.24×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.0%	63.3%	53.6%	1.18×	1.58
3-6 goals	52.5%	53.2%	58.7%	0.91×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.0%	48.4%	51.8%	0.94×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.8%	43.6%	37.2%	1.17×	2.29
1-2 goals	39.8%	39.2%	29.8%	1.31×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.6%	39.2%	37.8%	1.04×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.1%	35.2%	37.5%	0.94×	2.84
4-5 goals	25.6%	30.2%	30.6%	0.99×	3.31
5-6 goals	13.9%	14.8%	21.2%	0.70×	6.75
7+ goals	2.9%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City never behind	44.6%	48.9%	—	—	2.05
RB Leipzig never behind	34.5%	36.4%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	48.8%	50.9%	45.4%	1.12×	1.97
Odd number of goals	51.2%	49.1%	54.6%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.2%	95.4%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	86.2%	1.07×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.2%	82.3%	72.2%	1.14×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.8%	77.3%	81.1%	0.95×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	67.0%	66.3%	55.9%	1.19×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.4%	58.6%	65.3%	0.90×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	44.6%	41.4%	34.7%	1.19×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	33.0%	33.7%	44.1%	0.76×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.2%	22.7%	18.9%	1.20×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	16.8%	17.7%	27.8%	0.64×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	13.8%	0.56×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	4.8%	4.6%	5.1%	0.90×	21.80

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.0%	97.2%	92.6%	1.05×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.8%	92.4%	84.0%	1.10×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	80.0%	75.9%	66.8%	1.14×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	71.4%	72.4%	77.6%	0.93×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.5%	55.8%	44.0%	1.27×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.5%	44.2%	56.0%	0.79×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	28.6%	27.6%	22.4%	1.23×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.0%	24.1%	33.2%	0.72×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.2%	7.6%	16.0%	0.47×	13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.0%	2.8%	7.4%	0.38×	35.61

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.0%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.0%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.4%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.6%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.0%	31.3%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.14

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.0%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.7%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.3%	20.5%	—	—	4.88
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.0%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig not to score in both halves	77.2%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Manchester City not to score in both halves	71.3%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Manchester City to score in both halves	28.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
RB Leipzig to score in both halves	22.8%	21.6%	—	—	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.5%	58.6%	55.4%	1.06×	1.71
Only Manchester City scores	22.0%	22.2%	15.6%	1.43×	4.50
Only RB Leipzig scores	15.8%	16.0%	24.5%	0.65×	6.24
Neither team scores	4.8%	4.6%	5.1%	0.91×	21.53

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.5%	22.6%	16.1%	1.41×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	21.4%	1.05×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.4%	17.5%	14.0%	1.24×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	16.2%	17.5%	16.6%	1.05×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.4%	7.6%	14.3%	0.53×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.4%	7.6%	13.8%	0.55×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	4.8%	4.5%	5.1%	0.88×	22.33

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	30.0%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
2 goals in 1st half	21.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	12.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.22

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.4%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	31.5%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	18.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig not to win both halves	92.6%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Manchester City not to win both halves	88.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Manchester City to win both halves	12.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
RB Leipzig to win both halves	7.4%	5.8%	—	—	17.12

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win either half	58.1%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
RB Leipzig to win neither half	52.6%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
RB Leipzig to win either half	47.4%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Manchester City to win neither half	41.9%	40.9%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
RB Leipzig not to win to nil	84.3%	83.1%	75.5%	1.10×	1.20
Manchester City not to win to nil	78.0%	78.1%	84.4%	0.93×	1.28
Manchester City to win to nil	22.0%	21.9%	15.6%	1.41×	4.57
RB Leipzig to win to nil	15.8%	16.9%	24.5%	0.69×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.2%	24.1%	15.6%	1.55×	4.15
Manchester City by 1	22.2%	24.1%	16.8%	1.43×	4.15
RB Leipzig by 1	18.6%	17.1%	19.6%	0.87×	5.86
Manchester City by 2	13.1%	11.8%	7.9%	1.49×	8.50
RB Leipzig by 2	9.1%	7.2%	13.5%	0.53×	13.90
Manchester City by 3+	8.9%	7.2%	9.4%	0.76×	13.90
RB Leipzig by 3+	4.8%	2.7%	18.4%	0.15×	36.82