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RB Salzburg v LASK Linz — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · AUT-Bundesliga · 2627

AUT-Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
RB Salzburg win
39.9%
model 39.9%
Draw
28.9%
model 26.4%
LASK Linz win
31.2%
model 33.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.2%
  2. 2-1 8.8%
  3. 1-2 8.0%
  4. 2-2 6.4%
  5. 1-0 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.558.9% Under 2.541.1%
BTTS yes62.4% BTTS no37.6%
RB Salzburg 1+79.8% RB Salzburg 2+47.5%
LASK Linz 1+76.7% LASK Linz 2+42.8%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.46. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
21/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
3-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 51%
58.4% fair odds 1.71
moderate signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
RB Salzburg not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 77%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0103 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

RB Salzburg have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.2% for LASK Linz and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.60 for RB Salzburg and 1.46 for LASK Linz.

Why RB Salzburg

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.60 to 1.46. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why LASK Linz can win

LASK Linz carry the stronger rating, 1703 Elo against 1608. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for RB Salzburg, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for LASK Linz, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

RB Salzburg: 50% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. LASK Linz: 58% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

RB Salzburg are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.60–1.46 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.80–1.44 1-1 11% 63% 65%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg to win 45.0% 47.3% 43.5% 1.09× 2.11
LASK Linz to win 29.9% 27.9% 31.4% 0.89× 3.58
Draw 25.1% 27.9% 25.4% 1.10× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg & both teams score 26.3% 25.2% 21.1% 1.19× 3.98
Draw & both teams score 20.1% 21.8% 18.3% 1.19× 4.59
RB Salzburg & not both score 18.7% 18.0% 22.6% 0.80× 5.56
LASK Linz & both teams score 18.3% 18.0% 16.9% 1.07× 5.56
LASK Linz & not both score 11.5% 13.3% 14.7% 0.90× 7.54
Draw & not both score 5.0% 8.3% 7.4% 1.13× 12.02
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg & over 1.5 39.1% 34.9% 34.7% 1.01× 2.87
RB Salzburg & over 2.5 32.7% 30.8% 27.6% 1.12× 3.25
RB Salzburg & under 3.5 25.2% 26.1% 30.4% 0.86× 3.84
LASK Linz & over 1.5 25.3% 26.1% 25.4% 1.03× 3.84
LASK Linz & over 2.5 21.2% 21.6% 20.0% 1.08× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 20.1% 21.6% 18.3% 1.18× 4.63
RB Salzburg & over 3.5 19.8% 18.0% 13.3% 1.35× 5.56
LASK Linz & under 3.5 17.9% 18.0% 22.1% 0.81× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 16.3% 18.0% 19.7% 0.91× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 16.3% 18.0% 19.7% 0.91× 5.56
RB Salzburg & under 2.5 12.3% 12.8% 16.2% 0.79× 7.79
LASK Linz & over 3.5 12.0% 12.8% 9.5% 1.35× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 8.8% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 8.8% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.63
LASK Linz & under 2.5 8.6% 7.9% 11.6% 0.68× 12.63
RB Salzburg & under 1.5 6.0% 7.9% 9.0% 0.88× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 5.0% 7.9% 7.4% 1.08× 12.63
LASK Linz & under 1.5 4.5% 4.8% 6.2% 0.78× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg (1UP) 63.1% 62.8% — — 1.59
LASK Linz (1UP) 50.5% 52.4% — — 1.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg (2UP) 45.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
LASK Linz (2UP) 29.9% 25.4% — — 3.93
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg to win 2nd half 38.0% 36.2% — — 2.76
2nd half drawn 32.6% 34.1% — — 2.93
LASK Linz to win 2nd half 29.4% 26.1% — — 3.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.6% 79.3% — — 1.26
LASK Linz over 0.5 in 2nd half 57.8% 54.4% — — 1.84
LASK Linz under 0.5 in 2nd half 42.2% 45.6% — — 2.19
LASK Linz over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.4% 20.7% — — 4.82
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg under 1.5 in 2nd half 72.7% 74.4% — — 1.35
RB Salzburg over 0.5 in 2nd half 64.1% 62.9% — — 1.59
RB Salzburg under 0.5 in 2nd half 35.9% 37.1% — — 2.70
RB Salzburg over 1.5 in 2nd half 27.3% 25.6% — — 3.90
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz (+2.5) 88.9% 88.5% 90.7% 0.98× 1.13
LASK Linz (+1.5) 75.0% 73.7% 77.0% 0.96× 1.36
RB Salzburg (+0.5) 70.1% 73.6% 68.6% 1.07× 1.36
LASK Linz (+0.5) 55.0% 52.4% 56.5% 0.93× 1.91
RB Salzburg (-0.5) 45.0% 47.6% 43.5% 1.09× 2.10
LASK Linz (-0.5) 29.9% 26.4% 31.4% 0.84× 3.79
RB Salzburg (-1.5) 25.0% 26.3% 23.0% 1.14× 3.80
RB Salzburg (-2.5) 11.1% 11.5% 9.3% 1.24× 8.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz to concede 83.4% 81.6% 78.1% 1.04× 1.23
LASK Linz clean sheet 16.6% 18.4% 21.9% 0.84× 5.42
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz to concede in 1st half 53.8% 50.6% — — 1.98
LASK Linz clean sheet in 1st half 46.2% 49.4% — — 2.02
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz to concede in 2nd half 64.1% 61.5% — — 1.63
LASK Linz clean sheet in 2nd half 35.9% 38.5% — — 2.59
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz under 6.5 corners 83.3% 81.4% — — 1.23
LASK Linz under 5.5 corners 73.4% 71.6% — — 1.40
LASK Linz over 2.5 corners 73.2% 71.6% — — 1.40
LASK Linz under 4.5 corners 60.0% 61.8% — — 1.62
LASK Linz over 3.5 corners 56.2% 57.2% — — 1.75
LASK Linz under 3.5 corners 43.8% 42.8% — — 2.33
LASK Linz over 4.5 corners 40.0% 38.2% — — 2.62
LASK Linz under 2.5 corners 26.8% 28.4% — — 3.52
LASK Linz over 5.5 corners 26.6% 28.4% — — 3.52
LASK Linz over 6.5 corners 16.7% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz under 3.5 goals 94.2% 92.4% 96.9% 0.95× 1.08
LASK Linz under 2.5 goals 82.4% 81.5% 86.9% 0.94× 1.23
LASK Linz over 0.5 goals 76.3% 76.2% 70.3% 1.08× 1.31
LASK Linz under 1.5 goals 57.8% 59.4% 64.8% 0.92× 1.68
LASK Linz over 1.5 goals 42.2% 40.6% 35.2% 1.15× 2.47
LASK Linz under 0.5 goals 23.7% 23.8% 29.7% 0.80× 4.21
LASK Linz over 2.5 goals 17.6% 18.5% 13.1% 1.42× 5.40
LASK Linz over 3.5 goals 5.8% 7.6% 3.1% 2.48× 13.08
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz under 1.5 in 1st half 88.6% 89.5% — — 1.12
LASK Linz under 0.5 in 1st half 56.2% 62.0% — — 1.61
LASK Linz over 0.5 in 1st half 43.8% 38.0% — — 2.63
LASK Linz over 1.5 in 1st half 11.4% 10.5% — — 9.49
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz scores more in 2nd half 40.0% 43.4% — — 2.30
LASK Linz scores equally in both 37.1% 37.5% — — 2.67
LASK Linz scores more in 1st half 22.9% 21.8% — — 4.58
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg (away no bet) 64.2% 62.0% 63.1% 0.98× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 35.8% 38.0% 36.9% 1.03× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz even goals 52.8% 52.6% 53.4% 0.98× 1.90
LASK Linz odd goals 47.2% 47.4% 46.6% 1.02× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 78.0% 81.2% — — 1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals 22.0% 18.8% — — 5.33
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 73.9% 67.8% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 26.1% 32.2% — — 3.10
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 64.5% 60.1% — — 1.67
RB Salzburg to score 2+ in a row 43.2% 38.7% — — 2.58
LASK Linz to score 2+ in a row 31.1% 29.0% — — 3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row 25.7% 25.0% — — 4.00
RB Salzburg to score 3+ in a row 16.8% 16.2% — — 6.17
LASK Linz to score 3+ in a row 9.5% 5.6% — — 17.91
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg corners (+3.5) 90.5% 89.6% — — 1.12
RB Salzburg corners (+2.5) 85.2% 84.5% — — 1.18
RB Salzburg corners (+1.5) 78.1% 74.8% — — 1.34
LASK Linz corners (+3.5) 71.7% 70.7% — — 1.41
LASK Linz corners (+2.5) 62.3% 61.8% — — 1.62
LASK Linz corners (+1.5) 51.8% 52.4% — — 1.91
RB Salzburg corners (-1.5) 48.2% 47.6% — — 2.10
RB Salzburg corners (-2.5) 37.7% 38.2% — — 2.62
RB Salzburg corners (-3.5) 28.3% 29.3% — — 3.42
LASK Linz corners (-1.5) 21.9% 25.2% — — 3.97
LASK Linz corners (-2.5) 14.8% 15.5% — — 6.44
LASK Linz corners (-3.5) 9.5% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 39.9% 34.0% — — 2.94
12+ corners 30.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 29.5% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 77.0% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 70.4% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 69.4% 67.8% — — 1.47
Under 10.5 corners 60.4% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 60.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 50.4% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 49.6% 46.9% — — 2.13
Under 8.5 corners 39.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 39.6% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 30.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 29.6% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 23.0% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.3% 11.5% 12.6% 0.91× 8.72
2-1 9.1% 7.4% 10.5% 0.71× 13.51
1-2 7.3% 7.4% 7.8% 0.94× 13.51
2-2 6.6% 7.4% 5.5% 1.35× 13.51
0-0 5.0% 7.4% 7.4% 1.01× 13.51
1-0 6.0% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.51
2-0 6.4% 7.4% 7.4% 1.01× 13.51
3-1 5.5% 7.4% 4.5% 1.64× 13.51
Any other score 5.1% 7.4% 4.3% 1.73× 13.51
0-1 4.5% 1.7% 6.2% 0.28× 58.29
0-2 4.1% 1.7% 5.7% 0.30× 58.30
0-3 2.0% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.31
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.5% 3.61× 58.32
1-3 3.5% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.30
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.81× 58.31
2-3 3.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.30
2-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.61× 58.31
3-0 3.8% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.30
3-2 3.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.03× 58.30
3-3 1.9% 1.7% 0.7% 2.41× 58.31
3-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.41× 58.32
4-0 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.81× 58.31
4-1 2.5% 1.7% 1.9% 0.90× 58.31
4-2 1.8% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.31
4-3 0.8% 1.7% 0.2% 7.22× 58.31
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 7.22× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg (2nd half DNB) 56.4% 59.6% — — 1.68
LASK Linz (2nd half DNB) 43.6% 40.4% — — 2.48
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg leading at HT (DNB) 59.9% 56.6% — — 1.77
LASK Linz leading at HT (DNB) 40.1% 43.4% — — 2.31
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg or LASK Linz (12) 74.9% 72.1% 74.6% 0.97× 1.39
RB Salzburg or draw (1X) 70.1% 72.1% 68.6% 1.05× 1.39
LASK Linz or draw (X2) 55.0% 52.7% 56.5% 0.93× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg or draw at HT 75.6% 79.4% — — 1.26
LASK Linz or draw at HT 63.6% 61.0% — — 1.64
RB Salzburg or LASK Linz at HT 60.8% 60.9% — — 1.64
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg or draw (1UP) 70.1% 79.4% — — 1.26
LASK Linz or draw (1UP) 55.0% 58.9% — — 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg or draw in 2nd half 70.6% 73.9% — — 1.35
RB Salzburg or LASK Linz in 2nd half 67.4% 65.9% — — 1.52
LASK Linz or draw in 2nd half 62.0% 63.8% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 57.8% 58.7% — — 1.70
Neither half drawn 42.2% 41.3% — — 2.42
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg (DNB) 60.1% 62.6% 58.1% 1.08× 1.60
LASK Linz (DNB) 39.9% 37.4% 41.9% 0.89× 2.67
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg to score first 52.7% 53.4% — — 1.87
LASK Linz to score first 42.2% 41.6% — — 2.40
No goal scored 5.0% 7.4% — — 13.59
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 64.7% 56.6% 55.8% 1.01× 1.77
Not both teams to score 35.3% 43.4% 44.2% 0.98× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 53.5% 47.3% 43.5% 1.09× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 26.0% 33.3% 34.7% 0.96× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 11.3% 12.4% 12.6% 0.98× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 9.3% 8.3% 9.7% 0.85× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 77.4% 79.7% 86.9% 0.92× 1.26
Both teams to score 2+ 22.6% 20.3% 13.1% 1.55× 4.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 62.6% 65.9% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 37.4% 34.1% — — 2.94
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 47.5% 53.1% — — 1.88
Both score 2nd half only 28.7% 27.3% — — 3.67
Both score 1st half only 15.0% 14.9% — — 6.70
Both score in both halves 8.7% 6.9% — — 14.59
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 76.3% 81.1% — — 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 23.7% 18.9% — — 5.29
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 63.4% 59.7% — — 1.68
A half without a goal 36.6% 40.3% — — 2.48
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.9% 42.2% 49.9% 0.85× 2.37
4-6 goals 35.9% 35.1% 26.6% 1.32× 2.85
0-1 goals 15.5% 20.2% 22.1% 0.91× 4.95
7+ goals 4.7% 1.9% 1.9% 0.97× 54.06
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz to score exactly 1 34.1% 33.8% 35.4% 0.96× 2.96
LASK Linz to score exactly 2 24.6% 22.3% 22.3% 1.00× 4.48
LASK Linz to score exactly 0 23.7% 22.3% 29.7% 0.75× 4.49
LASK Linz to score 3+ 17.6% 19.6% 13.1% 1.50× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg to score exactly 1 29.8% 26.6% 34.9% 0.76× 3.77
RB Salzburg to score 3+ 26.8% 26.5% 18.3% 1.45× 3.77
RB Salzburg to score exactly 2 26.8% 26.5% 25.4% 1.04× 3.77
RB Salzburg to score exactly 0 16.6% 18.8% 21.9% 0.86× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 39.3% 39.1% — — 2.56
RB Salzburg leading at HT 36.4% 39.0% — — 2.56
LASK Linz leading at HT 24.4% 20.6% — — 4.85
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg -1: 2 55.0% 52.2% — — 1.92
RB Salzburg -1: 1 25.0% 26.5% — — 3.77
RB Salzburg -1: X 20.0% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz (0:1) 55.0% 51.4% 56.5% 0.91× 1.95
RB Salzburg (0:1) 25.0% 27.0% 23.0% 1.17× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 20.0% 24.2% 20.7% 1.17× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz (0:2) 75.0% 75.7% 77.0% 0.98× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 13.9% 11.0% 14.0% 0.78× 9.09
RB Salzburg (0:2) 11.1% 11.0% 9.3% 1.19× 9.11
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz (0:3) 88.9% 90.7% 90.7% 1.00× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.0% 5.8% 6.2% 0.94× 17.23
RB Salzburg (0:3) 4.1% 2.4% 3.3% 0.72× 42.05
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz (0:4) 95.9% 98.1% 96.7% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.8% 1.2% 1.7% 0.73× 81.86
RB Salzburg (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 1.9% 0.64× 82.03
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg (1:0) 70.1% 72.4% 68.6% 1.05× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 15.8% 17.1% 16.4% 1.04× 5.85
LASK Linz (1:0) 14.1% 12.7% 15.2% 0.84× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg (2:0) 85.9% 88.5% 84.8% 1.04× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.9% 6.4% 10.2% 0.63× 15.65
LASK Linz (2:0) 5.1% 6.4% 5.2% 1.22× 15.70
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.2% 48.7% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 26.2% — — 3.82
Halves equal 24.1% 24.4% — — 4.10
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg to concede 76.3% 76.0% 70.3% 1.08× 1.32
RB Salzburg clean sheet 23.7% 24.0% 29.7% 0.81× 4.17
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg clean sheet in 1st half 56.2% 62.0% — — 1.61
RB Salzburg to concede in 1st half 43.8% 38.0% — — 2.63
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg to concede in 2nd half 57.8% 54.7% — — 1.83
RB Salzburg clean sheet in 2nd half 42.2% 45.3% — — 2.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg over 2.5 corners 86.0% 86.2% — — 1.16
RB Salzburg over 3.5 corners 74.1% 71.9% — — 1.39
RB Salzburg under 6.5 corners 65.7% 66.7% — — 1.50
RB Salzburg over 4.5 corners 60.4% 62.3% — — 1.61
RB Salzburg under 5.5 corners 53.4% 52.6% — — 1.90
RB Salzburg over 5.5 corners 46.6% 47.4% — — 2.11
RB Salzburg under 4.5 corners 39.6% 37.7% — — 2.65
RB Salzburg over 6.5 corners 34.3% 33.3% — — 3.01
RB Salzburg under 3.5 corners 25.9% 28.1% — — 3.56
RB Salzburg under 2.5 corners 14.0% 13.8% — — 7.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg under 3.5 goals 89.2% 87.3% 92.4% 0.94× 1.15
RB Salzburg over 0.5 goals 83.4% 82.2% 78.1% 1.05× 1.22
RB Salzburg under 2.5 goals 73.2% 74.2% 81.7% 0.91× 1.35
RB Salzburg over 1.5 goals 53.6% 53.2% 43.5% 1.22× 1.88
RB Salzburg under 1.5 goals 46.4% 46.8% 56.5% 0.83× 2.14
RB Salzburg over 2.5 goals 26.8% 25.8% 18.3% 1.41× 3.88
RB Salzburg under 0.5 goals 16.6% 17.8% 21.9% 0.81× 5.63
RB Salzburg over 3.5 goals 10.8% 12.7% 7.6% 1.68× 7.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg under 1.5 in 1st half 81.9% 83.8% — — 1.19
RB Salzburg over 0.5 in 1st half 53.8% 50.4% — — 1.98
RB Salzburg under 0.5 in 1st half 46.2% 49.6% — — 2.02
RB Salzburg over 1.5 in 1st half 18.1% 16.2% — — 6.16
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg scores more in 2nd half 40.6% 42.0% — — 2.38
RB Salzburg scores equally in both 32.5% 33.2% — — 3.01
RB Salzburg scores more in 1st half 26.9% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz (home no bet) 54.3% 51.4% 55.2% 0.93× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 45.7% 48.6% 44.8% 1.08× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg even goals 51.4% 50.7% 52.0% 0.97× 1.97
RB Salzburg odd goals 48.6% 49.3% 48.0% 1.03× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 26.2% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 1-0 19.9% 18.5% — — 5.39
HT 0-1 14.8% 11.0% — — 9.08
HT 1-1 11.7% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 7.8% 6.9% — — 14.46
Any other HT score 6.3% 6.9% — — 14.48
HT 2-1 4.5% 2.4% — — 41.92
HT 0-2 4.3% 2.4% — — 41.93
HT 1-2 3.3% 2.4% — — 41.99
HT 2-2 1.3% 2.4% — — 42.12
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg at HT / RB Salzburg at FT 27.7% 27.3% — — 3.67
LASK Linz at HT / LASK Linz at FT 16.2% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / RB Salzburg at FT 14.3% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.0% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / LASK Linz at FT 10.9% 12.6% — — 7.92
RB Salzburg at HT / Draw at FT 5.9% 6.1% — — 16.48
LASK Linz at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.1% — — 16.50
LASK Linz at HT / RB Salzburg at FT 3.0% 3.5% — — 28.86
RB Salzburg at HT / LASK Linz at FT 2.7% 3.5% — — 28.87
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg to score last 52.8% 52.1% — — 1.92
LASK Linz to score last 42.2% 40.1% — — 2.49
No goal scored 5.0% 7.4% — — 13.59
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.0% 92.7% — — 1.08
RB Salzburg to lead by 1 at any time 63.1% 61.3% — — 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 53.8% 50.8% — — 1.97
LASK Linz to lead by 1 at any time 50.5% 50.7% — — 1.97
RB Salzburg to lead by 2 at any time 33.0% 29.8% — — 3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 21.3% 19.5% — — 5.12
LASK Linz to lead by 2 at any time 21.2% 19.5% — — 5.12
RB Salzburg to lead by 3 at any time 14.1% 10.5% — — 9.48
LASK Linz to lead by 3 at any time 7.2% 6.7% — — 14.97
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg most corners 59.0% 55.7% — — 1.80
LASK Linz most corners 30.8% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 10.2% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.0% 83.4% 86.2% 0.97× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.8% 78.7% 76.2% 1.03× 1.27
2-5 goals 73.5% 72.4% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
1-4 goals 72.4% 72.4% 79.3% 0.91× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.9% 63.3% 64.6% 0.98× 1.58
3-6 goals 58.1% 59.1% 51.3% 1.15× 1.69
1-3 goals 54.4% 53.2% 64.6% 0.82× 1.88
3-5 goals 51.8% 53.2% 46.6% 1.14× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.9% 43.6% 49.9% 0.87× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.2% 43.6% 39.7% 1.10× 2.29
4-6 goals 35.9% 39.2% 26.6% 1.47× 2.55
1-2 goals 32.2% 35.2% 39.9% 0.88× 2.84
4-5 goals 29.6% 30.2% 21.9% 1.38× 3.31
5-6 goals 17.9% 18.8% 11.9% 1.59× 5.31
7+ goals 4.7% 2.6% 1.9% 1.35× 39.04
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg never behind 44.5% 48.7% — — 2.05
LASK Linz never behind 31.8% 36.2% — — 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.7% 50.9% 47.7% 1.07× 1.96
Even number of goals 52.3% 49.1% 52.3% 0.94× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.8% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.2% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.9% 51.9% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.1% 48.1% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.0% 92.3% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 89.1% 87.6% 93.3% 0.94× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 84.5% 82.3% 77.9% 1.06× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 77.4% 77.3% 86.5% 0.89× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 62.8% 61.7% 53.0% 1.17× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 59.5% 58.6% 71.7% 0.82× 1.71
Over 3.5 goals 40.5% 41.4% 28.3% 1.46× 2.42
Under 2.5 goals 37.3% 38.3% 47.0% 0.81× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 22.6% 22.7% 13.5% 1.68× 4.40
Under 1.5 goals 15.5% 17.7% 22.1% 0.80× 5.66
Over 5.5 goals 10.9% 12.4% 6.7% 1.87× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 5.0% 7.7% 7.4% 1.05× 12.96
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.0% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 87.6% 86.7% 92.9% 0.93× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 80.1% 81.1% 70.6% 1.15× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 72.5% 72.4% 84.1% 0.86× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.1% 51.9% 37.5% 1.38× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.9% 48.1% 62.5% 0.77× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 27.5% 27.6% 15.9% 1.74× 3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 19.9% 18.9% 29.4% 0.64× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 12.4% 13.3% 7.1% 1.86× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.0% 2.8% 2.0% 1.41× 35.53
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 84.6% 85.9% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 73.8% 71.5% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 60.8% 63.1% — — 1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half 39.2% 36.9% — — 2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half 26.2% 28.5% — — 3.51
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.4% 14.1% — — 7.07
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 84.5% 83.0% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 70.7% 77.5% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 56.6% 55.2% — — 1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 43.4% 44.8% — — 2.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 29.3% 22.5% — — 4.44
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 15.5% 17.0% — — 5.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz not to score in both halves 74.7% 74.0% — — 1.35
RB Salzburg not to score in both halves 65.5% 70.0% — — 1.43
RB Salzburg to score in both halves 34.5% 30.0% — — 3.33
LASK Linz to score in both halves 25.3% 26.0% — — 3.85
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 64.7% 60.3% 55.8% 1.08× 1.66
Only RB Salzburg scores 18.7% 16.0% 22.6% 0.71× 6.24
Only LASK Linz scores 11.5% 11.0% 14.7% 0.75× 9.07
Neither team scores 5.0% 7.1% 7.4% 0.97× 14.05
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 24.9% 0.91× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 21.7% 22.6% 25.2% 0.90× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 18.0% 17.5% 15.0% 1.17× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 11.6% 12.1% 7.1% 1.70× 8.25
6 or more goals 10.9% 12.1% 6.7% 1.82× 8.25
Exactly 1 goals 10.5% 12.1% 15.0% 0.81× 8.25
Exactly 0 goals 5.0% 7.6% 7.4% 1.03× 13.15
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 34.6% 35.7% — — 2.80
No goals in 1st half 26.2% 28.5% — — 3.51
2 goals in 1st half 23.8% 21.5% — — 4.65
3+ goals in 1st half 15.4% 15.5% — — 6.44
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 56.6% 54.1% — — 1.85
1 goal in 2nd half 27.8% 29.4% — — 3.40
No goals in 2nd half 15.5% 16.6% — — 6.02
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz not to win both halves 92.7% 94.1% — — 1.06
RB Salzburg not to win both halves 86.0% 87.9% — — 1.14
RB Salzburg to win both halves 14.0% 12.1% — — 8.27
LASK Linz to win both halves 7.3% 5.9% — — 17.07
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
RB Salzburg to win either half 60.4% 64.9% — — 1.54
LASK Linz to win neither half 53.5% 54.3% — — 1.84
LASK Linz to win either half 46.5% 45.7% — — 2.19
RB Salzburg to win neither half 39.6% 35.2% — — 2.85
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LASK Linz not to win to nil 88.5% 88.1% 85.3% 1.03× 1.14
RB Salzburg not to win to nil 81.3% 83.1% 77.4% 1.07× 1.20
RB Salzburg to win to nil 18.7% 16.9% 22.6% 0.75× 5.91
LASK Linz to win to nil 11.5% 11.9% 14.7% 0.81× 8.42
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.1% 27.9% 25.4% 1.10× 3.59
RB Salzburg by 1 20.0% 24.1% 20.7% 1.17× 4.15
LASK Linz by 1 15.8% 17.0% 16.4% 1.04× 5.87
RB Salzburg by 2 13.9% 11.8% 14.0% 0.84× 8.51
RB Salzburg by 3+ 11.1% 11.7% 9.3% 1.27× 8.51
LASK Linz by 2 8.9% 7.2% 10.2% 0.70× 13.90
LASK Linz by 3+ 5.1% 7.2% 5.2% 1.38× 13.92
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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