Real Betis v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 9
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
4 – 6
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.28 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.65 – -1.18
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Betis win
40.0%
Draw
24.7%
Villarreal win
35.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLWWWDWL last 10
scored 18
from 19.0 xG
conceded 15
from 19.5 xG
Villarreal are finishing sharply below their chances — 9.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DDLLLWWLDW last 10
scored 15
from 24.0 xG
conceded 14
from 14.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.61–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.74–1.58 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Betis 1.35 xGVillarreal 1.18 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Betis attacking right
Villarreal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Real Betis |
Ezequiel Ávila | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 7' |
 Villarreal |
Gerard Moreno | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alfonso |
| 12' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sergi Altimira |
| 12' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergi Altimira |
| 15' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 21' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alfonso |
| 34' |
Villarreal |
Renato Veiga | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Parejo |
| 39' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.28 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 45' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Villarreal |
Tajon Buchanan | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 49' |
Villarreal |
Tajon Buchanan | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Villarreal |
Tajon Buchanan | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gerard Moreno |
| 56' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 60' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 62' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ezequiel Ávila |
| 66' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Villarreal |
Tajon Buchanan | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Pepe |
| 68' |
Real Betis |
Marc Bartra | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergi Altimira |
| 82' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Antony |
| 84' |
Villarreal |
Sergi Cardona | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Parejo |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aitor Ruibal DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.04 | 0.64 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Pablo Fornals AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.86 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentín Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sergi Altimira DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovani Lo Celso AML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ezequiel Ávila FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Pablo García Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ángel Ortiz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georges Mikautadze FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.04 | 0.73 |
| Renato Veiga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Daniel Parejo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.45 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Juan Foyth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Alberto Moleiro ML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Tajon Buchanan MR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Gerard Moreno FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Pau Navarro DR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alfonso DL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| Sergi Cardona Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Santiago Mouriño Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nicolas Pepe Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Ayoze Pérez Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Macià Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |