Real Betis v Valencia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 February 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 15
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.81 – 0.97
Goals − xG
-0.20 – -0.95
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
62.4%
Draw
21.4%
Valencia win
16.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLWWWDWL last 10
scored 18
from 19.0 xG
conceded 15
from 19.5 xG
Valencia are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLLLLWLDDL last 10
scored 7
from 10.9 xG
conceded 17
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.05–0.95 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.80–1.07 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 2.20 xGValencia 1.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Valencia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 6' |
 Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 8' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | José Gayá |
| 9' |
Valencia |
Copete | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 12' |
Valencia |
Pepelu | 0.74 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 14' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ezequiel Ávila |
| 17' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lucas Beltrán |
| 20' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nelson Deossa |
| 22' |
Real Betis |
Ezequiel Ávila | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 26' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pepelu |
| 29' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 38' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 45' |
Valencia |
Dimitri Foulquier | 0.11 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eray Cömert |
| 47' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 47' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdessamad Ezzalzouli |
| 59' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 68' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 70' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ricardo Rodríguez |
| 70' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 75' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
| 77' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Diego López |
| 78' |
Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Roca |
| 87' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 96' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ángel Ortiz |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.04 | 0.81 |
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| Nelson Deossa AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.70 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.74 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.71 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Aitor Ruibal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.72 |
| Ezequiel Ávila FW | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.09 | 0.72 |
| Sergi Altimira DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Pablo Fornals Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.01 | 0.53 |
| Pablo García Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ángel Ortiz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Valentín Gómez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Ugrinic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.73 |
| Dimitri Foulquier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| Eray Cömert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.50 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| José Gayá DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.31 |
| Copete DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Luis Rioja MR | 79 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.37 |
| Pepelu MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.04 | 0.62 |
| Lucas Beltrán FW | 74 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.07 | 0.72 |
| Hugo Duro FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Umar Sadiq Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Baptiste Santamaria Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| André Almeida Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Diego López Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| César Tárrega Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |