Real Betis v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 21 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 9
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.70 – -1.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
53.3%
Draw
23.5%
Real Sociedad win
23.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWWDWLD last 10
scored 16
from 18.2 xG
conceded 14
from 17.9 xG
Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LLWDWLWWWW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 18
from 17.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.75–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.98–1.16 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 1.70 xGReal Sociedad 1.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Orri Óskarsson |
| 22' |
 Real Betis |
Antony | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 24' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Riquelme |
| 29' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yangel Herrera |
| 43' |
Real Betis |
Facundo Bernal | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Riquelme |
| 46' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 50' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 50' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Aramburu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 53' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 54' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Bartra |
| 56' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 62' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 64' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fran García |
| 66' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.56 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 66' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 67' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 67' |
Real Sociedad |
Sergio Gómez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Marchal |
| 74' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo García |
| 76' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Beñat Turrientes |
| 78' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 78' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fran García |
| 82' |
Real Sociedad |
Orri Óskarsson | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antony |
| 86' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 90' |
Real Betis |
Pablo García | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nelson Deossa |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.13 | 1.25 |
| Pablo Fornals AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.56 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Fran García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 82 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.68 | 0.82 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme AML | 75 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Facundo Bernal DMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Isco Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.07 | 0.81 |
| Pablo García Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| Nelson Deossa Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orri Óskarsson FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.02 | 0.85 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Soler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Luka Sucic AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Yangel Herrera DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| Takefusa Kubo AMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ander Barrenetxea AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Alex Marchal Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Beñat Turrientes Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Arsen Zakharyan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |