Real Betis v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 8
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 1
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.02
Set-piece xG
0.27 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-2.31 – -0.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
58.7%
Draw
24.0%
Espanyol win
17.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.86–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.10–1.01 | 2-1 10% | 60% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 2.31 xGEspanyol 0.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Real Betis |
Diego Llorente | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 10' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 11' |
 Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Espanyol |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 24' |
Espanyol |
Urko Gonzalez | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 27' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 28' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 28' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 33' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Real Betis |
Sergi Altimira | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 38' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 48' |
Real Betis |
Sofyan Amrabat | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 56' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 64' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kike García |
| 65' |
Espanyol |
Urko Gonzalez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 69' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Real Betis |
Ezequiel Ávila | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 79' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Real Betis |
Pablo García | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 80' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Espanyol |
Rubén Sánchez | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Real Betis |
Valentín Gómez | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Sofyan Amrabat |
| 93' |
Real Betis |
Pablo García | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aitor Ruibal FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Pablo Fornals MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0.07 | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| Valentín Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Sofyan Amrabat MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.27 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Sergi Altimira MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| Antony FWR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ezequiel Ávila Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pablo García Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Clemens Riedel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pol Lozano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Edu Expósito AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Cyril Ngonge MR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Tyrhys Dolan ML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kike García Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Rubén Sánchez Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ramón Terrats Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |