Real Madrid v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 February 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 6
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.36 – -0.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
72.4%
Draw
15.6%
Girona win
12.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.70–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 2.36 xGGirona 0.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oriol Romeu |
| 5' |
 Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 6' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 9' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Donny van de Beek |
| 15' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 23' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 26' |
Real Madrid |
Luka Modric | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 27' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Modric |
| 29' |
Girona |
Donny van de Beek | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 31' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 32' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 33' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 40' |
Real Madrid |
Luka Modric | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 51' |
Real Madrid |
Lucas Vázquez | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 51' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Modric |
| 57' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Ferland Mendy |
| 61' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodrygo |
| 65' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 74' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eduardo Camavinga |
| 79' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luka Modric |
| 79' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.16 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Girona |
Yáser Asprilla | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bojan Miovski |
| 82' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 85' |
Girona |
Yáser Asprilla | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eduardo Camavinga |
| 91' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dani Ceballos |
| 92' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Endrick |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Tsygankov FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Arnau Martinez MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| David López DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez ML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Iván Martín MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Oriol Romeu MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Donny van de Beek AMC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Arthur Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yáser Asprilla Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jhon Solis Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Bojan Miovski Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1.03 | 0.65 | 1.81 |
| Vinícius Júnior FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.85 | 0.11 | 1.16 |
| Rodrygo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.12 | 0.59 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Lucas Vázquez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Raúl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Ferland Mendy DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.68 |
| Luka Modric DMC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0.04 | 0.52 | 1.14 |
| David Alaba DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Brahim Diaz AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Eduardo Camavinga Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| Dani Ceballos Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Antonio Rüdiger Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Endrick Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.41 |