Real Madrid v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 13
On target
9 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
1.52 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+1.99 – +0.03
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
63.8%
Draw
19.4%
Real Betis win
16.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid have scored 25 from 25.2 expected and conceded 10 from 11.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWWLWWLWWW last 10
scored 25
from 25.2 xG
conceded 10
from 11.3 xG
Real Betis are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWWDWLD last 10
scored 16
from 18.2 xG
conceded 14
from 17.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.13–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.38–1.19 | 2-1 9% | 69% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 3.01 xGReal Betis 0.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 11' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Real Madrid |
Eduardo Camavinga | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 19' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.50 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Rodrygo |
| 21' |
 Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aitor Ruibal |
| 23' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 25' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 25' |
Real Madrid |
Eduardo Camavinga | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Fernández |
| 33' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 39' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Ángel Ortiz |
| 43' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Federico Valverde |
| 55' |
Real Madrid |
Raúl | 0.33 | From Corner | — | Goal | Rodrygo |
| 57' |
Real Madrid |
Eduardo Camavinga | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Real Betis |
Marc Roca | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 63' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 63' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 65' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Aitor Ruibal |
| 67' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rodrigo Riquelme |
| 72' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.18 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Rodrygo |
| 73' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 75' |
Real Betis |
Rodrigo Riquelme | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Natan |
| 76' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 81' |
Real Madrid |
Franco Mastantuono | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Valverde |
| 81' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.65 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Arda Güler |
| 90' |
Real Madrid |
Federico Valverde | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Franco Mastantuono |
| 92' |
Real Madrid |
Fran García | 0.41 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Federico Valverde |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.05 | 0.68 |
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Marc Bartra DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.67 |
| Pablo Fornals AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Marc Roca DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Aitor Ruibal AML | 69 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| Nelson Deossa DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ángel Ortiz DR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Giovani Lo Celso Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Héctor Bellerín Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Sergi Altimira Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo García Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzalo García FW | 90 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Raúl DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Federico Valverde DR | 90 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 0.97 |
| Eduardo Camavinga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jude Bellingham ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.46 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Álvaro Fernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.31 |
| Antonio Rüdiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Rodrygo MR | 79 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.20 | 1.01 | 0.25 |
| Vinícius Júnior FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| Franco Mastantuono Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.90 |
| Arda Güler Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| Dani Ceballos Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Fran García Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ferland Mendy Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |