Real Betis v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 28 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 12
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
6 – 9
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.15
Goals − xG
+0.81 – -0.58
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
49.0%
Draw
21.5%
Osasuna win
29.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLDWWL last 10
scored 12
from 15.1 xG
conceded 17
from 12.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.59–1.16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.79–1.04 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 1.19 xGOsasuna 0.58 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Osasuna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 14' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
 Osasuna |
Moi Gómez | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 24' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 27' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Roca |
| 28' |
Osasuna |
Valentin Rosier | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Roca |
| 37' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pablo Fornals |
| 43' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Boyomo |
| 45' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sheraldo Becker |
| 47' |
Osasuna |
Alejandro Catena | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jon Moncayola |
| 48' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ante Budimir |
| 50' |
Real Betis |
Sofyan Amrabat | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 51' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Osasuna |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Moi Gómez |
| 55' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sofyan Amrabat |
| 73' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abel Bretones |
| 74' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 85' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Asier Osambela |
| 88' |
Osasuna |
Sheraldo Becker | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Boyomo |
| 91' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Abel Bretones |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.42 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.43 | 0.69 |
| Sofyan Amrabat DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.36 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pau López GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentín Gómez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Fornals AMC | 81 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.87 |
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 60 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.02 | 0.72 |
| Aitor Ruibal Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Sergi Altimira Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ángel Ortiz Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Abel Bretones DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raul García FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Valentin Rosier DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jon Moncayola MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Moi Gómez MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Lucas Torró MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jorge Herrando DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sheraldo Becker Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Víctor Muñoz Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Iker Muñoz Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Asier Osambela Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Kike Barja Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |