Real Betis v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 16
On target
5 – 8
Shots in box
13 – 13
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
1.68 – 0.84
Goals − xG
+0.21 – +1.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
28.3%
Draw
20.4%
Barcelona win
51.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWWDWLD last 10
scored 16
from 18.2 xG
conceded 14
from 17.9 xG
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWWWWWWWL last 10
scored 40
from 37.2 xG
conceded 11
from 11.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–2.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.59–1.88 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 2.79 xGBarcelona 3.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Real Betis |
Antony | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 5' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 9' |
 Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jules Koundé |
| 12' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Roony Bardghji |
| 22' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 24' |
Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pedri |
| 32' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pedri |
| 41' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 44' |
Real Betis |
Sergi Altimira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 45' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 46' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 46' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 48' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 49' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 53' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gerard Martín |
| 58' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 61' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 65' |
Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 69' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 70' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Roca |
| 71' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 76' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 81' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 82' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo García |
| 84' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 84' |
Real Betis |
Diego Llorente | 0.74 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 85' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frenkie de Jong |
| 89' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 92' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.78 | 0.36 |
| Pablo Fornals AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Aitor Ruibal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| Valentín Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antony AMR | 81 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.02 | 0.81 |
| Natan DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sergi Altimira DMC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Nelson Deossa Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Diego Llorente Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Júnior Firpo Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Pablo García Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrán Torres FW | 90 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.49 | 0.03 | 1.91 |
| Lamine Yamal AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.74 | 0.85 | 1.90 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Eric Garcia DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Roony Bardghji AMR | 74 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 1.41 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Pedri DMC | 69 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.16 |
| Álex Balde DL | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andreas Christensen Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Frenkie de Jong Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| Marc Bernal Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Fermín López Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Jofre Torrents Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |