Real Madrid v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 8
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.71
Goals − xG
-0.18 – -0.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
64.6%
Draw
17.9%
Espanyol win
17.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.03–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.50–0.92 | 2-0 10% | 67% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 2.18 xGEspanyol 0.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 12' |
 Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Fernández |
| 14' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javi Puado |
| 21' |
Real Madrid |
Eder Militão | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Federico Valverde |
| 26' |
Real Madrid |
Daniel Carvajal | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 26' |
Real Madrid |
Raúl | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eder Militão |
| 40' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Carvajal |
| 44' |
Espanyol |
Fernando Calero | 0.60 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vinícius Júnior |
| 51' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Franco Mastantuono |
| 57' |
Espanyol |
Urko Gonzalez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Cabrera |
| 65' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arda Güler |
| 65' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 66' |
Real Madrid |
Eder Militão | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arda Güler |
| 69' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Fernández |
| 71' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Espanyol |
Charles Pickel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoniu Roca |
| 89' |
Espanyol |
Antoniu Roca | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jofre Carreras |
| 94' |
Espanyol |
Antoniu Roca | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luca Koleosho |
| 94' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Romero |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 1.38 | 0.13 | 1.60 |
| Daniel Carvajal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.76 |
| Eder Militão DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.78 |
| Raúl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Álvaro Fernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Federico Valverde MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.76 |
| Vinícius Júnior ML | 80 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 1.38 |
| Franco Mastantuono MR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| Gonzalo García FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Arda Güler Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| Brahim Diaz Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrygo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jude Bellingham Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eduardo Camavinga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Urko Gonzalez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Javi Puado AML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Edu Expósito AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.60 | 0.03 |
| Pol Lozano DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tyrhys Dolan AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charles Pickel Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Luca Koleosho Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Kike García Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoniu Roca Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.11 |