Real Betis v Levante — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 23 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 15
On target
8 – 7
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.47
Goals − xG
+0.05 – -1.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
58.6%
Draw
23.1%
Levante win
18.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Levante are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WDLWWWLLDW last 10
scored 17
from 17.8 xG
conceded 16
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.77–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.08–1.16 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 1.95 xGLevante 2.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Levante attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Real Betis |
Antony | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 4' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 7' |
 Levante |
Kareem Tunde | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 12' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Levante |
Kareem Tunde | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Iván Romero |
| 17' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antony |
| 24' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 35' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Sánchez |
| 35' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 44' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pablo Martínez |
| 48' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tai Abed |
| 49' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 49' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 51' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 51' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 52' |
Levante |
Tai Abed | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 58' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 59' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 64' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 67' |
Real Betis |
Diego Llorente | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Antony |
| 67' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 70' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 70' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 74' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 74' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 80' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Roca |
| 85' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ezequiel Ávila |
| 87' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ugo Raghouber |
| 94' |
Levante |
Tai Abed | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Etta Eyong |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.02 | 0.52 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Adrián GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.57 | 0.09 | 0.69 |
| Pablo Fornals DMC | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 0.54 |
| Natan DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Isco AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Giovani Lo Celso Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Valentín Gómez Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ezequiel Ávila Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Espí FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pablo Martínez DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Matías Moreno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1.07 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.24 | 1.49 |
| Iván Romero AML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.03 | 1.46 |
| Kareem Tunde AMR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kervin Arriaga DMC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Tai Abed Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| Oriol Rey Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Iker Losada Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ugo Raghouber Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Etta Eyong Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 |