Real Madrid v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 October 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 15
On target
10 – 5
Shots in box
17 – 6
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
2.02 – 0.20
Goals − xG
-1.41 – -0.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
40.9%
Draw
21.6%
Barcelona win
37.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.88–1.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.24–2.25 | 2-2 7% | 83% | 80% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 3.41 xGBarcelona 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedri |
| 8' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 19' |
Barcelona |
Pau Cubarsí | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frenkie de Jong |
| 21' |
 Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jude Bellingham |
| 24' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 29' |
Real Madrid |
Dean Huijsen | 0.28 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 31' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eduardo Camavinga |
| 33' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eric Garcia |
| 34' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 36' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Álvaro Fernández |
| 37' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marcus Rashford |
| 39' |
Real Madrid |
Eder Militão | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 42' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.66 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Eder Militão |
| 45' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 46' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 47' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 49' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Real Madrid |
Eder Militão | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 51' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.74 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 51' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 52' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 54' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedri |
| 62' |
Barcelona |
Eric Garcia | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedri |
| 63' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 65' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 66' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 70' |
Barcelona |
Jules Koundé | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 79' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 79' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 82' |
Barcelona |
Ronald Araújo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pau Cubarsí |
| 87' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eduardo Camavinga |
| 94' |
Barcelona |
Marc Casadó | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dani Ceballos |
| 97' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fermín López AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| Lamine Yamal AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| Pedri DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.71 |
| Wojciech Szczesny GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Álex Balde DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Frenkie de Jong DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Ferrán Torres FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Eric Garcia DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Marc Casadó Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ronald Araújo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Roony Bardghji Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gerard Martín Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1.30 | 0.43 | 0.96 |
| Jude Bellingham MR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.99 | 0.38 | 1.11 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| Eder Militão DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.66 | 0.38 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Eduardo Camavinga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.80 |
| Álvaro Fernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.52 |
| Vinícius Júnior ML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 0.98 |
| Federico Valverde DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| Arda Güler MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Brahim Diaz Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Rodrygo Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Daniel Carvajal Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonzalo García Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Dani Ceballos Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |