Real Betis v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 12 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 8
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.98 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+0.02 – +0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
54.2%
Draw
23.9%
Elche win
21.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.71–0.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.20–1.03 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 1.98 xGElche 0.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Elche attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 8' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pablo Fornals |
| 21' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 40' |
 Elche |
Hector Fort | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | German Valera |
| 45' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | German Valera |
| 46' |
Elche |
David Affengruber | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Aguado |
| 46' |
Elche |
Gonzalo Villar | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 48' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Grady Diangana |
| 56' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.79 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Valentín Gómez |
| 56' |
Real Betis |
Valentín Gómez | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 57' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antony |
| 58' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 66' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 66' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Natan |
| 67' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 71' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isco |
| 72' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 83' |
Elche |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 93' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Gómez |
| 97' |
Real Betis |
Sergi Altimira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.42 | 0.08 | 0.75 |
| Antony FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Valentín Gómez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 1.24 | 0.50 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sofyan Amrabat MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli FWL | 88 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.37 |
| Pablo Fornals MC | 88 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Júnior Firpo DL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovani Lo Celso MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Isco Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.34 |
| Natan Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Sergi Altimira Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| German Valera DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Gonzalo Villar MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Buba Sangaré DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| André Silva FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hector Fort DMR | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Grady Diangana FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Leo Petrot DC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Victor Chust Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tete Morente Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Adrià Pedrosa Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| John Donald Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |