Real Betis v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 7
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 3
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.77 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.88 – +0.35
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
49.5%
Draw
26.5%
Celta Vigo win
24.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWLDWDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 10.1 xG
conceded 11
from 18.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.76–1.20 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 1.88 xGCelta Vigo 0.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Celta Vigo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Óscar Mingueza |
| 9' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 10' |
 Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 11' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ionut Radu |
| 16' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Durán |
| 29' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 37' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Roca |
| 37' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 40' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 43' |
Celta Vigo |
Álvaro Núñez | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Sotelo |
| 43' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 46' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Marc Roca |
| 48' |
Real Betis |
Héctor Bellerín | 0.19 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Aitor Ruibal |
| 51' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 72' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álvaro Fidalgo |
| 75' |
Celta Vigo |
Javier Rodríguez | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Roca |
| 89' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Bartra |
| 92' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Real Betis |
Sergi Altimira | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 95' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.46 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Valentín Gómez |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aitor Ruibal AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 0.93 |
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Pablo Fornals AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| Júnior Firpo DL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antony Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Valentín Gómez Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.03 |
| Cédric Bakambu Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sergi Altimira Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Alonso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Óscar Mingueza DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Carl Starfelt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Hugo Sotelo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.54 |
| Sergio Carreira DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Pablo Durán FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.56 |
| Ferrán Jutglà FWR | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Hugo Álvarez FWL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.45 |
| Álvaro Núñez DC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Fernando López MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Javier Rodríguez Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilaix Moriba Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Williot Swedberg Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Borja Iglesias Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jones El Abdellaoui Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |