Real Madrid v Real Oviedo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 14 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 9
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.25 – -1.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Real Madrid win
71.6%
Draw
17.5%
Real Oviedo win
10.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.26–0.75 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.74–0.87 | 2-0 10% | 70% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Real Madrid 1.75 xGReal Oviedo 1.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Real Madrid attacking right
Real Oviedo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Real Madrid |
Franco Mastantuono | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gonzalo García |
| 7' |
 Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Colombatto |
| 20' |
Real Madrid |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 23' |
Real Madrid |
Brahim Diaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nacho Vidal |
| 30' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Fernández |
| 32' |
Real Madrid |
Brahim Diaz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gonzalo García |
| 34' |
Real Madrid |
Eduardo Camavinga | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gonzalo García |
| 37' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ilyas Chaira |
| 37' |
Real Oviedo |
Nacho Vidal | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Viñas |
| 41' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aurelien Tchouameni |
| 41' |
Real Madrid |
Vinícius Júnior | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Real Madrid |
Gonzalo García | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Brahim Diaz |
| 45' |
Real Madrid |
Brahim Diaz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
| 48' |
Real Madrid |
Aurelien Tchouameni | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Franco Mastantuono |
| 49' |
Real Madrid |
Franco Mastantuono | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Trent Alexander-Arnold |
| 53' |
Real Madrid |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rahim Alhassane |
| 57' |
Real Madrid |
Álvaro Fernández | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Brahim Diaz |
| 62' |
Real Oviedo |
Nacho Vidal | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 68' |
Real Oviedo |
Santiago Colombatto | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Franco Mastantuono |
| 74' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eduardo Camavinga |
| 79' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kylian Mbappe-Lottin |
| 83' |
Real Oviedo |
Haissem Hassan | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Real Oviedo |
Haissem Hassan | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eric Bailly |
| 90' |
Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vinícius Júnior |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Fernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.02 | 1.00 |
| Vinícius Júnior FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| Eduardo Camavinga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.34 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Alaba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Raúl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Brahim Diaz ML | 77 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.68 | 1.16 |
| Franco Mastantuono MR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Gonzalo García FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.55 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Jude Bellingham Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Daniel Carvajal Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.12 | 0.36 |
| Daniel Yáñez Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| César Palacios Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Reina MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| Federico Viñas FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| Santiago Colombatto MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.60 |
| Rahim Alhassane DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.52 |
| Eric Bailly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| David Costas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nacho Vidal DR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.05 | 1.00 |
| Nicolás Fonseca MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Thiago Fernández FWL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Ilyas Chaira FWR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| Santiago Cazorla Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Haissem Hassan Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lucas Ahijado Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Pablo Agudín Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |