Real Betis v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 22 August 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 11
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.68
Goals − xG
-1.21 – -1.47
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
49.4%
Draw
22.7%
Alaves win
27.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–1.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.56–1.03 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 2.21 xGAlaves 1.47 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Alaves attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Alaves |
Jon Guridi | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Vicente |
| 5' |
 Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 6' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 9' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 15' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 15' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Sergi Altimira |
| 20' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Victor Parada |
| 27' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Alaves |
Facundo Garcés | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 31' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 34' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.21 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 37' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Blanco |
| 38' |
Alaves |
Jon Guridi | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 38' |
Real Betis |
Júnior Firpo | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 43' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 55' |
Alaves |
Jonny | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 60' |
Real Betis |
Héctor Bellerín | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 63' |
Alaves |
Abderrahmane Rebbach | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 63' |
Alaves |
Victor Parada | 0.56 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Real Betis |
Pablo García | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 72' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Alaves |
Facundo Garcés | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Jonny |
| 81' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 90' |
Alaves |
Mariano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Abderrahmane Rebbach |
| 91' |
Real Betis |
Pablo García | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 94' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Pablo Fornals |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aitor Ruibal AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.33 | 0.89 |
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.52 | 0.87 |
| Pablo Fornals DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.34 | 0.67 |
| Sergi Altimira DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.06 |
| Pau López GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Giovani Lo Celso AMC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.64 | 0.12 | 1.44 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.02 | 0.51 |
| Júnior Firpo DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Pablo García Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cédric Bakambu Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Valentín Gómez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Facundo Garcés DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Jonny DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Carles Aleñá ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Carlos Vicente MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.72 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| Victor Parada DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Jon Guridi FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Pablo Ibáñez MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Antonio Martínez FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Mariano Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Calebe Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lander Pinillos Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |