Real Betis v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 17 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 8
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
9 – 3
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-1.61 – -0.33
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
54.1%
Draw
22.4%
Getafe win
23.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLWWWDWL last 10
scored 18
from 19.0 xG
conceded 15
from 19.5 xG
Getafe are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWLDDLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 7.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.89–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 2.61 xGGetafe 0.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 4' |
 Real Betis |
Troy Parrott | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 14' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ángel Ortiz |
| 20' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 20' |
Real Betis |
Facundo Bernal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Getafe |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 29' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nelson Deossa |
| 30' |
Real Betis |
Facundo Bernal | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 32' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Real Betis |
Facundo Bernal | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ángel Ortiz |
| 40' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Natan |
| 44' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Troy Parrott |
| 44' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 47' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 48' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 50' |
Getafe |
Iván Azón | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | David Soria |
| 50' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Troy Parrott |
| 67' |
Getafe |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 77' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rodrigo Riquelme |
| 84' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Getafe |
Iván Azón | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Getafe |
Alberto Risco | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iván Azón |
| 93' |
Real Betis |
Dani Ceballos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nemanja Gudelj DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mario Martín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Iván Azón FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Zaid Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Orel Mangala MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francho Serrano MR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrés García DR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Martín Satriano ML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Davinchi DL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Mojica Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Enes Ünal Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastián Boselli Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Risco Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Óscar López Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1.24 | 0.00 | 1.78 |
| Facundo Bernal DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Nelson Deossa DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.83 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentín Gómez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| Júnior Firpo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 75 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.04 | 0.54 |
| Troy Parrott FW | 75 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| Isco AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.63 | 0.05 | 0.67 |
| Ángel Ortiz DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Héctor Bellerín Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.70 |
| Dani Ceballos Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |