Real Betis v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 14
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.20
Goals − xG
+0.18 – -0.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
57.2%
Draw
23.9%
Mallorca win
18.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWWDWLD last 10
scored 16
from 18.2 xG
conceded 14
from 17.9 xG
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.68–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.74–0.86 | 1-0 13% | 48% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 2.82 xGMallorca 0.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Mallorca attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 9' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 17' |
 Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 19' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 22' |
Mallorca |
Mateo Joseph | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 26' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 33' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Héctor Bellerín |
| 36' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Antony |
| 38' |
Mallorca |
Mateo Joseph | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Morlanes |
| 47' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 52' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Samú Costa |
| 57' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 59' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jan Virgili |
| 60' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 61' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 65' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 67' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 70' |
Mallorca |
Jan Virgili | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 77' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Virgili |
| 81' |
Mallorca |
Takuma Asano | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Torre |
| 82' |
Mallorca |
Samú Costa | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Torre |
| 86' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo García |
| 88' |
Real Betis |
Pablo García | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 90' |
Mallorca |
Javi Llabrés | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Valjent |
| 92' |
Real Betis |
Pablo García | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1.14 | 0.62 | 1.76 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sofyan Amrabat DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| Antony AMR | 86 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 1.34 |
| Giovani Lo Celso AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1.89 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 72 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.12 | 1.00 |
| Pablo Fornals DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Valentín Gómez Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Aitor Ruibal Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Marc Roca Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nelson Deossa Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Pablo García Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samú Costa DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lucas Bergström GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Jan Virgili AML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Mateo Joseph AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Sergi Darder AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Manuel Morlanes DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Takuma Asano Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Omar Mascarell Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Torre Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| Javi Llabrés Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdón Prats Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |