Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 13
On target
8 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
2.26 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.03 – +0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
55.1%
Draw
25.3%
Atletico Madrid win
19.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.75–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.11–1.28 | 2-1 10% | 66% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 2.97 xGAtletico Madrid 1.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Atletico Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Real Madrid |
Daniel Carvajal | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 7' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 8' |
Atletico Madrid |
Marcos Llorente | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Griezmann |
| 8' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 11' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcos Llorente |
| 13' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Carvajal |
| 21' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.52 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arda Güler |
| 21' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.81 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 28' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 30' |
Atletico Madrid |
Ademola Lookman | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Griezmann |
| 32' |
Atletico Madrid |
Ademola Lookman | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Giuliano Simeone |
| 41' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daniel Carvajal |
| 43' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 51' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 54' |
Real Madrid |
Antonio Rüdiger | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 59' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matteo Ruggeri |
| 61' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arda Güler |
| 64' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giuliano Simeone |
| 65' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nahuel Molina | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Julián Álvarez |
| 71' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 80' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Nahuel Molina |
| 82' |
Real Madrid |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Real Madrid |
Fran García | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 91' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Koke |
| 92' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matteo Ruggeri |
| 94' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Baena |
| 95' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Baena | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolás González |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Antonio Rüdiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Fran García DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Andriy Lunin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Vinícius Júnior FW | 88 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2.13 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Federico Valverde MR | 78 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Arda Güler ML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| Brahim Diaz FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Daniel Carvajal DR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Thiago Pitarch MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold Sub | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eduardo Camavinga Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jude Bellingham Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Fernández Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 1.08 |
| Julián Álvarez FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 1.40 |
| Juan Musso GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| David Hancko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Matteo Ruggeri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1.24 |
| Koke MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.22 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.63 | 1.11 |
| Ademola Lookman ML | 58 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.09 | 0.70 |
| Antoine Griezmann FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| Johnny Cardoso MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Robin Le Normand DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Giménez Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Alexander Sørloth Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nahuel Molina Sub | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Nicolás González Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Álex Baena Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.08 |